As the UK gears up to enhance its defence capabilities, industry experts are sounding the alarm about a critical shortage of skilled workers, particularly welders and engineers. With the government planning to increase defence spending to three percent of GDP by the next Parliament, failing to address this skills crisis could lead to significant challenges in meeting the growing demand.
Industry insiders are advocating for the establishment of “shadow factories,” reminiscent of those mobilized before World War II. These factories would tap into the existing workforce from various sectors, such as automotive, to ensure that weapons supply can be ramped up swiftly in times of need.
Andrew Kinniburgh, the director general of Make UK Defence, noted that there are currently around 10,000 vacancies within the UK defence sector, with a pressing need for thousands more welders. The industry has increasingly turned to overseas talent, recruiting skilled welders from countries like Poland, Bulgaria, and the Philippines to fill the gaps left by an ageing domestic workforce.
Kinniburgh remarked to The i Paper, “We’re in desperate need of welders. If you visit the Clyde, for example, you’ll notice that all the signage is in both Polish and English. We simply do not have enough young people entering this field. Our focus should be on cultivating local talent.” He emphasized that small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are particularly affected, as they struggle to compete for the same pool of skilled workers, leading to delays in project delivery timelines.
With the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Britain is set to invest billions more in defence over the next decade. This initiative is part of a broader Strategic Defence Review, aimed at reassessing the armed forces’ current capabilities and the threats facing the UK. The review is expected to be published this spring, coinciding with the European Union’s plans to boost defence capabilities with an €800 billion (£660 billion) increase in production as nations scramble to rearm in response to potential threats from Russia.
Kinniburgh stressed the necessity for a “serious evaluation of skills and education,” pointing out that without addressing the shortage, the government’s ambitious plans for defence spending could fall short. The demand for submarine welders has surged to the extent that some companies are offering pay rates as high as £80 an hour to attract talent.
To combat the skills gap, BAE Systems has launched its own shipbuilding academy and apprenticeship program on the River Clyde in Glasgow. In addition, firms like BAE and Babcock, which is constructing the Type 31 frigates at its Rosyth dockyard, are increasingly adopting robotic welding technologies to enhance production efficiency.
John Howie, Babcock’s chief corporate affairs officer, stated, “We manufacture missile tubes for the ballistic missile submarine programs for both the US and the UK, and we have significantly integrated robotic welding into this process. This innovation has allowed us to achieve productivity levels that are two to three times higher than those reached during the groundbreaking Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carrier program.”
On land, the UK is investing £5 billion into the procurement of 623 Boxer armoured vehicles through the Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land plant in Telford, alongside the Franco-German KNDS site in Stockport. Additionally, 148 Challenger 3 tanks are expected to be operational by 2030, while 589 Ajax armoured vehicles are slated for assembly in Merthyr Tydfil by the end of 2028.
Established defence contractors like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and BAE Systems—often referred to as primes—have dominated the sector for decades. Notably, approximately 70% of defence spending is allocated to businesses outside London and the South East. However, only four percent of this spending was directed towards SMEs in the fiscal year 2023-2024. In response, the government recently announced a new initiative aimed at facilitating greater access for smaller firms to the defence supply chain.
Kinniburgh advocates for increased investment in SMEs and mid-tier companies, particularly in areas such as ammunition production, which has largely been the domain of BAE Systems. In December, the Ministry of Defence conducted war-gaming exercises to explore how the military and industry could sustain personnel on the frontlines amidst ongoing supply chain disruptions and intense combat scenarios.
During a session with the Defence Select Committee on March 4, Kinniburgh emphasized that while the defence sector is not yet operating at a war footing, there is an urgent need to expedite efforts to enhance capacity. He proposed the idea of creating shadow factories, akin to those established during World War II, to ensure that there is available capacity in the supply chain ready for deployment when needed.
From 1935 onwards, shadow factories were constructed across the UK, repurposing automotive plants to manufacture Spitfires, Hurricanes, and Lancaster bombers. Today, the defence sector finds itself in an “arms race” for electrical and software engineers with the fintech industry, Kinniburgh noted.
The skills required for designing advanced technologies, such as hypersonic missile engines and nuclear warheads, are in high demand, yet many potential recruits are being lured away by more lucrative salaries in London’s financial district. Furthermore, the lack of licensed aircraft engineers presents a significant challenge for Affinity, a firm supplying aircraft to the RAF at three training bases.
Affinity’s tradespeople maintain various aircraft models at RAF Cranwell, RAF Buxton, Heath, and RAF Valley. However, the influx of younger workers is dwindling, forcing the company to invest in training programs for its staff while competing against commercial airlines for skilled talent. The post-Brexit regulatory changes from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), which restrict hiring to only licensed aircraft engineers with UK credentials, have further exacerbated the issue.
Alex Davison, business director at Affinity Flying Services, expressed concern, stating, “If we do not close the skills gap and invest as a nation in engineering, we will face significant hurdles in maintaining our current fleet and the new investments we wish to make.”
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence remarked, “This government’s historic increase in defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027 will bolster national security and position defence as a key driver for economic growth across the UK. We are collaborating closely with Skills England to ensure the defence sector has the necessary skills to thrive, which will be a crucial component of our forthcoming Defence Industrial Strategy.”
The Defence Industrial Strategy aims to mobilize the private sector to confront global threats, direct more public investment to British businesses, and create jobs and growth in every nation and region of the UK. A robust UK defence sector is essential for ensuring that Britain remains secure at home and strong abroad.
