Trump’s Military Aid Freeze: A Threat to Ukraine and a Boon for Putin
Experts are sounding the alarm over Donald Trump’s recent decision to cut military aid to Ukraine, suggesting that this move could enable Vladimir Putin to secure victory and potentially expand his influence across Europe. The abrupt announcement of a freeze on military spending came after a contentious meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office last week.
According to the Pentagon, approximately $3.85 billion (£3 billion) remains from the funding authorized by the US Congress for Ukraine. Zelensky has thus far refused to issue an apology to Trump, who has previously labeled him a “dictator” and a “salesman,” accusing Zelensky of failing to express adequate gratitude for US support, despite the Ukrainian leader’s multiple acknowledgments of American assistance.
Trump and high-ranking Republican officials have hinted that they expect some form of public apology from Zelensky before they will engage further regarding a US-Ukraine mineral deal, which they believe is a prerequisite for any peace agreement. Trump stated that the minerals deal was not off the table but insisted that Zelensky needed to show more appreciation.
In response, Zelensky tweeted that the White House meeting “did not go as planned” and expressed regret over the circumstances, adding that it was time to rectify the situation. He emphasized the desire for future cooperation and constructive communication, although he stopped short of issuing an apology.
Military Vulnerability and the Threat of Russian Aggression
Dr. Marina Miron from the War Studies Department at King’s College London expressed concern that Zelensky may only apologize if compelled to do so by his allies. “Zelensky represented a policy that was not entirely his own but rather that of the UK and France,” she noted. “Trump has left a back door open for Zelensky, suggesting he could return, but his recent public statements in the UK indicate he is unlikely to apologize. Without pressure from Britain and France, I doubt he will, and it seems the Trump administration is uninterested in dialogue with him at this time.”
Until an apology is forthcoming, Ukraine’s military aid hangs in the balance, putting Ukrainian lives and military momentum at risk, experts warn, while leaving a gap that European nations may struggle to fill.
US Aid Cut: A Potential Catalyst for Putin’s Expansion
Dr. Miron described the current situation as “really, really bad,” fearing that without the restoration of US military aid, Ukraine is likely to face severe setbacks on the battlefield. She cautioned that the lack of support could damage morale among Ukrainian troops, potentially leading to dissatisfaction with Zelensky’s leadership and even prompting a military coup.
Defense insiders have long feared that even a partial victory for Russia in Ukraine could embolden Putin to make further territorial demands. Dr. Miron warned that the aid freeze could “embolden Putin, perhaps encouraging him to attempt to seize the entirety of Ukraine,” although she acknowledged that such an endeavor would be “difficult” and costly. She speculated that Russia might instead focus on Armenia and Azerbaijan, nations that are currently experiencing instability near Russia’s borders.
Implications for Negotiations and Ukrainian Defense
Malcolm Chalmers, Deputy Director-General of the defense think tank Rusi, added that the aid freeze could also strengthen Putin’s position at the negotiating table. “This military aid freeze is fundamentally driven by Trump’s belief that Russia is open to a peace deal, viewing Ukraine as the primary obstacle,” he explained. “However, there is no evidence that Russia is willing to negotiate, and the freeze may encourage Putin to demand more, including Ukraine’s demilitarization and neutrality.”
One defense insider remarked, “An American military aid freeze hands Putin all the cards. He can wait for Ukrainian stockpiles to diminish, gain further advantages on the battlefield, and leverage this new pressure in negotiations.”
Increased Vulnerability for Ukrainian Forces
Tom Barton of the open-source intelligence company Janes noted that the immediate effects of the aid freeze might not be apparent, as Ukraine has built up its reserves over time. However, he cautioned that a reduction in ammunition supplies from the US could create a “choke point.” “Ukraine utilizes hundreds of thousands of shells each month,” he explained. “The US had supplied three million 155 mm rounds since the start of the war until January 20. That flow has now come to a halt.”
Barton acknowledged that while European support would persist, it would likely diminish significantly, going from a “river to a stream,” potentially leaving Ukrainian forces without adequate artillery cover and exposing them to increased Russian attacks.
Challenges in European Support and Production
Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences at Rusi, stated that Europe would need to double its annual artillery shell production to mitigate the losses from the US withdrawal. “While Europe has donated substantial amounts in value, the diversity of weapon systems complicates training for Ukrainian forces,” he noted.
Additionally, there are concerns that the US could halt its critical intelligence-sharing operations with Ukraine. Although Trump’s recent actions have not yet included intelligence cuts, the deteriorating relations between Kyiv and Washington could jeopardize this vital lifeline. Dr. Miron emphasized, “The US has a monopoly on vital intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, which is crucial for conducting military operations. If Ukraine loses access to this information, particularly for targeting, it could severely undermine their military capabilities.”
As the situation evolves, experts agree that the implications of the US aid freeze could ultimately reshape the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine and beyond, affecting not just Ukrainian forces but also European security as a whole.
Future of US-UK Relations
Dr. Miron highlighted that the US-UK relationship is already “fractured,” and the aid freeze may exacerbate existing tensions. She expressed concern that Europe has been slow to recognize that Ukraine is not a priority for Trump, warning that the US might abandon its allies if faced with a direct Russian attack. “It’s critical for NATO members, including the UK, to understand the potential implications of this situation,” she stated.
As Europe grapples with its defense challenges, the prospect of future cooperation with the US could hinge on transactional rather than value-based partnerships, raising questions about the continent’s long-term security strategy.
