A Message in Madison, Wisconsin, Before a Key Supreme Court Race
Credit: Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times
It often seems that the Democratic Party faces an uphill battle to regain its footing and win elections in the current political landscape. The party’s agenda feels somewhat stagnant, and many of its supporters are disillusioned. Additionally, Democratic politicians have encountered challenges in presenting a robust opposition to President Trump’s administration. However, on this particular night—and during many Tuesday nights to come—the election results could easily overshadow the party’s struggles.
Since the inauguration of President Trump, Democrats have shown remarkable resilience in special elections. On average, they have outperformed Kamala Harris’s previous showing by an impressive 12 percentage points across 11 special elections, as reported by The Downballot. This trend includes the successful flipping of two traditionally Republican districts in Iowa and Pennsylvania.
The momentum of Democratic strength is expected to continue today, as voters in Florida’s First and Sixth Districts head to the polls to fill the vacancies left by Matt Gaetz and the embattled national security adviser Michael Waltz. While Democrats are not projected to win these races outright, indications suggest that the Sixth District could be highly competitive, especially considering that Trump won it by a staggering 30 points in the last election cycle. Moreover, Democrats have even greater grounds for optimism regarding the scheduled election for the Supreme Court in Wisconsin.
If you have been following the political scene for some time, the Democratic Party’s effectiveness in special and off-year elections may not be entirely surprising. Throughout the Trump era, Democrats have consistently excelled in low-turnout elections, seemingly thriving among the most engaged and regular voters. This trend can be attributed in part to the party’s appeal among college-educated individuals; however, the advantages extend beyond mere demographics.
