Lessons from Germany: A Wake-Up Call for Sir Keir Starmer
In the aftermath of the recent German election, where the ruling centre-left Social Democrats Party (SDP) was unseated after just one term, Labour MPs and political analysts are urging Sir Keir Starmer to heed the warning signs. The dramatic shift in the German political landscape, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) making substantial gains to secure second place, has raised alarms within the UK Labour Party.
The political climate in Germany serves as a cautionary tale for Labour, particularly as the party grapples with the rising threat from Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK. While there are notable ideological differences between Reform UK and the AfD—whose past associations with extremism are well-documented—the fact that the party most vocal on immigration is gaining traction is concerning for many within Labour.
One Labour MP commented on the implications of the German election, stating that it “illustrated the fact that we are slipping towards this kind of result in four years’ time.” This MP highlighted the “strong parallels” between the evolving political dynamics in Germany and those in the UK, referencing the SDP’s ascent following the decline in support for the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), all occurring without a significant surge in voter enthusiasm.
To address this potential crisis, the MP emphasized the need for Labour to pivot strategically to confront the Reform threat proactively, rather than reactively in a state of panic as the next election approaches. “This means committing to reducing net migration numbers and bolstering public service funding, including defense. If that requires deviating from our fiscal rules, then so be it,” they asserted.
Another Labour MP echoed these sentiments, stressing that the rise of right-wing politics across Europe necessitates a shift in Labour’s approach. “Too many within the party cling to a soft liberal-left perspective. We must adapt to these changes much more swiftly,” they cautioned.
This call for a strategic realignment comes in light of Richard Tice’s efforts to distance Reform UK from the AfD. When questioned about ideological similarities, Tice firmly stated, “No, absolutely not.” His assertions underscore the party’s desire to present itself as a UK-centric, pragmatic alternative with viable solutions for the nation.
The voting statistics from Germany reveal that 38% of voters identifying as “working class” cast their ballots for the AfD, with support among younger voters aged 18 to 24 tripling since 2021. This trend raises concerns among Labour MPs, particularly as one noted the appeal of “Trumpian, demagogue-style politics” to some young men, drawn to its simplistic and assertive nature.
Labour’s first significant test against Reform UK is anticipated to occur in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, following the sentencing of incumbent MP Mike Amesbury to 10 weeks in jail for assault.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, remarked that Prime Minister Starmer will be “closely watching the German election results, noting how a relatively technocratic centre-left leader was ousted after just one term.” He added, “Starmer’s own political prospects, while still some time away from an election, have not looked particularly bright since the summer, and he must work to reverse this trend to avoid a similar fate.”
Hopkins further noted that Starmer’s chances may depend on the Conservative Party’s ongoing disarray and the UK’s electoral system, which is less accommodating to insurgent parties like Reform UK compared to Germany’s. “Having ascended to power without overwhelming enthusiasm—or a strong popular mandate—clinging to power again in four years solely because they are the least objectionable option will do little to improve the public’s tarnished perception of the British political system,” he concluded.
