The Phantom Armies of Politics: Labour MPs in Rebellion
During the Second World War, the Allies in Libya employed innovative tactics to disguise their limited resources, creating phantom armies composed of dummy tanks, artillery, and even soldiers in the vast desert. Their aim was to project an image of strength and intimidate the enemy into submission. A similar strategy appears to be unfolding within the Labour Party, where MPs are claiming to have a coalition of 80 supporters willing to challenge the Government’s proposed welfare cuts. They plan to voice their discontent through a letter directed to the Treasury and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer ahead of the crucial spring budget statement at the end of March.
While it is evident that there is increasing unrest among Labour backbenchers, the assertion of 80 dissenting voices seems more fanciful than factual. The Socialist Campaign Group, which is championing this nascent insurrection, currently identifies around 25 Labour MPs as members. However, it is worth noting that three of these MPs are sitting as independents due to having the whip suspended. A government source commented, “I suppose you could put most of what’s left of the campaign group together with some of the newer members and maybe reach 30, but I seriously doubt how you can claim 80.”
The practicality of a rebellion also raises questions, as the proposed welfare cuts do not necessitate a parliamentary vote, given they do not involve new legislation. Instead, Starmer is likely to encounter a barrage of inquiries and grievances when he addresses a closed-door meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) in Westminster on Monday evening.
Backbench concerns are being orchestrated by Debbie Abrahams, the MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth, who spent the weekend reaching out to her colleagues to assess their support. Conversely, a counter-effort is underway with the formation of the “Get Britain Working Group,” led by Hendon MP David Pinto-Duschinsky, which aims to rally support for the leadership.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is anticipated to announce a £6 billion cut to welfare as part of a series of politically fraught measures aimed at alleviating the pressure on public finances by March 26. Senior figures within Labour are adamant that reform is essential to provide value for taxpayers and assist those trapped on benefits in re-entering the workforce. Currently, approximately 3.2 million individuals find themselves ensnared in a system where their entire benefits package may be reassessed if they attempt to return to work.
The Work and Pensions Secretary, Liz Kendall, is expected to unveil plans that will eliminate the highest tier of disability benefits, allowing jobseekers to double their income if deemed unfit for work. This week, Kendall is conducting private one-on-one meetings with concerned Labour MPs, who, faced with the absence of a voting opportunity on the welfare changes, are making last-ditch efforts to sway her considerations ahead of the draft legislation’s release.
However, the broader issue of party management looms large. Following a series of contentious decisions regarding the two-child benefit cap, winter fuel payments, overseas aid, and denial of compensation for Waspi women, Starmer is encountering mounting frustration from Labour MPs who perceive his leadership as veering off course. One Labour MP expressed their discontent, stating, “None of us campaigned on this nonsense. We want to be supportive, especially since we haven’t been in government for 14 years, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult.”
This MP urged Reeves to reconsider her fiscal strategies to lessen the impact of the welfare changes, emphasizing, “The world has changed—geopolitically and economically. Everything has shifted. So why can we not rethink our fiscal rules? They’re adapting in Germany, so why can’t we do the same?”
Labour’s Internal Dynamics: A Fragile Unity
Meanwhile, Starmer is attempting to quell potential dissent by expanding the ranks of those on the party’s de facto payroll. Among his 92 ministers, who receive additional remuneration on top of their MP salaries and would need to resign to vote against the Government, he also has 32 unpaid parliamentary private secretaries who are considered part of the administration, along with 27 so-called mission champions tasked with promoting Labour’s priorities and 20 Labour trade envoys.
“There’s a lot of transactional relationships, and not enough people are being brought along on this journey,” remarked another Labour MP, highlighting the challenges of maintaining party cohesion. Despite his recent focus on foreign affairs, Starmer appears to be making efforts towards party outreach, having met with party members in small groups to communicate his perspective on various policies. His upcoming address to the PLP is another indication of his intent to adopt a receptive stance. However, whether this approach will yield the desired results remains uncertain.
A Labour MP voiced skepticism about the effectiveness of these PLP meetings, stating, “They’re so orchestrated that we won’t hear anything we want to.” Another veteran MP humorously noted their intention to position themselves near the exit to discreetly leave when conversations become tedious. As far as engaging Labour MPs go, this Monday evening’s gathering doesn’t seem like the most exhilarating way to spend time.
