A Season of Intrigue: The 2025 Baseball Landscape
The baseball season unfolds like an intricate soap opera, comprising 30 unique narratives that stretch over six thrilling months. Among these, twelve clubs earn the opportunity to extend their stories for an additional month, while only one will achieve the ultimate joy of victory. Each team’s journey is fraught with unexpected injuries, strategic trades, and unpredictable performance shifts, which makes forecasting the season’s outcomes a delightful challenge. This unpredictability is the very essence of baseball, captivating fans and players alike, ensuring that the sport seldom finds itself in a state of monotony.
Here are my top twelve storylines to watch in 2025, culminating in my 39th Annual Dumb World Series Prediction™. Yes, I’ve been making these predictions for that long, and you’d think by now I would have gained some wisdom. Yet, the beauty of baseball continues to humble us all.
The Dodgers: Dynasty or Not?
If there’s a team poised to clinch consecutive World Series titles for the first time since the New York Yankees’ three-peat from 1998 to 2000, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, manager Dave Roberts highlights a crucial point when he states, “We have to get to the second round.” His comment is not merely a throwaway line; it underscores the reality that the Dodgers have faced disappointing exits in the Division Series for three consecutive seasons (2022, 2023, and nearly again in 2024).
The Dodgers are equipped with a depth that is nearly unfathomable this season, making them formidable opponents in the best-of-seven League Championship Series (LCS) and World Series. Manager Dave Roberts celebrates his team’s World Series triumph last October, but even the Dodgers have questions looming over them: What will Shohei Ohtani contribute as a pitcher? How will Mookie Betts perform at shortstop? Can the starting rotation remain healthy? If they can answer these questions positively, they may very well find the innings to support their ambitions.
The regular season may not be the cakewalk many anticipate. The Arizona Diamondbacks present a stronger roster than they have in years under GM Mike Hazen. The San Francisco Giants are optimistic after their Cactus League success, and the San Diego Padres remain a threat, especially if Yu Darvish returns to form. Still, the Dodgers stand as the overwhelming favorites to reclaim the division and potentially secure a second consecutive World Series title. The objective remains: just get them to the second round.
Juan Soto: Worth the Investment?
What will it take for Juan Soto to justify his staggering $51 million annual salary, the average value of his 15-year, $765 million free-agent contract with the New York Mets? According to Fangraphs, one Win Above Replacement (WAR) is worth approximately $8 million, though some estimates suggest it could be as high as $11 to $12 million. Thus, Soto needs to average between 4.25 and 6.4 WAR to validate his hefty price tag. Over the past six seasons, his average fWAR stands at an impressive 6.1, peaking at 8.1 last season. It’s likely the value of 1 WAR will continue to escalate.
This analysis, while insightful, is somewhat simplistic and doesn’t capture Soto’s broader impact on attendance and revenue. The debate continues within the industry about the linearity of WAR measurement; for instance, does increasing from 4 to 5 WAR hold more significance than moving from 0 to 1? Nevertheless, the core idea remains: in the deal’s early years, Soto may provide value that exceeds his $51 million salary. However, the latter years of the contract might reflect a different story.
For now, the Mets are primarily concerned with whether their starting pitching can effectively support a championship chase. The competition within the NL East is fierce, with the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies boasting rotations that appear superior to the Mets’. If Soto can deliver another 8 WAR season at age 26, the Mets will be eager to ensure it doesn’t go to waste.
National League Superiority – Beyond L.A.
With the New York Yankees set to begin the season without 2023 AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole and 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil for at least two months, a compelling case can be made that the National League houses the five best teams in baseball. These include the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Mets, and Diamondbacks. Additionally, other NL clubs such as the Padres, Giants, Cubs, and possibly the Reds and Brewers could prove formidable.
Returning to Roberts’ concern regarding the Division Series, it’s a legitimate worry. The Dodgers could face the Braves’ impressive trio of Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, and Spencer Schwellenbach, or the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez. Even the Diamondbacks boast a potent rotation featuring Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes, and Eduardo Rodriguez. These options only deepen the potential challenges that lie ahead.
Furthermore, the Diamondbacks and Phillies ranked first and fifth in the majors in runs scored last season. Once Ronald Acuña Jr. returns to health, the Braves could regain their offensive dominance. The Mets, too, are expected to make significant contributions to the scoring tally. The willingness of each club’s baseball operations head to take bold actions adds another layer of intrigue, with the Phillies’ Dave Dombrowski and Braves’ Alex Anthopoulos particularly fearless in their decision-making. Meanwhile, Mike Hazen has also shown a capacity for impactful moves, while the Mets’ David Stearns has proven adept at making timely adjustments.
None of these teams will concede easily to the mighty Dodgers.
The AL East: A Wide-Open Contest
Historically, only once in the wild-card era has a division featured five teams finishing at or above .500 — the 2005 NL East, where even the last-place Washington Nationals finished with an 81-81 record. Fangraphs suggests that the 2025 AL East may surpass this feat, projecting all five clubs to finish with winning records.
- The Tampa Bay Rays, despite having the lowest playoff odds in the division, still have a 37.6% chance of reaching the postseason.
- The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays are projected to be in the mid-40s range.
- The Boston Red Sox hold a 54.7% chance, while the Yankees lead at 62.8%.
The Rays excel in pitching and defense but struggled offensively last season, ranking second to last in runs scored. The transition from Tropicana Park to Steinbrenner Field may enhance their offense but could compromise their pitching, especially if outdoor games lead to more rain delays and doubleheaders.
Meanwhile, the Jays have gone all-in for the walk years of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, acquiring right-hander Max Scherzer, outfielder Anthony Santander, second baseman Andrés Giménez, and reliever Jeff Hoffman. The Orioles boast a young core that’s the envy of the league, though their starting pitching remains a question mark. The Red Sox’s rotation is more talented but could be volatile, while their offseason acquisitions have the potential to elevate their competitiveness.
The AL East promises to be one of the most captivating divisions in baseball come 2025.
Major League Baseball in Minor-League Parks
As the season unfolds, it’s worth noting that two teams — the A’s and Rays — are playing in minor-league facilities. However, the situation for the A’s at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento is self-inflicted. In contrast, the Rays are at Steinbrenner Field due to circumstances beyond their control, namely a hurricane that damaged Tropicana Field.
Expect a surge of narratives surrounding the charm of smaller venues, where fans enjoy a closer connection to the game and players are “coping” with fewer amenities. However, the true intrigue lies in how the fan experience in both cities will evolve.
For the Rays, this might solidify their place in Tampa. For the A’s, owner John Fisher may reconsider the wisdom of relocating to the 40th largest television market in Las Vegas, especially when Sacramento offers a 20th largest market, or even returning to the Bay Area market they once abandoned.
Here’s hoping for a Rays-A’s ALCS, regardless of the venue. In the A’s case, the league might reap what it has sown by permitting Fisher to instigate this fiasco. It will certainly be a moment of reckoning.
The Trade Deadline: Spotlight on Sandy Alcántara
With the playoff races expected to be tight, the trade deadline could significantly influence the postseason picture. Sandy Alcántara, the ace of the Miami Marlins, will likely be a focal point of trade rumors as the schedule approaches July. His impressive performance in spring training — 12 1/3 innings with no earned runs, 10 strikeouts, and a fastball touching 100 mph — suggests he is recovering well from Tommy John surgery.
With salaries of $17.3 million in 2025 and 2026, along with a $21 million club option for 2027, Alcántara is a valuable asset for any team considering a playoff push. The Marlins, known for their payroll constraints, are likely to move him, despite the potential for a grievance from the Players Association.
Other intriguing trade candidates include Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr., projecting to be the best hitter available, and the often-injured Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels. Trout, while a generational talent, has faced injury setbacks, averaging only 67 games over the last four seasons. He turns 34 this August, and while he could still perform at a high level, his no-trade clause and substantial salary could complicate matters.
If Trout manages to stay healthy, the trade deadline could become particularly captivating, provided Angels owner Arte Moreno is willing to play ball.
Aging Aces: Defying Time
Imagine a Hall of Fame induction ceremony in 2031 featuring Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander. This scenario is plausible if this season marks the end for each of these legendary pitchers — a concept Verlander, in particular, is reluctant to consider. At 42, Verlander is 38 wins shy of the coveted 300 milestone, which he openly aims to achieve. After making only 17 starts last season due to shoulder and neck issues, he appears rejuvenated this spring with his new team, the Giants.
Scherzer, 40, faces a similar path, having made just nine starts last season due to injuries. He is also looking sharp with his new club, the Blue Jays, though lingering thumb soreness complicates matters, making it painful for him to grip the ball post-throwing. He fears that pushing through this discomfort could lead to shoulder problems.
Kershaw, the youngest of the trio at 37, didn’t pitch at all this spring while recovering from surgeries on his left toe and knee. He aims to make a more meaningful contribution this season, hoping to retire on his own terms rather than have the game dictate his exit.
All three of these veterans are first-ballot Hall of Famers, but the question remains: When will they hang up their cleats?
Rookies: The New Wave Approaches
Roki Sasaki is expected to capture the spotlight, though the expectations for the Dodgers’ right-hander are tempered. Team officials view Sasaki as a developing talent who needs to refine his slider as a third pitch to complement his fastball and split. At just 23, he isn’t expected to pitch 160 innings, having reached 129 1/3 innings in Japan back in 2022.
This year’s NL rookie class may not match the quality of last season’s, which included standout performers like Pittsburgh Pirates righty Paul Skenes, Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill, and Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio. However, intriguing prospects like Nationals right fielder Dylan Crews, Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler, and Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw are on the horizon. Shaw, in particular, is one to watch as the Cubs could have given him more development time by signing free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman.
As Cam Smith transitions from third base to right field with the Houston Astros, Cubs fans may grow increasingly frustrated if one of the players traded for Kyle Tucker proves to be a superior talent than Shaw. Smith, the Cubs’ first-round pick out of Florida State last year, is a strong candidate for the AL Rookie of the Year if he can replicate his impressive spring training performance. Detroit Tigers righty Jackson Jobe and Red Sox second baseman Kristian Campbell also stand out as potential Rookie of the Year contenders.
AL West: The Astros’ Decline and deGrom’s Ascent?
While the arrival of Smith could bolster the Astros’ chances for a ninth straight postseason appearance, they face significant challenges. The departures of Bregman, Tucker, and reliever Ryan Pressly pose substantial hurdles. Additionally, Jose Altuve’s shift from second base to left field and the introduction of an inexperienced outfielder like Smith in right field complicate matters.
Last season, the Astros rebounded from a dismal 7-19 start to capture their eighth division title in nine years, but their total of 88 wins marked their lowest in a full season since 2016. They were subsequently swept by the Tigers in the wild-card round. While Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes will help offset the losses of Tucker and Bregman, the increased competitiveness of the AL West further complicates their journey.
Fangraphs and PECOTA project the Astros, Texas Rangers, and Seattle Mariners to finish within two games of each other at the top of the division, with PECOTA favoring the Rangers and Fangraphs siding with the Mariners. The Athletics are building around a youthful core, while even the Angels are expected to show improvement. Jacob deGrom’s health will be a major factor for the Rangers, who are counting on the former ace to stay off the injured list. Their rotation will feature rookies Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, alongside a bullpen still finding its footing. Joc Pederson and Jake Burger should help maintain their offensive output from 2023.
The Mariners possess one of the best rotations in the game, yet they need Julio Rodríguez to return to his 2022-23 form and become the impactful player that Bobby Witt Jr. was for the Kansas City Royals last season. Rodríguez’s resurgence could dramatically enhance their offensive capabilities, and if Randy Arozarena emerges as a key contributor, their potential could be even greater.
AL Central: A Repeat Performance?
The AL Central made history last season by becoming the first division to see three teams qualify for the playoffs in a full season. However, repeating this feat in 2025 seems unlikely, yet the unexpected can happen in baseball.
One manager in the division aptly summarized the situation: “Every team other than the White Sox is interesting, but each is sort of on the verge of having issues.” Consider the following:
- The Cleveland Guardians, the division’s most consistent team, have ranked fourth in regular-season wins since 2016. However, they relied heavily on a “bullpen fairy tale” last season, which may be challenging to replicate. They are also replacing the entire right side of their infield following trades of first baseman Josh Naylor and second baseman Andrés Giménez.
- The Kansas City Royals possess a solid athletic foundation, featuring Witt Jr., one of the league’s top talents, and an aggressive front office. The question remains whether they can sustain their pitching performance from last season, where they ranked eighth in ERA.
- The Minnesota Twins face familiar challenges, needing center fielder Byron Buxton, shortstop Carlos Correa, and third baseman Royce Lewis to maintain their health. However, Lewis will start the season on the injured list due to a hamstring strain, and the team is unlikely to boost payroll if additional issues arise. Their three free-agent acquisitions – outfielder Harrison Bader, reliever Danny Coulombe, and first baseman Ty France – totaled just $10.25 million.
- The Detroit Tigers boasted one of the best ERAs in the majors last season and have a potentially stronger pitching staff this year. However, their new additions, including second baseman Gleyber Torres and outfielder Manuel Margot, may not be enough to elevate their offense to an average level, and defensive concerns linger.
Finding the NL Central’s Leading Man
In the NL Central, the leading figure could be any number of players — Tucker with the Cubs, Brewers center fielder Chourio following a stellar rookie season, or Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who may emerge as an MVP candidate. Pirates ace Skenes is also a strong contender for the Cy Young award in his first full season.
However, it’s unlikely to be any of the St. Louis Cardinals, whose most significant accomplishment this season may be trading third baseman Nolan Arenado, right-hander Erick Fedde, and closer Ryan Helsley — moves they should have made already. Unfortunately for Arenado, he utilized his no-trade clause to block a deal with the Astros.
In fact, the dominant presence in the division may be Reds manager Terry Francona, who takes over a talented team that suffered a rash of injuries last season. While the Reds may still need another bat, the return of second baseman Matt McLain and the additions of left fielder Austin Hays, catcher Jose Trevino, and super utilityman Gavin Lux could provide a boost. Their Triple-A bullpen might even outshine their major-league group. With the Brewers remaining relatively inactive during the offseason, the Reds appear poised to take on the role of the NL Central powerhouse that could make life difficult for the Cubs.
Teams Under Pressure
As the season begins, the spotlight shines brightly on multiple teams. The Cubs, led by president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, enter the final year of a five-year contract without having reached the playoffs under his leadership. Owner Tom Ricketts may be inclined to blame Hoyer if the season goes awry.
In the AL, the Blue Jays are heavily invested in 2025, opting to build a top-five payroll rather than trading away Guerrero and Bichette. Team president Mark Shapiro is in the final year of his contract, while GM Ross Atkins has two years remaining. The Jays’ farm system ranks 24th, according to Keith Law from The Athletic.
On the flip side, the Mariners boast the top-ranked farm system but have only made the playoffs once in Jerry Dipoto’s decade-long tenure as head of baseball operations. The Orioles completed their rebuild under Mike Elias, yet they’ve struggled in the postseason, failing to win any playoff games over the past two years. Meanwhile, the Nationals are on track for their sixth consecutive losing season.
As for the Colorado Rockies, whether they face pressure is debatable, as they seem to operate in their own world, consistently drawing over 30,000 fans per game at Coors Field. In contrast, the Phillies are in a precarious position. With many key players aging and facing contract expirations, including catcher J.T. Realmuto and designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, they cannot afford another early postseason exit after two consecutive disappointments.
The time for the Phillies to shine is now, but in reality, all 30 clubs are under pressure. The expansion of the postseason from 10 to 12 teams in 2022 has made it easier for teams to reach the playoffs, yet it has also elevated the stakes for each franchise, leaving little room for excuses.
As we embark on this exciting journey, my prediction is that the Braves will triumph over the Rangers in the World Series. But what do I know? What does anyone truly know? The six-month saga of baseball is about to begin, filled with twists and turns that will keep us all on the edge of our seats.
(Top photo illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Source photos: David Durochik, Cliff Welch, Alejandra Villa Loarca/Getty Images)
