The Concerns of a Pro-Natalist Advocate: A Vision for the Future
In the year 2045, the world finds itself grappling with a severe inflation crisis. China, once hailed as the global manufacturing hub, has lost its edge due to an aging population, leading to skyrocketing prices for household goods. Many individuals across the globe are now dedicating their resources primarily to caring for the elderly. Meanwhile, countries with larger, younger demographics are mobilizing their military forces. This unsettling future is what Tom Davenport fears the most.
Davenport, a 38-year-old from Wiltshire, is a pro-natalist, someone who advocates for increased birth rates as a solution to the impending crisis. He expresses his deep concerns: “What will happen when South Korea’s population dwindles to less than a third of its current size, and North Korea takes advantage? Or consider Germany, which may see its industry crumble due to a lack of skilled workers. In just two decades, I fear there might not even be a Germany left, and a power vacuum in central Europe could lead to dire consequences.”
While South Korea’s birth rate continues to decline, North Korea’s is experiencing a similar trend. Davenport emphasizes the potential chaos that could ensue in the face of demographic shifts: “Without a stable population, the geopolitical landscape could become incredibly volatile.”
As a pro-natalist, Davenport subscribes to the belief that women must bear more children to ensure the future of humanity. This controversial ideology is gaining traction as an increasing number of nations grapple with low birth rates. In particular, the movement has garnered support among the so-called “tech bros” in Silicon Valley, with billionaire and government adviser Elon Musk being its most prominent advocate. Musk, who has fathered 12 children with four different women, has recently made headlines for welcoming a 13th child with a 26-year-old influencer. He has labeled population collapse as “the biggest danger” facing humanity, even surpassing the threats posed by climate change. He has also warned that Japan, with one of the lowest birth rates globally, “will eventually cease to exist.”
US Vice President JD Vance has gone so far as to argue that parents should have more voting power than those without children, rallying against what he terms the Democrats’ “childless cat women” during the 2024 election campaign.
Davenport is supportive of Musk’s stance: “Anyone raising awareness about this issue is doing important work. We need genuine innovation, and Musk has demonstrated his ability to achieve that across multiple fields.”
As a father of three, Davenport’s own experiences fuel his passion. He welcomed his first child at 22, long before he discovered his pro-natalist beliefs. His interest in declining birth rates was sparked in 2011 when he began researching Japan and South Korea. “I realized that some significant challenges are on the horizon,” he reflects. “I worry that the next generation may not enjoy the same economic and geopolitical stability that we have taken for granted.”
While pro-natalism has often been associated with authoritarian and anti-women policies, Davenport points out that, on average, UK women desire 2.35 children but are currently having only 1.44. “It’s not that they don’t want children,” he explains, “but rather that there are numerous obstacles in their way.”
Among these obstacles, he identifies economic challenges as the primary concern. Despite his commitment to pro-natalism, Davenport and his partner have no plans to expand their family beyond their current three children—ages 16, 11, and 9. “We simply can’t afford a bigger house,” he admits.
Interestingly, Davenport’s wife does not share his strong pro-natalist views. “She is incredibly supportive and a great listener,” he notes. “She adores children and works full-time in education. While our interests differ, she understands the problem through my lens.”
The global population isn’t in decline; rather, growth is slowing. In the 1960s, the growth rate was approximately 2.1 percent per year, while today it hovers around 1.1 percent. Countries like Japan, Italy, and Germany are experiencing shrinking populations due to low fertility rates and aging demographics. In contrast, nations such as Nigeria, India, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are witnessing rapid population growth.
According to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024, which provides projections for the year 2100, women today give birth to an average of one child fewer than they did in 1990. The report anticipates that the world population will peak at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before beginning to plateau and eventually decline as older generations pass away.
The UN aims to facilitate a shift towards smaller families in rapidly growing populations while enabling larger families in declining populations where many fail to achieve their desired family size. Davenport believes we are on the brink of an economic crisis due to declining birth rates. “My greatest worry is that most people fail to recognize this issue or mistakenly believe we must choose between fertility and environmental sustainability. In reality, we can achieve both,” he argues. “If we don’t have a significant number of intelligent individuals being born, how will we address the world’s challenges in the coming decades? Just imagine if Japan ends up with three adults caring for each pensioner. Who will take care of all these elderly individuals?”
Davenport, who founded an AI digital marketing agency, also attributes part of the blame to men. “Many men are overwhelmed by the idea of having children. I was young and terrified myself. I thought, ‘This is far too soon.’ I was focused on my career and personal achievements. I had to sacrifice some of that to prioritize my family, which was a challenging moment but ultimately worthwhile for the sake of my children,” he shares. “Unexpectedly, it turned out to be the catalyst that pushed me to perform at a level I never thought possible.”
He believes that until individuals have children, they often fail to grasp how motivating parenthood can be. “I know guys who waste 90 hours playing video games. It’s tragic. They could be channeling that energy into the world. Many need to awaken to their responsibilities.”
Phoebe Arslanagić-Little, a 28-year-old co-director of Boom—a campaign aimed at making family-building in the UK more accessible—echoes similar sentiments. As she cradles her seven-week-old daughter during our phone conversation, she reflects, “I’ve always known I wanted children. I would find it heartbreaking if that desire were to remain unfulfilled.” However, it wasn’t until 2022 that she began to truly consider the implications of declining birth rates. “I had heard discussions about it, but then I encountered compelling evidence indicating that individuals in the UK are having fewer children than they truly desire,” she recalls. This realization motivated her to embark on her own research journey.
Yet, some campaigners express deep concerns about the pro-natalist push. “The harmful myths propagated by the pro-natalist movement wage a war on women’s autonomy and choices,” asserts Amy Jankiewicz, CEO of Population Matters. “This movement seeks to curtail individuals’ reproductive rights, advocating for restrictive policies on family planning services, including safe abortion, as seen in countries like the US, Hungary, and China.”
Jankiewicz argues that this approach undermines women’s choices. “When women and girls gain access to education, sexual and reproductive health services, and information, research shows they often opt for smaller families,” she explains. “What we truly need is transformative, human rights-centered leadership for the betterment of both people and the planet.”
Arslanagić-Little acknowledges the complexity of this issue. “When discussions arise, they often occur within the context of cultural wars, particularly in the US, which doesn’t effectively support individuals seeking to expand their families,” she observes. “Arguments frequently stem from values-based perspectives, often influenced by faith or political affiliations.”
Residing in London, Arslanagić-Little believes she has been fortunate to start her family at 28—four years younger than the national average—thanks to the support of her parents and in-laws. “If it weren’t for that network, I think I would have delayed starting a family,” she admits.
“I have friends who consciously choose not to have children, but that doesn’t trouble me,” she asserts. “What genuinely worries me is the large number of individuals who desperately want to become parents but face insurmountable obstacles.”
With her supportive network, Arslanagić-Little hopes to expand her family to two or three children. “It’s not an ideological drive for me; rather, I genuinely enjoy being a parent,” she explains. “We struggle to have meaningful conversations about this issue in the UK. Despite strong evidence that people are having fewer children than they desire, and the long-standing decline in fertility rates, it remains absent from mainstream political discourse.”
She recalls the Gordon Brown baby boom of the early 2000s. “When he was chancellor, he implemented reforms, including the working families tax credit, which contributed to an additional 45,000 births between 1999 and 2003,” she shares.
Arslanagić-Little believes that while there may not be a one-size-fits-all solution, it is a misconception to assume that no solutions exist. “Addressing this issue could significantly impact many lives and our future as a nation,” she states. Policy solutions appear straightforward: “It revolves around making parenthood more manageable. The barriers many face include an inability to move into larger homes and insufficient maternity and paternity leave.”
However, the more intricate challenges arise during the pre-parenthood years. “This encompasses the type of careers people cultivate in their twenties and their ability to establish themselves professionally, as well as the ease of finding a compatible partner,” she explains. “All of these factors are far more complex to navigate.”
