A Recent Rally to Support Science
President Trump’s approval ratings are already below 50 percent. Credit: Jason Andrew for The New York Times
Hello, everyone! You may have noticed that it’s been a while since my last newsletter. The reason for my absence is that I’ve been on leave for the past three months, and I will continue to be on leave for most of the next three. However, I wanted to take a moment to check in and share some thoughts, along with a few programming notes.
For those who have inquired: Yes, The Tilt will continue! The newsletter will gradually ramp back up as I transition back to work, and needless to say, there’s a lot to discuss. This period is anything but ordinary in American political history.
Here are a few themes that have been on my mind lately:
The Public Reaction to Trump’s Second Term
From typical job approval surveys to deeper inquiries regarding the extent of executive power, attitudes toward President Trump are likely to dominate the discourse this year. My colleagues have already begun compiling an array of polls focused on his approval ratings, and we will be adding charts that illustrate the polling averages in the upcoming weeks.
At present, Mr. Trump has squandered what little of a post-election honeymoon he had. His approval rating has dipped back below 50 percent, with a slight majority of Americans expressing disapproval of his performance. This places his standing roughly where it was prior to the election.
There are compelling reasons to believe that his ratings may continue to decline. One notable principle in American politics is that public opinion often shifts in opposition to the direction of policy changes. Some political scientists refer to this phenomenon as “thermostatic public opinion,” where the public metaphorically turns down the air conditioning to cool things off when the government appears to be operating too aggressively. Few presidents have managed to run the government as hot as Mr. Trump, and there seems to be little indication that he will voluntarily dial back his approach.
