As April Approaches: A Look at the NHL Landscape
With the calendar set to turn to April, we find ourselves just three weeks away from the conclusion of the regular season. This means our time for these columns is running short, and the finish line is finally in sight. It’s reasonable to anticipate that the upcoming weeks will focus heavily on the various playoff races, unless, of course, every bubble team in the Eastern Conference decides to fold their franchises to sidestep a playoff spot that nobody seems eager to claim. However, in this brief calm before the storm, a tradition worth revisiting is acknowledging the teams that have managed to navigate the entire season without landing in either the top or bottom five.
This truly represents the heart of the pack, and interestingly, the statistics this year highlight a pleasing symmetry: 11 different teams have appeared in the top five, while another 11 have found themselves in the bottom five at some point. This leaves us with exactly 10 teams that haven’t appeared on either list throughout the entire season. Let’s categorize these teams for better clarity.
Bonus Five: Teams That Haven’t Made the Top or Bottom Five All Year
- 5. The Competent Teams That Could Still Reach the Top Five: While it’s challenging to break into either list this late in the season, two teams have performed well enough at various points to be in contention for the top five: the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Both are in a fierce battle with the Florida Panthers for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. Despite having similar records, the Panthers have enjoyed a more prominent position in the top five, largely due to their recent playoff success. However, if either the Lightning or Maple Leafs can catch fire and dominate down the stretch, they could make a compelling case for a top-five spot.
- 4. The Teams That Aren’t Near the Top Five But Are Content with Their Progress: Four teams fall into this category. The Los Angeles Kings exemplify a squad that’s been consistently solid, with occasional flashes of greatness but never quite close to the top five. The Ottawa Senators and St. Louis Blues also warrant mention as they’ve had ups and downs but look poised for playoff contention. Lastly, the Calgary Flames represent a nice story, even if their momentum seems to be waning as the season comes to a close. Finishing 10th in the West might not feel like a major achievement, but this is a team many of us underestimated prior to the season, and they’ve spent the majority of the year proving us wrong.
- 3. The True Middle-of-the-Pack Teams: The New York Islanders and the Utah team (presumably referring to the minor leagues or a specific context) have spent the season quietly competing, hovering around the playoff bubble without ever appearing particularly threatening. Throughout the year, I can’t recall a single week when either team seemed like a legitimate contender for either list; they’ve simply been fine.
- 2. The Disaster: This title goes to the Boston Bruins. They began the season sluggishly, fired their head coach, never managed to get more than a couple of games above a .500 record, and faded considerably in the second half. After selling off assets at the trade deadline, they are now plummeting toward a dismal finish. Surprisingly, they find themselves closer to the bottom of the standings than anticipated, leaving a small but real chance that they could end up in the bottom five by the end of the season. What a chaotic season for them.
- 1. The Mystery Team: Finally, we arrive at the Vancouver Canucks. Their season has fallen far short of expectations, yet they remain in the playoff mix, albeit barely. This is despite a torrent of drama, including trading away one of their best players, grappling with key injuries, and a coach who often appears on the verge of a breakdown. Every game they play feels like a roller coaster ride. While they clearly aren’t among the five best or worst teams in the league, that’s about the only conclusion I can draw.
On that note, let’s take a moment to appreciate an exhilarating game:
The 2024-25 Vancouver Canucks: A lot of things, but definitely not boring.
A bonus note: We successfully avoided the dreaded “team that appeared on both lists” this year. Kudos to all; we’ve managed to clear the lowest possible bar there is. Now, let’s move on to this week’s rankings…
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Nope, still doesn’t feel right in that uniform. For the second consecutive week, no Panthers in the top five as I steer clear of the Atlantic Division. We’ll figure this out eventually, but it’s crucial to take the time to assess the situation.
- 5. Carolina Hurricanes (45-24-4, +44 true goals differential*): They’re looking strong, especially as the New Jersey Devils seem to be faltering. Thursday’s matchup against the Washington Capitals feels like a preview of a potential second-round clash.
- 4. Vegas Golden Knights (45-20-8, +57): Six consecutive wins, all in regulation and by a combined score of 28-11, indicate that this team is hitting its stride at precisely the right moment. Upcoming home games against the Edmonton Oilers and Winnipeg Jets will serve as excellent tests.
- 3. Washington Capitals (47-17-9, +72): Despite three straight losses, including one to the first-place Jets and another to the last-place Sabres, there’s no panic here. These rankings look at the long term, and Capitals fans have had to be patient while we took our time getting on board. We’re not bailing ship after one rough week, but let’s aim for a bounce-back tomorrow in Boston, shall we?
- 2. Dallas Stars (48-21-4, +63): I’m feeling uneasy about their first-round matchup and the injury to Miro Heiskanen. Plus, having two teams from the same division in the top spots raises concerns. Nevertheless, they just keep winning, so…
- 1. Winnipeg Jets (51-19-4, +83): This absolutely has to happen, and if it does, we can blame Murat for it.
*Goals differential calculated without accounting for shootout decisions, which the NHL does for some inexplicable reason.
Not Ranked: Minnesota Wild
Wait, is this now the playoff spot that’s up for grabs in the West? It certainly seems that way. The Wild enter the week sitting in seventh place, tied with the Blues at 87 points but holding an advantage in points percentage due to having a game in hand. However, this shift almost feels like a formality, as the Blues continue their red-hot streak while the Wild seem to be bogged down. Their recent loss to the Devils marked their third defeat in four games, effectively undoing the progress made during a brief three-game winning streak the week before. The prospect of being overtaken for seventh place isn’t ideal, but it’s far from an emergency.
The Wild are still sitting at a solid 90 percent chance of making the playoffs according to yesterday’s projections, and that number should rise with the Canucks’ loss. They maintain a six-point lead over Vancouver, with the same number of games played, and seven points ahead of the Flames, who have two games in hand. They’re in a decent position. Nevertheless, things feel precarious after what seemed like a guaranteed playoff spot just a short while ago.
The alarm bells have begun to ring in earnest, but the slump has extended beyond a few days. After finishing the first half of the season at an impressive 26-11-4, the Wild have struggled with a 15-17-1 record since then, translating to a dismal 77-point pace. The bigger question may not be whether they’ll make the playoffs, but whether they should even bother trying, as they don’t currently appear to pose much of a threat.
They have a pivotal three-game road trip against the Devils, Rangers, and Islanders this week before returning home to face the Stars and Sharks. Then comes their final road trip of the regular season, a crucial two-game swing against the Flames and Canucks that could be decisive. Or it could be inconsequential if the Wild can accumulate enough points this week to secure their playoff spot before “scary” turns into “terrifying.”
The Bottom Five
The five teams heading toward the bottom of the standings and the best lottery odds for a top pick that could be James Hagens, Matthew Schaefer, or someone else entirely.
- 5. Buffalo Sabres (31-36-6, -24): Sabres fans, how do we feel about this recent warm streak with nothing left to play for? Is it a good sign for the future, or an infuriating sabotage of draft picks? (For what it’s worth, there is a correct answer here.)
- 4. Philadelphia Flyers (30-36-9, -49): They made headlines this week after firing John Tortorella following a bizarre stretch that included two blowout losses, some peculiar postgame comments, and an apparent altercation involving Cam York. Kevin has been on top of this story, detailing what happened behind the scenes, the situation with York, and the contenders for the full-time head coaching position, which includes several significant names currently employed elsewhere.
- 3. Nashville Predators (27-38-8, -51): If you haven’t seen it yet, be sure to check out Pierre’s conversation with Barry Trotz about how they plan to start digging out of this mess.
- 2. Chicago Blackhawks (21-44-9, -69): There’s nothing left for them to play for, but Hawks fans will have the opportunity to see 2023 first-rounder Oliver Moore as well as 2022 first-rounder Sam Rinzel as they make their NHL debuts in yesterday’s loss to Utah.
- 1. San Jose Sharks (20-44-9, -90): This year has brought little in the way of good news for the Sharks, but fans seeking optimism or a reminder of the bigger picture might enjoy this podcast. (Also, while interpreting The Code is always tricky, I’m fairly certain that someone needs to challenge the Rangers’ team bus.)
Not Ranked: Montreal Canadiens
The losing streak is finally over, so everyone can take a deep breath. Less than two weeks ago, the Canadiens were the hottest team in the league, winning eight of 11 games right after the 4 Nations break. That stretch propelled them past the stagnant teams in the Eastern bubble, making them look like the only squad truly vying for the conference’s eighth seed. After defeating the Senators on March 18, the Canadiens found themselves alone in the final wild-card spot and seemed poised to catch up to Ottawa. However, they followed that victory with five straight losses, conceding 25 goals, including a high-profile matchup against the Blues that resulted in a decisive defeat. They were faltering.
This is the bad news, and it’s quite significant. However, taking a step back reveals a brighter picture. Yes, they might be faltering, but let’s remember that the “it” they’re failing to secure is a playoff spot that few anticipated they would contend for this season. The realistic expectation heading into the year was to play meaningful games (with apologies to Tortorella) and remain close enough to the race to surprise everyone. Now it feels like a disappointment that they haven’t locked in a playoff position with 10 games remaining. It’s easy to overlook how much the expectations have shifted in such a relatively short period.
That said, defeating a solid Panthers team on the road was precisely the kind of win this team needed, especially with a rematch coming up tomorrow in Montreal. It serves as another reminder that dismissing this team has proven to be a poor choice throughout the year.
Will any of this matter if they end up squandering a playoff spot that seemed within reach? I believe it should. That doesn’t mean it won’t sting, because it certainly would. However, if the season was about progress, it has already been undeniably successful, showcasing the Canadiens outpacing teams like the Sabres and Red Wings, who were expected to be years ahead of them. What more could a reasonable fan desire?
Of course, a playoff spot would be ideal. You can’t get this close without focusing on the goal. The good news is that they’re still in contention. They face the Panthers again tomorrow, a tough matchup, but the remainder of the season’s schedule looks relatively manageable. The Bruins, Flyers, and Predators—each of whom is essentially flatlining—are next on the docket. Following those games are matchups against the Red Wings, Senators, and a Saturday night showdown with the Maple Leafs, capped off by a playoff-bound Hurricanes team that might have little left to play for.
The path is clear. None of those games are guaranteed victories, but they are indeed winnable. And at the very least, they are undeniably significant.
(Photo of Marcus Foligno and Arber Xhekaj: Matt Blewett / Imagn Images)
