Reform UK Surges Ahead of Labour in Recent Polling
In a surprising twist in British politics, Reform UK has managed to pull ahead of the Labour Party in a recent opinion poll conducted for The i Paper. The BMG Research survey reveals that 27 percent of respondents support Nigel Farage’s party, placing it just ahead of Labour, which garnered 26 percent. However, it’s worth noting that this lead falls within the margin of error of the survey.
The Conservative Party, led by Kemi Badenoch, lags behind with only 22 percent support, marking the party’s lowest rating since the general election held in July 2024. This development adds to the mounting pressure on Badenoch, who has faced a series of challenges ranging from lackluster performances during Prime Minister’s Questions to increasing speculation about her potential resignation from within her own ranks.
The polling was conducted over Tuesday and Wednesday and suggests that Sir Keir Starmer’s recent announcement to reduce the foreign aid budget in order to increase defense spending—partly an effort to regain voters who have shifted their allegiance to Reform—has not yet resonated with the public. Starmer’s decision comes amid growing concern within Labour about the rising threat posed by Reform UK, particularly following the success of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which secured second place in the recent German elections.
This latest survey from BMG is part of a trend that indicates Reform UK is gaining traction among voters. Although the next general election is still some time away, these results hint at a growing popularity for Farage’s party among the electorate. Notably, Farage’s reputation as a controversial leader appears to be improving; the percentage of voters satisfied with his performance has risen to 32 percent, nearly matching the 33 percent who expressed dissatisfaction. His overall satisfaction rating now stands at -1, a stark contrast to the Prime Minister’s rating of -30.
While Kemi Badenoch holds a slight edge with a satisfaction rating of +1, fewer voters seem to have formed a strong opinion about her performance compared to their views on Farage or Starmer, indicating potential challenges in gaining visibility.
- Concerns over immigration remain a significant driver for Reform UK, with 29 percent of voters expressing trust in the party to handle this issue, compared to 18 percent for Labour and 15 percent for the Conservatives.
- Reform also leads on the issue of crime, with 22 percent of respondents trusting them to address this concern effectively.
- However, when it comes to the cost of living—the most critical issue for voters—Reform’s support at 18 percent trails both Labour (21 percent) and the Tories (19 percent).
Oliver White, a pollster at BMG, commented, “Reform’s momentum shows no signs of slowing. Our poll indicates that, if a general election were held tomorrow, Reform would capture the largest share of the vote. Although Labour’s numbers are within the margin of error, the significant lead Reform has over the Tories is noteworthy. Moreover, satisfaction with Nigel Farage as a party leader is on the rise, with levels of satisfaction and dissatisfaction now nearly equal.”
He added, “In contrast, Keir Starmer continues to struggle with public approval, and many voters have yet to form a definitive opinion on Kemi Badenoch. Immigration concerns are clearly driving Reform UK’s success, but they are also gaining trust in other policy areas such as crime and the cost of living.”
BMG conducted this poll with 1,586 adults in Great Britain on February 25 and 26, utilizing online methods. The results were weighted to accurately reflect the demographic profile of adults in Great Britain. BMG is a proud member of the British Polling Council.
