Negotiating Peace: Prospects for a Deal Between Russia and Ukraine
Military analysts suggest that Vladimir Putin could be open to negotiating a peace agreement with Ukraine if Nato offers enhanced security arrangements to Russia. This perspective is supported by Jonathan Powell, who serves as the national security adviser to Keir Starmer and is currently involved in international discussions aimed at achieving a ceasefire. In an article he penned two years ago, Powell proposed the idea of providing assurances to Moscow as a means to facilitate compromises in peace negotiations.
In his 2023 article for Prospect magazine, Powell suggested that a non-aggression pact between Nato and Russia, akin to the detente treaties established during the Cold War, could offer Putin a pathway to retreat from his extreme territorial demands. As a seasoned peace negotiator, Powell’s insights shed light on the potential dynamics of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Emily Ferris, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), concurred with Powell, stating that Russia might be persuaded to concede ground if offered new security arrangements with Western nations. Powell is set to meet with his US counterpart, Mike Waltz, in Washington on Friday to discuss the latest developments regarding the complex negotiations with Russia.
This meeting will serve as an opportunity to review outcomes from the recent gathering in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where US and Ukrainian officials discussed a proposed 30-day ceasefire and outlined a peace plan. Additionally, Powell is expected to advocate for a backup plan concerning international peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, according to insider sources.
While it remains uncertain whether Powell’s 2023 Prospect article has directly influenced the current peace plan, Downing Street has refrained from commenting on the matter. However, some of the strategies outlined in Powell’s article echo those already considered by global leaders.
Collaborative Approaches: The ‘Group of Friends’
Powell argued against the notion of Ukraine and Russia negotiating in isolation, suggesting instead that while European powers should not be direct participants, they could act in unison to provide support as a ‘group of friends of Ukraine’. This coalition would consist of Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and other European and Nato leaders who have been engaging in parallel discussions since last month. Their aim is to forge a ‘coalition of the willing’ that could underwrite a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.
Furthermore, Powell recommended the involvement of an independent third-party mediator, such as Turkey or India, to facilitate talks in a neutral setting. Saudi Arabia, which maintains a neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict, hosted initial discussions between US and Ukrainian officials in Jeddah earlier this week.
In his article, Powell posited that it is likely Putin would attempt to draw the US into negotiations, viewing the US President as his primary equal. He noted that any private outreach from Russia could signal a growing desire to halt hostilities.
Framework for Negotiations: New Ideas to Entice Russia
Powell outlined that a lasting peace settlement would need to accommodate Ukraine’s ambitions to join the European Union. While immediate accession to Nato may not be feasible, he advised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to avoid a peace treaty that demands neutral status. Instead, Ukraine should ensure it remains a well-armed state, compelling Russia to reconsider any future invasions. He emphasized the need for Ukraine to maintain the right to procure military equipment, including aircraft, from Western allies and to receive military training on its territory.
According to Powell, Russia should commit to refraining from further aggression and be held accountable for reparations related to the conflict. However, he noted that the West must devise innovative strategies to entice Russia into negotiations, especially since Moscow is unlikely to obtain all its territorial demands.
- One clear approach would be to revisit European security frameworks, particularly in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine, which necessitates a reassessment of how to safeguard against future aggression.
- The 1990 treaty on conventional armed forces in Europe, which laid out rules for military deployments and transparency, collapsed after the Warsaw Pact’s dissolution, and it must be revisited to prevent Russia from amassing troops near its neighbors.
- Moreover, previous attempts to establish a stable relationship between Nato and Russia, as well as the negotiation of a new intermediate nuclear forces treaty in Europe, should be reconsidered.
Powell also suggested revisiting the Helsinki process of the 1970s, which facilitated the establishment of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) between the Soviet Union and Western Europe. Although the OSCE remains active, Powell criticized its current shortcomings, stressing the need to re-establish a platform for high-level discussions that has since diminished.
While Putin previously dismissed negotiations on these fronts prior to his invasion, Powell maintained that returning to these conversations is crucial not only for ensuring safety but also for providing Putin with a means to retreat from his rigid territorial demands.
Flexible Red Lines and Potential Compromises
Putin may also be more willing to make territorial compromises and adjust his ‘red lines’ if there are agreements to alleviate sanctions against Russia. Ferris from RUSI stated that Russia is currently focused on shifting the front line as far as possible during ceasefire negotiations, as they are apprehensive that any formalization of the front line might solidify their claims over disputed territories.
She added that Russia is unlikely to surrender Crimea but might be amenable to retaining the annexed regions currently under their control rather than pursuing the entirety of the area. The topics of peacekeeping and buffer zones are also of significant importance, as Russia perceives European troops as extensions of Nato and regards this as a potential escalation and security threat.
Discussions around a potential Nato-Russia treaty could be facilitated through existing frameworks such as the Nato-Russia Council, which has not convened since Russia’s invasion. Establishing security assurances that European peacekeeping forces do not pose a threat would require substantial political goodwill and trust-building between both parties.
