UK Voters Divided on Military Involvement in Ukraine
Recent polling data reveals a growing uncertainty among UK voters regarding the use of British troops as peacekeepers in the event of a resolution to the ongoing Ukraine war. This exclusive survey conducted for The i Paper indicates a notable decline in unconditional support for the conflict.
The comprehensive survey highlights a division in public opinion concerning various aspects of the UK’s involvement in the war and its military spending. A significant portion of the electorate remains unconvinced about the necessity for increased defense expenditure. According to BMG polling, 36 percent of respondents believe that Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer should prioritize funding for public services, such as welfare and education, over boosting military budgets.
This week, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled plans to elevate defense spending to 2.5 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027, with an aspiration to reach 3 percent by 2034. He articulated that a “generational challenge requires a generational response,” particularly in light of former President Donald Trump’s push for peace in Ukraine and indications of a potential US military withdrawal from Europe.
However, the BMG poll, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday—the same days as Sunak’s announcement—found that only 21 percent of voters felt the government should prioritize military spending. In contrast, a larger segment of the population (36 percent) indicated that funding should be directed towards welfare and education instead. Interestingly, 28 percent of respondents believe the current defense budget is adequate, which means a total of 49 percent are either satisfied with or advocating for increased military spending.
Political affiliations appear to influence these perspectives, as Conservative (40 percent) and Reform (37 percent) party supporters are more inclined to favor heightened military budgets, while Labour and Liberal Democrat voters exhibit a preference for prioritizing social services. It remains uncertain whether Sunak’s announcement, along with his assertion that the UK must “fight for peace in Europe,” will sway public opinion in favor of increased military funding.
Amidst this backdrop, skepticism regarding ongoing support for Ukraine is on the rise. Over a third of voters (35 percent) now assert that the UK should cease its support for Kyiv if it negatively affects the British economy, a notable increase from 27 percent two years ago. In contrast, 36 percent maintain that Starmer should continue backing President Volodymyr Zelensky’s efforts against the Russian invasion regardless of the economic repercussions.
Currently, 44 percent of respondents believe that the amount of support the UK is providing to Ukraine is appropriate, while just under a fifth (18 percent) think it is insufficient. Conversely, 25 percent feel that the UK is overcommitting its resources. Notably, Reform voters are particularly inclined to prioritize the UK economy (51 percent) over supporting Ukraine (35 percent).
As for Starmer’s proposal to deploy British peacekeeping forces to Ukraine to ensure compliance with any ceasefire agreement, voter opinions are split: 39 percent support the idea, while 30 percent oppose it. Furthermore, a majority of voters (50 percent) view President Trump’s approach to the Ukraine conflict—including his communications with Vladimir Putin and criticisms of Zelensky—as inadequate, with only 25 percent believing he is effectively working towards peace.
More voters oppose the ongoing US-Russia negotiations (37 percent) than support them (26 percent), amidst concerns surrounding the exclusion of Zelensky and European allies from these discussions. A significant 42 percent of voters advocate for the UK to adopt a more critical stance towards the US negotiations, while only 17 percent believe the UK should align more closely with the US position.
Jack Curry, a pollster at BMG, remarked, “Public support for the UK’s assistance to Ukraine has waned considerably, with more than a third now opposing continued support if it adversely impacts the UK economy. Sentiment regarding the deployment of troops to support a peace agreement is also divided, although it garners more support than opposition. Starmer’s announcement of increased defense spending may have generated favorable headlines, but the government will need to convincingly demonstrate the necessity for such funding to the public.”
He further noted, “Despite the shifting geopolitical landscape, British voters generally prefer prioritizing spending in areas like education over military expenditures. Trump’s handling of the Ukraine crisis is perceived negatively by a majority of the UK population, especially in comparison to his predecessor Joe Biden and other European leaders such as Emmanuel Macron. Nearly half of respondents believe the UK should adopt a more critical approach towards the US initiatives and show greater opposition to the negotiations between the US and Russia.”
As the situation evolves, it is clear that Keir Starmer faces the challenge of navigating a complex political landscape with diverse voter opinions.
