Putin: A Formidable Negotiator in Peace Talks
Vladimir Putin is widely recognized as a formidable negotiator, and concerns have been raised that he may abandon a ceasefire agreement if it does not align with Russia’s strategic interests. Recently, Ukraine agreed to a US-brokered 30-day ceasefire following crucial discussions in Saudi Arabia. This truce represents a tentative step towards a more permanent peace settlement in a conflict that has taken a devastating toll, claiming hundreds of thousands of lives.
However, a senior aide in the Kremlin has dismissed the ceasefire proposal, labeling it a mere opportunity for Ukraine to regroup. This dismissal comes just hours before Putin is scheduled to meet with US envoy Steve Witkoff to deliberate on the offer. Russian journalist Andrei Kolesnikov has indicated that Putin is expected to engage with Witkoff after discussions with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.
Yury Ushakov, Putin’s senior foreign policy adviser, conveyed on state television that Witkoff would be meeting with “high-ranking Russian representatives,” and a direct meeting with Putin was “not excluded.” Nevertheless, Ushakov emphasized that the ceasefire represents only a temporary reprieve for Ukrainian forces, stating, “It seems to me that no one needs any steps that merely imitate peaceful actions in this situation.” With the peace talks precariously balanced, the challenge remains: how can anyone effectively negotiate an end to the three-year conflict instigated by Putin?
Putin: A Diplomatic Force Focused on Russia’s Interests
Tony Brenton, who served as the British ambassador to Russia from 2004 to 2008, has firsthand experience of Putin’s negotiating prowess. He describes Putin as a “formidable” diplomat, noting that “He is very unsentimental. He reads his briefs, which not all politicians do, and he knows what his objectives are.” Brenton recalls that Putin maintained a fairly amicable relationship with former Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair, showcasing his diplomatic finesse.
Brenton, who navigated the diplomatic fallout following the 2006 assassination of former FSB officer and Putin critic Alexander Litvinenko, perceives Putin not as a master strategist but as an opportunist. He emphasizes that the Russian leader is not inherently untrustworthy, provided the deal is favorable for Russia. “What he’s concerned about is how any deal comes off for Russia. He’s a ‘make Russia great again’ man, similar to Trump’s ‘make America great again’ mantra,” Brenton remarked. He cautioned, “My experience is that the Kremlin does break agreements, but only if they believe it no longer serves Russia’s interests.”
Strategic Approaches for US Negotiators
Brenton advises the US delegation to adopt a strategic approach: “Know what you want, understand your arguments, and illustrate to Putin the benefits for Russia.” In the context of ceasefire negotiations, he suggests identifying a few “sweeteners” that would enable Putin to present the deal as advantageous to the Russian populace. Among these bargaining chips could be the lifting of sanctions imposed on the Russian economy.
Another pivotal consideration is ensuring that Ukraine, which shares a 600-mile border with Russia, commits to a neutral stance. “When Putin has to justify the deal to his people, he will prominently feature the idea that Ukraine will be neutral, not an enemy, and not a NATO member,” Brenton explained. “This has been a critical narrative for Russia throughout the war. The closer we get to solidifying that assurance, the more appealing the deal will become for him.”
The Complexities of Ceasefire Negotiations
Brenton acknowledges the intricate task of appeasing Russian demands without inviting further aggression, drawing parallels to the UK’s historical attempts to appease fascist Italy and Germany in the 1930s. He notes that UK opposition leader Keir Starmer has recently stated that negotiation is the only viable option, asserting that “there is no Plan B other than a continuation of the conflict.”
Is a Ceasefire Achievable?
Despite the challenges, Brenton sees a potential pathway to agreement if the right incentives are offered to Putin, although he stresses that patience will be necessary. “Putin is very mistrustful. He views those on the other side of the negotiating table in a similar light to how we view him: as individuals who may betray him,” he remarked. “We need to establish assurances that such betrayals won’t occur, but I remain optimistic.” He cautions, however, that progress may not be as swift as some might hope. “Even if they agree on a ceasefire in principle, there will be a need for oversight of the frontlines and mechanisms to address any breaches, which will all require time to negotiate. It might be prudent to extend an offer and allow Putin the space to contemplate it carefully.”
