Trump’s Influence on Ukraine’s Struggle Against Russia
Donald Trump’s recent capitulation to Russian demands has seemingly emboldened Vladimir Putin, whose ongoing air assaults on Ukraine are designed to strengthen Moscow’s position ahead of potential peace negotiations, according to various experts. As European leaders convened over the weekend to develop a peace strategy for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, Russian drones continued their relentless campaign of destruction, targeting civilian infrastructure and claiming more lives.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on Monday that “more than 1,050 attack drones, nearly 1,300 aerial bombs, and over 20 missiles” had been launched against Ukraine in the previous week, with the intent to annihilate cities and cause civilian casualties. The relentless strikes coincided with an extraordinary confrontation in Washington on Friday, during which Trump criticized Zelensky for allegedly not expressing enough gratitude to the United States.
This tense exchange in the Oval Office led Trump to suspend all U.S. military aid to Ukraine until he believes Zelensky has made a genuine commitment to peace talks, as indicated by officials. By halting critical U.S. assistance, Trump is effectively coercing Ukraine into negotiations, implying that further setbacks on the battlefield could follow.
Firefighters work diligently at the site of a Russian drone attack on an apartment building in Kharkiv, highlighting the ongoing plight of civilians amid the conflict. The spectacle of a U.S. leader chastising the president of an allied nation fighting for its very existence came shortly after a series of perplexing events where Trump aligned U.S. policies more closely with Russia, including organizing talks aimed at ending the war and refraining from condemning Russia’s actions at the United Nations.
The Kremlin has swiftly responded to these developments, expressing satisfaction with the apparent alignment of U.S. foreign policy with Russian interests. Timothy Ash, an Associate Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, stated, “Trump has emboldened Putin.” He added, “I think Trump has given Putin everything he wants, more or less, in terms of he’s given away all his negotiating points and all his leverage. No NATO, no security guarantees.” This alignment with Kremlin demands could encourage Russia to revert to its maximalist objectives, which include the removal of Zelensky from power and the demilitarization of Ukraine, rendering it vulnerable to future attacks.
Experts caution that the potential initiation of peace talks could prompt Russia to escalate its aggression in the coming weeks, as Putin aims to maintain the upper hand. “Putin has a history of escalating tensions before negotiations,” Ash noted. “This pattern has been evident over the past decade, and we should anticipate similar behavior now.”
Since Trump’s phone call with Putin, which he described as “highly productive,” the situation has intensified, with dozens of civilians falling victim to attacks. On Monday, the Ukrainian military reported that it shot down 46 out of 83 drones launched by Russia overnight. Another 31 drones were deemed “lost,” likely due to electronic warfare countermeasures deployed by Ukraine’s forces.
In a tragic incident on Saturday, more than 30 servicemen lost their lives when a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile equipped with cluster munitions struck a training ground in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region. Just days earlier, as Ukraine prepared to commemorate the third anniversary of the war on February 24, Russia unleashed over 200 drones in an overnight offensive, marking the most significant aerial assault of the conflict thus far. According to Ukraine’s air force, 138 drones were intercepted, while an additional 119 disappeared from radar after being disrupted by electronic warfare.
A farewell ceremony took place in Kyiv on Monday for Ukrainian journalist Tetiana Kulyk and her husband, oncologist-surgeon Pavlo Ivanchov, who tragically lost their lives in a Russian drone strike on February 26. Serhii Cherevatyi, director of the Ukrainian state news agency Ukrinform, expressed deep sorrow, stating, “It is incredibly painful, and I express the grief of our entire team at losing such bright and remarkable individuals.”
Zelensky emphasized the need for international solidarity, asserting, “Those who seek negotiations do not deliberately strike civilians with ballistic missiles. To compel Russia to cease its attacks, we require greater collective strength from the world.” The funeral for Kulyk, 42, and Ivanchov, 52, drew attention to the human cost of the ongoing conflict.
Trump’s alignment with Kremlin narratives and his concessions prior to negotiations have led to speculation that Putin now perceives himself in a stronger position than he did before the new U.S. administration took office. Ash pointed out that Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO, regardless of its feasibility, could have provided both Trump and Kyiv with leverage to secure concessions from Moscow in other areas, such as territorial disputes or Ukraine’s military capabilities in any post-conflict scenario.
“I believe Putin was in a weak position going into negotiations, and now [Trump] has made Russia think it can adopt a much tougher stance and act more aggressively towards Ukraine,” Ash remarked. “Trump had a very advantageous negotiating position, and he has squandered it.” However, a reduction in U.S. military and financial support for Ukraine would simultaneously diminish its ability to influence decisions, which could be detrimental.
In response to Moscow’s sustained aggression, Kyiv may feel compelled to ramp up its own operations against Russian territory to disrupt Moscow’s military logistics and operations. Targeting Russian oil refineries could lead to increased oil prices, which is something Trump is likely eager to avoid. Ash noted, “It could lead to escalation from both sides. Ukraine possesses long-range capabilities and has been exercising restraint in its attacks on Russian territory due to American requests. If the U.S. ceases to provide arms, Ukraine may no longer feel constrained.”
Interestingly, the perceived unreliability of the U.S. could, paradoxically, benefit Ukraine in another way. Ash pointed to the proactive measures taken by European allies to bolster their defense capabilities and support for Ukraine. “It’s clear that the U.S. is not a neutral arbiter in peace talks,” he observed, “but that could ultimately work to Ukraine’s advantage.” A framework developed by European partners is likely to offer more favorable terms for Ukraine than a hastily arranged “deal” imposed by Trump, which might favor Moscow.
Acknowledging the shifting dynamics, Ash concluded, “In a way, it’s created momentum for Europe to take the lead in peace negotiations. Now it’s back to Europe and Ukraine, allowing both to play a significant role in the peace process.” A deal formulated by Ukraine and European nations could lead to a more stable and enduring peace. “An imposed ceasefire by Russia and the U.S. would likely not have been sustainable. Thus, there are some silver linings emerging from this situation,” Ash stated.
