The Putin-Trump Dynamic: A Double-Edged Sword for Russia
In Moscow, there is a palpable sense that the international landscape is shifting in Russia’s favor, perhaps even too favorably. The Kremlin welcomed Donald Trump’s overtures to reopen dialogue with Russia, hoping for peace negotiations. The recent encounter between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump in the Oval Office, where Zelensky appeared visibly frustrated, sparked a wave of schadenfreude in Russian media.
A popular Russian tabloid remarked, “Russia cannot conceal its malicious pleasure,” while presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expressed contentment at the apparent alignment of visions between the new U.S. administration and Russia. He noted that while significant damage has been inflicted on bilateral relations, if both Trump and Vladimir Putin maintain political will, a swift and successful path to improved relations could be possible.
The notion of a potential peace agreement—and the limited sanctions relief that might accompany it—has led many Russians to speculate whether international brands that exited the market at the onset of the conflict might consider returning. This has ignited a behind-the-scenes debate among the elite on how best to respond. On one side, the technocrats, weary of ongoing warfare and aware of the profound economic, political, and demographic scars it has inflicted, argue for seizing the opportunity to negotiate a resolution. Conversely, the nationalist voices, such as those on Tsargrad TV, contend that any peace agreement now would signify defeat. They warn that halting operations without achieving set objectives would merely postpone the conflict, passing its burden to future generations.
The infamous meeting last Friday between Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance has become a focal point for these discussions. The Kremlin, however, finds itself navigating a complex landscape, realizing that it, too, is now a player in what some might call “Trumpworld.” Putin is increasingly forced into a reactive position due to Trump’s unpredictable and often abrasive style. The Russian leader seeks to influence Trump through various means, including flattery and presenting opportunities for U.S. investment in Russia’s rare earth metals sector, where Russia is a global leader in reserves.
Yet, as one seasoned Russian analyst put it, “You can attempt to steer Trump in your desired direction, but ultimately, it’s a gamble.” In essence, when a situation seems to be increasingly favorable, the risk of mishandling it also rises. This has led to a cautious approach from Moscow. Despite some Russian commentators excitedly envisioning a complete lifting of sanctions and a burgeoning U.S.-Russian alliance against Europe, the Kremlin is keen to temper such expectations. They are mindful of avoiding the impression that they take Trump’s position for granted, particularly given the unpredictable nature of his presidency.
Since his initial term began, Trump has surprised Russia before, notably with the 2017 missile strike on Syria following a chemical attack on civilians, which left the Kremlin wary of his unpredictability. They are acutely aware of his vanity and his transactional worldview, as well as his personal animosity towards Zelensky.
Riding the Tiger: A Complex Balancing Act
Despite the apparent advantages in their current position, there remains an undercurrent of anxiety in Moscow, as many feel that Putin is “riding a tiger” from which he cannot safely dismount. The hope is that Trump might pressure Zelensky into resignation, paving the way for a ceasefire or a peace deal favorable to Russia. However, the Kremlin is not counting on this outcome just yet. Instead, they are relishing two immediate gains that have already materialized.
- The diplomatic isolation that the West attempted to impose on Russia appears to be waning, especially with reports of an impending Trump-Putin summit gaining momentum.
- There is a growing sentiment that Russia is “back” on the world stage, with a foreign ministry official noting that “some countries that had been indecisive are now eager to engage with us again,” which includes several European nations.
Additionally, the Kremlin is finding satisfaction in the discomfort of Western nations. Europe is grappling with internal divisions and the looming threat of a trade war with the U.S. The anticipated increases in defense spending will not materialize overnight, causing political turmoil as funds are redirected from other essential services. The resignation of Anneliese Dodds, the UK development minister, in protest against this redirection received significant coverage in Russian media.
While it is true that the Russians remain susceptible to the whims of an erratic U.S. President, for the moment, they are enjoying their time in the unpredictable realm of Trumpworld.
Professor Mark Galeotti is the author of Putin’s Wars: from Chechnya to Ukraine, published by Osprey.
