Is Keir Starmer the Heir to Blair?
In the corridors of Westminster, a pressing question often surfaces regarding the legacy of prime ministers: who can truly be considered the heir to Tony Blair? This three-time election-winning Labour leader, once a beacon of success for the party, has become a controversial figure in some Labour circles. His enduring influence and legacy have led many to view him as the zenith of centrist politics. David Cameron, prior to his election in 2005, famously referred to himself as the “heir to Blair,” a sentiment that did not sit well with all members of his party, who found him somewhat too progressive for their tastes. Similarly, when Boris Johnson took office in 2019, he strategically chose to hold his inaugural major event in Sedgefield—Blair’s former constituency, which had shifted from Labour to Conservative hands.
Yet, as we look at the current political landscape, Keir Starmer stands as the first Labour prime minister elected since Blair. However, the comparisons drawn today are more frequently with the Conservative party than with previous Labour leaders. Could it be that Sir Keir is veering toward a more Tory approach?
In his upcoming keynote speech, Starmer will outline plans to diminish the influence of quangos and restore decision-making power to elected officials. This announcement has sparked conversation among some observers who believe Starmer is subtly shifting to the right. Recently, the Prime Minister faced backlash when he lost a minister over his decision to reduce international aid in favor of increasing defense spending. Additionally, his trusted aide, Pat McFadden, has initiated a crackdown on the Civil Service aimed at streamlining operations and addressing underperformance. This has led to a noticeable backlash from within Whitehall.
Starmer is now venturing into significant welfare reforms, proposing cuts that could amount to £6 billion, which places him on a collision path with the more progressive factions of his party. Rather than adopting a gentle approach, Starmer has issued a candid evaluation of the government’s financial situation, declaring to MPs during a recent Parliamentary Labour Party meeting that the current welfare expenditure is “indefensible.” He has indicated that Labour MPs may need to accept controversial measures, such as reducing benefits for the sick compared to those deemed capable of work. This is hardly the type of initiative that would resonate positively with the grassroots of Labour, who are more accustomed to the melodies of “The Red Flag.”
Officially, the rationale behind these decisions is attributed to the evolving global landscape. Starmer and his Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, argue that in times of global volatility, domestic security must align with international stability. This perspective necessitates increased funding for defense and strategizing around the economic repercussions of ongoing conflicts and trade tensions, which in turn requires difficult domestic choices.
However, there are deeper issues at play. The government has yet to deliver meaningful economic growth, and as long as that remains the case, there will be pressure to address the escalating welfare costs and overall spending. Given that taxes are already at their highest levels since the post-war era, and considering that financial markets would likely reject further borrowing by Reeves, cuts appear to be the next logical step.
Moreover, the dynamics within Downing Street have shifted since Sue Gray’s departure as chief of staff early in Starmer’s term. Her successor, Morgan McSweeney, has gradually infused a more politically charged atmosphere into the administration. Starmer’s key advisors in No 10 are not necessarily aligned with traditional leftist values; many hail from the blue Labour tradition, while others have observed the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and felt compelled to adapt. As a result, there is a growing sentiment within Labour that recent weeks have seen a move to the right in both policy and communication strategies, such as the Home Office’s vigorous promotion of deportations initiated under Labour.
This shift is undoubtedly disconcerting for the Labour left, who reflect on their original motivations for entering politics. However, it also presents a perplexing scenario for Conservative MPs and former advisors, who find themselves questioning, “Wasn’t this supposed to be our domain?” After all, it was the Tories who championed ambitious planning reforms, only for Boris Johnson to back down when faced with dissent from within his party. Now, former senior aide turned adversary Dominic Cummings is openly commending Labour MPs on social media, such as 2024 candidate Chris Curtis, for advocating reduced regulations and expedited timelines for major projects.
On the welfare front, the Conservatives have long talked about reforming the system, yet after over a decade in power, they left it under considerable strain. If Starmer demonstrates the resolve to pursue these reforms in the face of protest from external groups, he may achieve what the Conservatives have promised but failed to implement. One Tory MP aptly likened this situation to “Nixon goes to China,” suggesting that perhaps a government perceived as left-leaning could be better positioned to enact policies traditionally championed by the right.
The area where many Tories are particularly hopeful for this scenario to unfold is in NHS reform. Wes Streeting is preparing to intensify reform initiatives in the coming months, with his team anticipating turbulence as they navigate this sensitive political landscape. “If we attempted this, everyone would react hysterically, claiming we were privatising the NHS and adopting a US model, but Wes might have a chance,” remarked a former government advisor.
Ultimately, the success of these plans hinges on their execution; they could either falter under pressure or prove insufficient. Nevertheless, as Starmer charts his new course, the Conservatives observe with a mix of envy, admiration, and occasional optimism.
Katy Balls is the political editor at ‘The Spectator’
