The Gaza Ceasefire: An Impasse as Negotiations Stall
The initial phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is set to expire on Saturday, with no significant progress achieved in negotiations regarding the subsequent stage. Mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and the United States convened in Cairo on Thursday but were unable to forge an agreement to extend the ceasefire, which initially took effect on January 19. This agreement had temporarily halted 15 months of hostilities, facilitating the exchange of 33 Israeli hostages and five Thais for approximately 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. It was intended to pave the way for further discussions aimed at solidifying the truce.
Israeli officials have previously indicated that Israel is prepared to resume military operations in Gaza if all remaining hostages are not returned. However, reports emerging on Saturday suggested that Israel is pursuing a six-week extension of the first phase of the ceasefire, a move that Hamas opposes. The militant group has called upon Israel to advance to the second phase, reaffirming its “full commitment to implementing all the terms of the agreement in all its stages and details.” Analysts suggest that this stance allows Hamas to keep the door open for further negotiations while clearly outlining its red lines for future discussions.
Will Hostilities Resume?
Both Israel and Hamas have accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement. The Gaza Government Media Office (GMO) has reported over 350 breaches, including airstrikes, military incursions, and restrictions on humanitarian aid, claiming that dozens of Palestinians have been killed or injured since the truce was established. On Saturday, Palestinian media indicated that Israeli military vehicles had opened fire in southern Rafah and the eastern outskirts of Khan Younis. Residents recounted sleepless nights filled with the sounds of gunfire and bombings.
Despite these tensions, a full-scale resumption of Israeli bombardment did not occur immediately. Hamas has accused Israel of introducing last-minute demands into the negotiations, including a proposal aimed at maintaining its occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor, a militarized border area that has become a significant sticking point in any potential long-term truce.
Next Stages of Negotiation
On Wednesday, Hamas returned the bodies of the last four Israeli captives involved in the initial phase of the ceasefire agreement, prompting Israel to release more than 600 Palestinian prisoners in response. This handover had faced delays after Israel accused Hamas of orchestrating “humiliating” ceremonies during previous hostage exchanges. A Hamas official accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of deliberately stalling the process, labeling the delay a “blatant violation” of the truce terms.
The upcoming phase of negotiations was anticipated to focus on establishing a permanent ceasefire, the exchange of remaining hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Israeli estimates suggest that 59 hostages remain in Gaza, with 24 believed to be alive. However, the specifics of the agreement remain unclear, with many details still needing resolution in future talks.
The final phase of the deal envisions the return of all deceased hostages’ remains and a comprehensive reconstruction plan for Gaza, a process expected to take years. Additionally, the third stage would address the future governance of the enclave, a significant obstacle to achieving any lasting peace agreement.
Political Turmoil in Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was scheduled to meet with his security team on Saturday in Cairo, according to local media reports. As Netanyahu deliberates on the next steps, he faces increasing pressure from within his far-right coalition, with key figures threatening to destabilize the government if the ceasefire progresses to a second phase. Noam Ostfeld, principal analyst at geopolitical risk consultancy Sibylline, noted that “Israel’s domestic concern revolves around [Finance Minister] Bezalel Smotrich, who has consistently opposed any deal.”
Smotrich has even threatened to withdraw his party’s support after the government agreed to the first phase, ruling out any backing for a second phase of the deal. Should he withdraw support, it could jeopardize the government’s stability. Furthermore, ultra-Orthodox parties that support Netanyahu’s government are using this moment to push their agenda, demanding exemptions from military conscription—an action that could further fracture the coalition. In the event that no deal is reached, Ostfeld warned that liberal factions in Israeli society, along with those advocating for the release of hostages, may take to the streets in cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, exerting additional pressure on Netanyahu’s already fragile premiership.
US Arms Shipments and Military Aid
As discussions surrounding the ceasefire stall, the United States continues to provide military assistance to Israel. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has approved an emergency sale of $2 billion worth of bomb bodies and warheads, along with additional arms packages totaling nearly $1 billion. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency justified this move as vital for Israel’s “self-defense capability.”
Ostfeld identified a recent shift in the US’s position, remarking that “there was speculation that Trump favored extending the ceasefire, while Netanyahu opposed it.” However, Trump’s recent comments suggest he is now offering Netanyahu more flexibility, indicating that the decision regarding a ceasefire ultimately rests with him. This situation is complicated by Trump’s inflammatory remarks advocating for Washington to take control of Gaza and “clean it” of Palestinians, which have drawn international condemnation and raised concerns about ethnic cleansing.
As Muslims worldwide observe the holy month of Ramadan, tensions are expected to escalate in the West Bank, particularly regarding potential Israeli restrictions on access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque, a historically contentious issue that has often led to widespread unrest. Approximately 40,000 Palestinians have already been displaced in four camps in the northern occupied West Bank: Tulkarm, Nur Shams, Jenin, and Far’a. Recent attacks within Israel, including the explosion of three buses in central regions, have heightened domestic security concerns.
An Uncertain Future
As the ceasefire deadline approaches, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that the coming days are “critical” for the future of the truce. He urged all parties involved to spare no effort in avoiding a breakdown of the deal, calling on them to uphold their commitments. Humanitarian organizations emphasize the urgent need for sustained access to aid. The World Food Programme reported that under the current truce, it has managed to provide assistance to one million people in Gaza. However, with negotiations at a standstill and violence escalating, the prospects for a lasting ceasefire remain highly uncertain.
