Plans for Peace in Ukraine Face Uncertain Future
Recent developments regarding peace in Ukraine have been thrown into disarray following a heated confrontation in the Oval Office between former President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This incident, which occurred on Friday, raised significant doubts about the prospects for a peaceful resolution to the ongoing conflict.
In response, Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of the UK, publicly expressed his support for Zelensky on Saturday, welcoming him warmly as he arrived at No 10 Downing Street. European leaders, spearheaded by Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, are now collaborating to devise a comprehensive peace plan that will ultimately be presented to Trump, in hopes of mending the strained diplomatic relations.
The UK and France Take the Lead on a New Peace Initiative
On Sunday, Starmer indicated that the UK would collaborate with France, and potentially a few other allies, to create a peace proposal for Ukraine, which will then be discussed with the United States. Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of UK and NATO Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) forces, emphasized that the UK and France must take the initiative and do the “heavy lifting” required to secure a peace agreement.
De Bretton-Gordon remarked, “We are discovering that we cannot take the Trump, Vance, and Musk team at face value. They often have these dramatic outbursts, yet their positions can quickly change.”
Mark Galeotti, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, noted that Trump’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin will remain crucial in any negotiations with Russia, irrespective of the proposals that France and the UK may present. According to Galeotti, Putin views European leaders as allies of Ukraine who are supplying arms, rather than as neutral mediators, which undermines their ability to facilitate a mutually acceptable deal. He added that while Trump has previously suggested that Ukraine may not regain all territories lost to Russia, Britain and France have yet to confront this “depressing but unavoidable reality.”
Potential Reconciliation between Trump and Zelensky
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suggested that Zelensky should “apologize” to Trump; however, the Ukrainian President has refrained from doing so thus far. Lord Mandelson, the UK ambassador in Washington, urged Zelensky to reconcile with Trump and lend “unequivocal backing” to the initiative that Trump is pursuing to facilitate peace with Russia.
Mandelson encouraged Zelensky to sign a minerals deal—an economic agreement that would grant the U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits—and to realign with Trump. He implied that this minerals deal could serve as a potential U.S. security guarantee in the event of a ceasefire, stating, “It will mean that U.S. commercial interests and citizens will be present on the ground, providing a strong incentive for the U.S. to ensure Ukraine’s protection in the future and to prevent another escalation of war.” He also recommended that Ukraine should agree to a ceasefire prior to Russia doing so.
Zelensky’s frustration stems from his desire for the U.S. to take a more resolute stance in support of Ukraine. Tensions escalated during Friday’s Oval Office meeting when U.S. Vice-President JD Vance, who was present, stated that the war must be resolved through diplomacy. In response, Zelensky questioned, “What kind of diplomacy?” citing Russia’s violation of a previous ceasefire agreement established in 2019, three years before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Vance accused Zelensky of being disrespectful and “litigating” the situation in front of the cameras, with Trump expressing agreement.
If a reconciliation were to occur, the minerals deal that Zelensky and Trump were on the verge of signing could once again become a viable option. De Bretton-Gordon stated, “If the Americans are involved, that would create a significant barrier for Putin to violate any ceasefire.” However, Galeotti expressed skepticism regarding the effectiveness of the deal, asserting, “Trump can sign a minerals deal, but this relies on U.S. companies being willing to invest substantial amounts of money to exploit these resources. This process does not happen overnight, if it happens at all. Would they really want to get involved in what remains a live war zone?”
While the minerals deal might not provide immediate protection for Ukraine following a ceasefire, it could lay the groundwork for a deeper economic partnership between Ukraine and the U.S. in the long run. Nevertheless, Galeotti warned that even if the deal were to proceed, Russia might still conduct targeted attacks that avoid damaging U.S. economic interests.
UK and France’s Commitment to Peacekeeping in Ukraine
Trump has yet to clarify whether the U.S. will extend security guarantees to Ukraine—a critical demand from Zelensky—in the event of a ceasefire. However, the UK, France, and several Nordic nations have indicated their willingness to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine. Additionally, they and other European nations could collaborate to patrol Ukrainian airspace, according to de Bretton-Gordon.
He noted that Germany appears to have adopted a “change in tone” and might be more forthcoming in providing assistance. Although Italy and Greece have not actively participated thus far, they possess significant air power. “Europe has enough military capacity to accomplish this, but it will be a stretch,” he acknowledged. “The U.S. holds the key—if they put their support on the table, the likelihood of Russian aggression during a ceasefire diminishes considerably. I believe European NATO members can manage this independently if necessary.”
The Risk of U.S. Funding Withdrawal
Trump has signaled intentions to halt U.S. funding for Ukraine’s war efforts against Russia. De Bretton-Gordon believes that Europe could step up to fill this funding gap to avert Ukraine’s total defeat; however, Galeotti remains doubtful. “There is not a strong enthusiasm among European leaders to significantly increase their financial commitments,” he said. “Even in the event they decide to do so, it will take time. You cannot simply raise armies as if ordering from Amazon Prime.”
It is estimated that without U.S. support, Ukraine would have approximately six months before its resources begin to dwindle, allowing Putin the opportunity to continue his territorial advances.
The Looming Threat of Global Conflict
De Bretton-Gordon asserted that Trump’s actions “absolutely” heighten the risk of a third world war. “The manner in which Trump appears to be appeasing Putin makes it more likely that the situation could escalate into a broader conflict,” he warned. “To suggest that Zelensky is the provocateur is, frankly, absurd. He seems to overlook that Putin initiated the invasion in the first place.”
Conversely, Galeotti does not believe that a conflict with advanced Western nations, particularly those in NATO, is on Putin’s agenda. He argued that given Putin’s current struggles to defeat Ukraine, attacking a country like Poland, which is rapidly arming itself, would pose an even greater challenge.
