Unleashing the Giants: Analyzing the Title Chances of All Four No. 1 Seeds in Men’s March Madness Final Four

Final Four Preview: The Clash of Titans

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, providing an in-depth look at the lead-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and predictions throughout the tournaments.

This year’s NCAA Tournament has unfolded in a remarkably predictable manner, culminating in a historic event: all four No. 1 seeds are set to compete in the Final Four for the first time since 2008. That memorable tournament delivered an iconic championship clash, highlighted by Mario Chalmers’ breathtaking shot that sent the title game into overtime, culminating in Kansas’ victory over Memphis. Just like this year’s Final Four, that tournament also concluded in San Antonio.

The pressing question this year is whether the presence of these elite teams will lead to thrilling matchups reminiscent of that unforgettable championship. Notably, only one of the Elite Eight games showcased significant drama in the closing moments. Duke’s imposing dominance over its opponents raises the possibility of a repeat performance, potentially mirroring UConn’s recent path to victory.

However, Duke’s upcoming opponent, Houston, is no pushover. The Cougars have demonstrated remarkable resilience this season, never losing by more than five points, with three of their four defeats occurring in overtime. Additionally, Houston is motivated to avenge last year’s Sweet 16 loss to Duke, where they fell short after Jamal Shead suffered an ankle injury. Meanwhile, Auburn also seeks retribution, having previously lost to both Florida and Duke this season.

Below are our final power rankings of the four remaining teams, along with a highlight for each powerhouse as they prepare to descend upon San Antonio.

Power Rankings of the Final Four Teams

• Duke Blue Devils
  Last Rank: 1

  Duke’s defense was impenetrable as they faced Alabama, successfully stifling the Crimson Tide’s high-octane offense to just 0.89 points per possession, marking Alabama’s second-worst performance of the season. The Blue Devils dominated the boards with a 41-30 advantage, thanks to impressive performances from Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach, who each secured nine rebounds. Jon Scheyer’s squad is formidable on both ends of the court, but they will face a stern challenge from Houston, a team they narrowly defeated in last year’s Sweet 16.

  
  Reasons for Optimism: Duke boasts a generational talent and stands as the best team in the tournament. Their efficiency margin ranks as the second-highest in KenPom’s history, a testament to their ability to overwhelm opponents with elite play on both offense and defense.
  Seed: 1
  Record: 35-3
  Games:

  • No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s 93-49
  • No. 9 Baylor 89-66
  • No. 4 Arizona 100-93
  • No. 2 Alabama 85-65
• Florida Gators
  Last Rank: 2

  In a dramatic showdown against Texas Tech, the Gators showcased their tenacity as Thomas Haugh and Walter Clayton Jr. propelled Florida to victory, each hitting crucial three-pointers in the final minutes to overcome a nine-point deficit. Clayton’s 30-point performance was instrumental, while the team’s outstanding free throw shooting (25 of 27) contrasted sharply with Texas Tech’s struggles from the line. Florida now faces Auburn, a team they previously overwhelmed in early February.

  Reasons for Optimism: The Gators possess depth and immense talent, with Clayton emerging as one of the best closers in college basketball. They have displayed resilience throughout the tournament, overcoming challenging situations and demonstrating that they fear no opponent in San Antonio.
  Seed: 1
  Record: 34-4
  Games:

  • No. 16 Norfolk State 95-69
  • No. 8 UConn 77-75
  • No. 4 Maryland 87-71
  • No. 3 Texas Tech 84-79
• Houston Cougars
  Last Rank: 3

  Under Kelvin Sampson’s leadership, the Cougars have established themselves as a defensive powerhouse. They demonstrated their prowess by limiting Tennessee to a record-low 15 points in the first half of the Elite Eight matchup, maintaining a double-digit lead throughout the second half. With Emanuel Sharp and LJ Cryer contributing crucial points, Houston is poised for redemption against Duke, a team that narrowly edged them out last March.

  
  Reasons for Optimism: Houston features the nation’s top defense, bolstered by a long and athletic frontcourt. Additionally, their backcourt is equipped with sharpshooters, and point guard Milos Uzan’s rise has provided the Cougars with another significant offensive weapon.
  Seed: 1
  Record: 34-4
  Games:

  • No. 16 SIUE 78-40
  • No. 8 Gonzaga 81-76
  • No. 4 Purdue 62-60
  • No. 2 Tennessee 79-60
• Auburn Tigers
  Last Rank: 4

  The Tigers secured their spot in the Final Four by leading for most of their game against Michigan State, marking Bruce Pearl’s second appearance in the Final Four with Auburn. Johni Broome’s remarkable performance, featuring 25 points and 14 rebounds, was critical, though his health remains a concern following a tough fall during the game. Auburn’s defense has been their strength, but they will need a fully fit Broome to contend with Florida, who previously handed them a significant defeat.

  Reasons for Optimism: For substantial stretches against top teams, Auburn has showcased the form that saw them start the season with an impressive 27-2 record, including a 15-1 conference performance. That version of Auburn was a dominant force, characterized by versatile scoring options and defensive capabilities.
  Seed: 1
  Record: 32-5
  Games:

  • No. 16 Alabama State 83-63
  • No. 9 Creighton 82-70
  • No. 5 Michigan 78-65
  • No. 2 Michigan State 70-64

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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Jared C. Tilton, James Gilbert / Getty Images)