Reform UK operates in a manner strikingly similar to the Brexit Party and Ukip before it: a dwindling spectacle of inflated male egos wrestling for supremacy. Should they ever find themselves in government—an absurd notion—chaos would likely ensue within a week. After months of being touted as a rising force—an amusingly far-fetched idea—they are now visibly disintegrating. The party is embroiled in internal strife, has lost an MP, and its leader has been unmasked as a long-time apologist for Vladimir Putin. What was once perceived as the relentless advance of the Reform juggernaut has now ground to a halt in the muck of discord.
This scenario is not new. Douglas Carswell made history as the first Ukip MP in the House of Commons when he defected from the Conservative Party in 2014. Within a mere year, he was covertly undermining Nigel Farage’s leadership, ultimately calling for his ousting. “He has made some history,” then-Prime Minister David Cameron remarked during PMQs, “because as a party of one, he has managed to instigate a backbench rebellion, which is quite commendable.”
The dynamics have remained unchanged over the years. Any organization that Farage leads is characterized by paranoia and narcissism. It’s akin to employing Gollum as your party organizer.
On Tuesday, the Metropolitan Police announced an investigation into Reform MP Rupert Lowe for alleged threats against party chair Zia Yusuf. This was one of multiple accusations made against Lowe by the party last Friday, which he denies, including claims of workplace bullying and “evidence of derogatory and discriminatory remarks.”
The timing of these allegations was notably convenient, surfacing just a day after Lowe labeled Farage as having “messianic” tendencies, and weeks after he was selected by Elon Musk as his preferred leader of the party. Lowe may soon join former deputy leader Ben Habib in forming a new breakaway right-wing faction. For a party with five MPs to create a parliamentary splinter group is almost as remarkable as Carswell’s solitary backbench rebellion.
Meanwhile, Farage’s typically sharp political instincts seem to be failing him. One of his notable talents has been knowing how to tread the line with public sentiment while progressively steering it toward the right. Even in the 2010s, when he expressed discomfort on trains with passengers speaking foreign languages, he was astute enough to distance himself from Theresa May’s controversial “Go Home” anti-immigrant vans. Yet, recently, he appears to have lost that intuitive grasp of how far he can push public opinion.
Following Trump’s disastrous encounter with Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House, numerous right-wing figures who once lauded his victory, including Andrew Neil, have since distanced themselves. Even Trump loyalists like Boris Johnson and Kemi Badenoch swiftly asserted that “no one approved of what transpired in the White House.”
However, Farage’s desperation for Trump’s approval and his evident admiration for Vladimir Putin have led him to compromise his own political interests. “If I showed up at the White House,” he stated on LBC, “I’d ensure I was dressed in a suit.” He went on to claim that the Ukrainian leader had “overplayed his hand” and was “very unwise.”
In truth, it was Farage who overstepped. While he occasionally acknowledges Russian culpability, he consistently attempts to defend Putin by asserting that the West provoked the conflict. This time, he has firmly turned against public sentiment.
It’s conceivable that this turmoil may not significantly impact the party’s fortunes. The forthcoming byelection in Runcorn and Helsby could still result in a Reform victory. Polling suggests the party remains competitive, likely unaffected by the Lowe-Farage fallout, probably because few people even recognize who Lowe is. Recent polling from More in Common indicates that the party stands level with Labour at 25 percent. However, a closer examination reveals signs of deterioration. The byelection presents a formidable challenge for Reform, as they garnered just 18 percent in the seat during the last general election compared to Labour’s 53 percent.
While Westminster journalists may be inclined to view a Farage victory as a foregone conclusion, achieving such a result is far more complicated than it appears. Should he fall short, it would be perceived as a monumental setback—an outright challenge to the sense of inevitability he has carefully cultivated since the last election.
Reform’s polling appears stagnant. After a surge last autumn that created an impression of unstoppable momentum, it has become evident that Farage has reached his peak at around 20 percent. Essentially, the support from Labour or Tory voters serves as his ceiling.
Since his remarks regarding Zelensky, Farage’s personal popularity has taken a hit, plummeting from a high of -8 to -18 in March, according to More in Common.
The stark reality for Reform UK is this: they are unlikely to ever attain governance, as the first-past-the-post electoral system inherently disadvantages smaller parties with broad appeal, much like it does the Green Party or did to the Alliance during the Thatcher era. Farage can assert repeatedly that Reform is on the cusp of winning the next election, but such claims lack credibility. Instead, the party will continue to fracture, embroiled in trivial squabbles fueled by the toxic egos of its leaders, rather than any meaningful political ideology or strategic differences.
As the dust settles, it is becoming increasingly evident what Farage truly represents: an apologist for Russian aggression and a populist jester. Should he ever manage to seize power, he would likely wreak havoc on Britain’s reputation and economy in a manner reminiscent of the damage inflicted by his idol, Donald Trump, on the United States. In essence, he’s a figure of ridicule, surrounded by a cadre of fools, and the public is beginning to see the punchline.
