The Rapid Ascendancy of Generative AI
The astonishing speed at which generative AI agents such as ChatGPT have emerged—from obscurity to an essential online tool in just two years—has taken even tech insiders by surprise. Professions that are now in demand, like “prompt engineer,” were virtually non-existent until late 2022. Just a decade ago, prominent experts I encountered were largely unconcerned about the potential impact of AI on the economy and the workforce. “It’s just machine learning, and it’s nothing new,” remarked the former head of AI at Amazon. “People shouldn’t worry; it won’t replace anyone.” When I reached out to him recently, he did not respond. Others maintained that computers would never be able to rival the brain’s complex decision-making capabilities—the ability to visualize all possible solutions to a problem simultaneously and intuitively discern the best one. As for generating “content” or having original ideas, they were confident that such feats would remain beyond machine capabilities.
However, the reality has unfolded quite differently. With “large language models” like ChatGPT proliferating, our perception of the future of work seems increasingly bleak. In the past, imaginative portrayals like The Jetsons envisioned a future where robots would handle all strenuous physical tasks, liberating humanity to engage in interesting, creative endeavors. Yet, we find ourselves on an opposite trajectory.
In the significant two years since the commencement of the AI arms race, generative AI has become a commonplace tool in various fields, including graphic design, fashion, copywriting, blogging, news and feature article creation, marketing content, and social media management. It is even used for drafting scripts, generating story ideas, and editing in the entertainment sector, as well as in counseling, architecture, game design, photography, and programming tasks. The anticipated release of ChatGPT version 5 in the coming months promises to double the capabilities of its predecessors. Given these developments, it is no wonder that many professionals in creative fields—from marketing to screenwriting to journalism, along with legal and accounting sectors—are feeling anxious.
As science fiction and fantasy author Joanna Maciejewska stated in 2024, “I want AI to handle my laundry and dishes so I can focus on art and writing, not for AI to create my art and writing while I take care of the mundane tasks.” This shift indicates that soon, individuals who engage in hands-on work—such as sculptors, hairdressers, plumbers, and carpenters—might emerge as the new, prosperous middle class.
Career Guidance for Future Generations
In this evolving landscape, what advice should we offer to children and young adults regarding their future careers? After spending 25 years exploring “futurology,” I now advocate for the merits of becoming an articulate, honest, and efficient plumber, builder, or similar tradesperson, particularly in affluent areas where quality work commands higher pay. While AI can produce adequate marketing and PR materials, corporate reports, meeting summaries, and even acceptable soap operas or mundane local news articles, it is the skilled tradespeople who will showcase the unparalleled superiority of human intellect.
Last summer, during a substantial home renovation, I mistakenly ordered a custom pair of French doors that were 6cm too wide, costing £3,000. When they finally arrived after three months, I turned to Nick, our talented builder, and asked if there was any way to salvage the situation. In just half a day, equipped only with a circular saw and plenty of MDF, he crafted a solution that made the doors look as if they were precisely the right width. There’s no way AI or a robot could replicate that kind of creative problem-solving.
Even the most advanced robots struggle to navigate unpredictable environments as adeptly as humans do. Michael A. Osborne, a Professor of Machine Learning at Oxford University, emphasizes, “AI is particularly poor at grasping or empathizing with the complexities of physical reality. The tactile nature of a door is beyond its comprehension because it does not exist in the physical world.” So, what guidance do experts like Osborne offer their children regarding career choices?
Skilled Trades: A Resilient Career Choice
Futurist and acclaimed author Martin Ford, who has written extensively on the implications of AI on conventional employment, has long encouraged people to consider careers in skilled trades like plumbing. During a recent conversation, he noted that while building AI may seem like an appealing option today, history has shown us that advancements in technology often lead to unforeseen consequences. In 1865, economist William Jevons observed that as coal-powered machines became more efficient, coal consumption increased rather than decreased. Thus, as AI takes over more routine tasks, we may find an increasing need for individuals to develop and maintain the AI systems behind those tasks.
Ford cautions against complacency regarding tech careers: “A few years ago, the prevailing advice was to learn coding for guaranteed job security. However, we are now seeing that one of the most effective applications of large language models is programming itself. Some companies in the AI sector are predicting that within a year or two, they could replace even their top-tier software developers.”
Creativity Remains Paramount
Ford identifies three job categories likely to flourish in the AI era:
- Jobs requiring mobility, dexterity, and problem-solving in unpredictable environments: Professions like electrician, plumber, nurse, hairdresser, skilled construction worker, physical therapist, and farmer fall into this category. Automating these roles would necessitate advanced robotic technology that we have yet to see.
- Jobs demanding genuine creativity: Roles such as research scientists or architects, where innovation is key, will likely find AI serving as a tool that enhances human creativity rather than replacing it.
- Jobs involving building sophisticated relationships: Professions like nursing, psychology, and business consulting require a deep understanding of human emotions and motivations, making them uniquely suited for humans.
In Oxford, Professor Osborne and his co-author first identified these three “protected” job categories in a paper back in 2013, pinpointing creativity, social intelligence, and manual dexterity as essential skills. Upon revisiting their findings last year, they affirmed these conclusions.
The Middle Class Faces Challenges
Osborne theorizes that those most vulnerable to AI’s impact will be mid-level professionals in their fields. Low-skilled workers—who may struggle with tasks like writing emails—will benefit from AI enhancements that make their jobs more secure. Conversely, high-skilled individuals will continue to excel, as AI, despite its advancements, cannot fully replicate their abilities.
However, those in the middle may face significant competition from newcomers utilizing AI tools. This scenario mirrors the upheaval that occurred with the rise of ride-sharing services like Uber, which intensified competition among drivers. In that situation, navigation apps democratized the market, putting pressure on average drivers while highly skilled chauffeurs retained their lucrative positions due to their experience and expertise.
Strategies for Thriving in an AI-Driven World
Given this landscape, what can individuals do to adapt without undergoing drastic career changes? For those reluctant to become plumbers, stunt performers, underwater welders, bodyguards, or firefighters—jobs currently considered AI-proof—how can they pivot? This question has become a focal point of discussion in the workplace.
The emerging consensus suggests that we should leverage AI’s data-processing capabilities rather than resist them, focusing on developing skills that remain distinctly human. Professions requiring emotional intelligence, empathy, and communication will likely continue to thrive. Skills such as leading teams, making informed decisions based on AI outputs, interpreting and refining AI-generated suggestions, and negotiation are expected to remain in high demand.
For those not inclined toward management, there are ample frontline opportunities that require what technologists humorously refer to as “wetware”—that is, a human brain. The ability to adapt AI-generated content into compelling and relevant material will remain a valuable asset. Additionally, mastering the art of crafting effective prompts for AI will probably remain a uniquely human skill.
Finally, it’s worth remembering that in the 1970s, many predicted that “computerization” would lead to a future where we would be working just one day a week, spending the rest of our time engaging in creative pursuits like poetry. Few anticipated that the IT sector would evolve into a vast employment opportunity, enabling people to build fulfilling, long-term careers. For those who are adaptable and forward-thinking, there remains a strong likelihood that AI will prove to be a catalyst for making work more enriching and enjoyable, ultimately enhancing our quality of life.
