Unprecedented Talks with Hamas: A Diplomatic Effort
The White House has confirmed that it engaged in unprecedented direct negotiations with Hamas, aiming to secure the release of the last remaining American hostages trapped in Gaza. This marks the first time since 1997 that U.S. officials have had direct dialogue with the militant group, a potential diplomatic breakthrough amid the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel concerning the next phase of the ceasefire.
As these historic discussions unfolded, former President Donald Trump took to social media to deliver a stark ultimatum to Hamas. He stated, “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you. Only sick and twisted people keep bodies, and you are sick and twisted!” He further declared, “I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job. Not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”
In response, Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem told Turkey’s Anadolu news agency, “These threats complicate matters regarding the ceasefire agreement and encourage [Israel] to refrain from implementing its terms. Hamas implemented all its obligations under phase one, but Israel is avoiding entering phase two. The U.S. administration is required to pressure the occupation [Israeli government] to enter negotiations for the second phase, as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement.”
A Fragile Ceasefire
The ceasefire agreement, which ended 15 months of intense fighting, resulted in the exchange of 33 Israeli hostages and five Thai captives for approximately 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. This agreement was designed as the initial step in a broader peace process.
The upcoming second phase aims to establish a permanent ceasefire, facilitate the release of remaining hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners, and ensure the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The final phase envisions the return of all deceased hostages and the extensive reconstruction of Gaza, a daunting process expected to take years.
Aerial views captured the moment Palestinians and militants gathered around Red Cross vehicles on the day Hamas handed over the bodies of deceased hostages Oded Lifschitz, Shiri Bibas, and her two children, Kfir and Ariel Bibas (Photo: Reuters).
However, with the first phase officially concluding Saturday, tensions remain elevated. Israel is seeking to extend the current phase by six weeks, while Hamas insists on moving forward with phase two. Although full-scale fighting has not yet resumed to pre-ceasefire levels, Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, cautioned that Trump’s “thuggish behavior is unlikely to work.”
He added, “The challenge is that Trump’s team is trying to make sense of his erratic demands, translating them into something resembling policy—which is almost impossible.” Nevertheless, he acknowledged the significance of Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, meeting with Hamas, stating, “Hamas holds a small but crucial card with the hostages.”
On Wednesday night, Witkoff reportedly met with Hamas leaders and mediators from Egypt and Qatar to discuss post-war governance in Gaza, including potential transitional leadership. However, an Israeli official informed The Jerusalem Post that Israel remains unaware of any progress toward phase two of the hostage deal.
Trump’s Plan: Uncertainty and Rhetoric
Despite the potential for progress in the ceasefire negotiations and hostage release, experts believe that Trump’s unpredictability casts a long shadow over the peace talks. Mekelberg noted, “We all try to read Trump and determine what is serious and what is empty rhetoric. The reality is that Trump has no plan. He believes peace can be dictated by American power alone. When someone does not comply—like [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky]—he reacts unpredictably. [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu understands this and treads carefully around him.”
Recently, Trump claimed that all hell would break loose if the hostages were not released. Mekelberg warned, “The more he does it, the less effective it becomes.” Amid his threats, Trump has previously suggested a desire to “clean” Gaza of Palestinians and reconstruct it as a luxury destination, even sharing an AI-generated image of a futuristic, high-rise Gaza devoid of its Palestinian population.
Experts suggest that Trump’s rhetoric may have diminished Hamas’s incentive to release the remaining hostages, as these hostages remain one of the few bargaining chips that could prevent what many fear might lead to the mass displacement of Palestinians. Palestinian analyst Nour Odeh cautioned that Trump’s comments should not be taken lightly: “It’s not just what he says, but what he repeats. He has consistently called for the reconstruction of Gaza minus the Palestinians. That is the real goal. He is normalizing ethnic cleansing and annexation under the guise of diplomacy.”
Mekelberg added, “‘Finishing the job’ and portraying this as a victory for Trump is not a plan. Who takes over Gaza? How do you convince 2.3 million people to leave? He speaks of a plan—but there is no plan.”
A Resumption of Conflict: Warnings and Speculations
Despite the ceasefire, analysts suggest that a resumption of hostilities could be imminent. Noam Ostfeld, principal analyst at geopolitical risk consultancy Sibylline, told The i Paper that the U.S. may be trying to extract American and civilian hostages before fighting resumes. “In the coming weeks, we are likely to see a resumption of war,” Ostfeld warned.
He pointed to the re-arming of Israel by the U.S. as a key indicator, noting that the U.S. State Department approved the potential sale of nearly $3 billion worth of bombs, demolition kits, and other weaponry to Israel, as stated by the Pentagon on February 28.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s government, supported by far-right coalition partners, has threatened to collapse if Netanyahu proceeds with phase two of the ceasefire agreement. Ostfeld cautioned, “If Hamas loses the hostages, it loses its last bargaining chip—then what?” He noted that Israeli hardliners, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who oppose phase two, “have been notably silent”— fueling speculation that an “under-the-table” agreement exists between the U.S. administration and the Israeli far-right.
Mekelberg emphasized that the far-right does not seek an end to the conflict: “They want to continue fighting and are already discussing new settlements in Gaza. Hamas knows its only leverage is the hostages.” He added, “Militarily, Hamas is weaker after October 7, and that attack hasn’t served Palestinian interests or the people of Gaza. If Hamas loses the hostages, it loses its last bargaining chip—then what?”
A Ticking Clock: The Humanitarian Crisis
Aid groups are warning that the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is worsening by the day. On Sunday, Israel cut off humanitarian aid, seeking to pressure Hamas into a hostage release without an Israeli troop withdrawal. Britain, Germany, and France have cautioned that Israel may be violating international law by blocking aid, as Gaza faces a catastrophic humanitarian situation.
Despite these challenges, Ostfeld noted some positive outcomes: “Prisoners were released, military operations paused in some areas, and civilians were allowed to return to northern Gaza.” However, he warned of an elevated risk for civilians if the ceasefire collapses.
As tensions rise, 59 hostages remain in Gaza, while the number of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, detention centers, and military camps has exceeded 9,500. Despite the ceasefire, shootings remain an almost daily occurrence in both Gaza and the West Bank.
Odeh summarized the stakes involved: “From the perspective of Trump and his administration, the Palestinians are a ‘problem’ that needs to be fixed. Their solution is to remove them, rehouse them elsewhere, and reshape the map. They are re-engineering the West Bank, tearing down refugee camps, and changing geography. It’s all interconnected with Gaza. With Trump in power, the Israeli government sees this as a small window of opportunity to ‘finish the job.’”
She concluded, “It is mind-blowing. Trump is taking the world to a place where none of the rules or logic of the past 80 years apply.”
