Former President Donald Trump’s unconventional approach to diplomacy is beginning to show results, yet there are increasing concerns about the possible long-term consequences of hastily made decisions on intricate issues. Recently, the U.S. administration urged Ukraine to consider a potential ceasefire agreement that would pause hostilities in the ongoing conflict for 30 days. Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State who spearheaded the negotiations, stated, “The ball is now in Russia’s court.” As Trump, Kyiv, and European leaders await Moscow’s reaction, there is a possibility that President Vladimir Putin’s forthcoming decision might come as a surprise.
“He has to make a choice fairly quickly regarding how to navigate this situation. The most apparent strategy for him would be to buy some time,” remarked John Lough, an associate fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House in London and a former NATO ambassador to Moscow. “He is likely to impose certain conditions on this ceasefire proposal from the Americans and the Ukrainians, potentially linking it to upcoming elections,” he added.
Broadening Russian Influence
As part of the ongoing negotiations, it is conceivable that Russia and President Putin may seek to engage in a broader dialogue with the U.S. regarding its role in Europe and the management of European security. Lough noted, “It depends on how much he feels the need to continue using military force or hybrid tactics against neighboring countries to solidify Russian influence in the region. If he can secure Russian influence with U.S. consent, then he may not need to resort to conflict.”
“The situation is quite complex. The threat of a wider war in Europe undeniably persists. However, there is also a chance that tensions could ease for a time in Ukraine,” he continued. Among the Kremlin’s longstanding objectives are the replacement of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with a more Russia-friendly candidate, achieving total control over four eastern Ukrainian regions, and maintaining the annexation of Crimea, which took place in 2014. “Elections in Ukraine present significant opportunities for Russia to fulfill some of its war goals that cannot be achieved merely through continued fighting,” Lough explained.
Trump has indicated that territorial concessions from both parties may be necessary to facilitate a deal, even though current battlefield conditions indicate Russia holds nearly one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory. Simultaneously, Ukraine’s advances in Russia’s Kursk region have diminished, attributed to the suspension of U.S. aid and intelligence sharing.
However, involving European allies in the broader peace negotiations is viewed as a constructive move for Ukraine, as European leaders are anticipated to advocate strongly for Ukraine’s interests, which are closely intertwined with regional security.
Playing ‘A Longer Game’
Before committing to the Trump-mediated agreement, Ukrainian officials consistently emphasized that without strong security guarantees and support from the U.S., Russia would likely exploit a ceasefire to regroup its forces and potentially prepare for another invasion—either of Ukraine or another European nation. Nevertheless, Lough suggested that a cessation of hostilities and a phase of relative calm could ultimately benefit both sides. Ukraine may find the opportunity to rebuild and fortify its military, positioning itself to reclaim territories it might need to concede during negotiations.
“Both sides could be strategizing for a longer-term outcome,” said Lough.
‘It’s About Something Much Bigger’
Moreover, the Kremlin’s ambitions may be more intricate than they appear. “This matter transcends Ukraine. It encompasses something much more significant,” Lough stated. The Russians “currently have a unique opportunity, while Trump is in office, to substantially enhance their influence in Europe. This development inevitably has far-reaching implications for their global standing.”
As negotiations unfold, complexities may increase if Putin articulates demands that are challenging to accept. Additionally, there are “hundreds of thousands of Russians engaged in combat in Ukraine for substantial financial rewards, who likely do not wish for the fighting to cease, as their families are significantly benefiting,” Lough pointed out. Putin also must satisfy domestic expectations that Russia is meeting its strategic objectives.
The Trump administration’s focus on domestic priorities, a penchant for rapid outcomes at almost any cost, and its hesitance to engage with international organizations and alliances may simplify Putin’s calculations. “With Trump, we are witnessing a form of diplomacy that is exceedingly unorthodox,” Lough remarked. “Thus, in the coming days, we will learn much more about the potential longevity of this situation.”
