International Air Force Coalition Proposed for Ukraine’s Skies
A former RAF commander has suggested that a multinational “coalition of the willing” air force could oversee Ukraine’s airspace if US fighter jets are not included in any potential peacekeeping mission. Retired Air Marshal Greg Bagwell emphasized the necessity of rearming Ukraine’s military forces as a strong deterrent against further Russian aggression, particularly after a ceasefire.
On the horizon, UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, alongside European leaders, will convene a summit in London, aware that American troops are unlikely to participate in a post-conflict ground operation. Recently, during a meeting with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, former President Donald Trump refrained from promising US air power for Ukraine, asserting that British forces are capable of self-defense.
During their discussions at the White House, Starmer reportedly urged Trump to provide assurances regarding aerial intelligence and last-resort air support. Bagwell, who has experience in managing no-fly zones in Iraq and leading RAF operations in Syria and Libya, suggested that if NATO does not participate, the United Nations could take charge of any peacekeeping initiatives, with nations like Australia potentially joining a larger Western coalition.
Bagwell shared with The i Paper, “We can establish a coalition of the willing. If there is a broad consensus among nations willing to contribute, it merely requires someone to sit down and organize the necessary resources: ‘We need 10 of these, two of those, four of these—who will fill which roles?'” He further elaborated, “The deployment can be sustainable long-term. We have maintained small numbers of aircraft overseas, whether in Cyprus or the Baltics, for years.” However, he cautioned that scenarios excluding US involvement would present “higher risks” and “potentially greater costs.”
He posed a critical question: “Are we genuinely suggesting that if Russia were to invade, the UK and France would engage in direct conflict with Russia on the Ukrainian border? That scenario is significantly more complicated.” Starmer has consistently warned that without robust security guarantees from the US, Vladimir Putin could contemplate another invasion of Ukraine.
Trump has indicated that the presence of US personnel in Ukraine, tied to a unique mineral deal with Kyiv, would serve as a deterrent against Russian advances, yet such a presence also risks escalating the conflict. “If Russia were to breach the established borders and harm American mineral workers or UK or French troops, the notion that the US would remain uninvolved is difficult to comprehend,” Bagwell remarked.
Bagwell believes that a substantial number of surveillance operations could effectively be launched from other European nations rather than directly from bases in Ukraine. He noted that the RAF is more likely to utilize its fleet of 121 Typhoon jets rather than the 32 F-35B Lightning II jets, as the former offers longer flight durations and are already in use by NATO allies, including Germany, Spain, and Italy.
- “If we deploy a mix of aircraft from various countries, they will be able to operate seamlessly together,” he stated.
- Furthermore, Bagwell mentioned that RC-135W Rivet Joint electronic surveillance aircraft would be deployed should Trump decline UK requests for US spy planes and satellite systems.
- The RAF operates three Rivet Joint surveillance jets, significantly fewer than the US’s 17, with these aircraft stationed at RAF Waddington in Lincolnshire.
NATO may also consider sending surveillance planes from its E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control base located in Geilenkirchen, Germany. However, Bagwell pointed out that significant concerns remain about how to ensure that any Western air force effectively deters Russian actions in the absence of US involvement.
He recalled an incident in September 2022 when a Russian SU-27 fighter jet attempted to shoot down an RAF surveillance plane, mistakenly believing it had received permission to engage. The Russian pilot launched an air-to-air missile that, fortunately, failed to lock onto its target. “To what extent does that play into the deterrent role if Russia decides to act against us?” Bagwell questioned regarding any future peacekeeping operations.
Bagwell suggested, “One could argue that Ukraine itself could serve as the backstop. If Ukraine is adequately rearmed and allowed time to recuperate, it could maintain a formidable army and air force ready to fend off any resurgence of Russian hostilities.” He cautioned, however, that the level of aggressiveness of any peacekeeping force must be carefully considered, expressing the belief that such a force should remain largely passive to avoid direct confrontation with Russia.
In conclusion, while Typhoons currently protect UK and overseas bases, any air policing efforts would undoubtedly strain the RAF; however, Bagwell believes such efforts would not be in vain, given that Russia continues to pose the greatest threat. “If we are already on site conducting surveillance, that is probably a prudent strategy,” he noted. “We routinely deploy aircraft in Romania or the Baltics; now we are merely discussing the possibility of stationing them in Ukraine.”
