Infighting Within Reform UK: A Potential Setback for Local Elections
Concerns have been raised by polling expert Lord Hayward regarding the ongoing infighting within Reform UK, suggesting that if the discord continues, it could severely impact the party’s prospects in the upcoming local elections. According to Hayward, Nigel Farage should set a target of securing 450 councillors to deem the election night a success, but he warned that the party is presently lagging behind its national polling in council by-elections.
The local elections, scheduled for May 1, represent the first significant electoral challenge for the parties since the general election last year. This election is particularly crucial for Reform UK, which is eager to generate momentum leading up to the next general election, a contest they firmly believe they can win.
However, the party has recently found itself embroiled in controversy, particularly due to a remarkable dispute involving MP Rupert Lowe. Lowe has had the party whip withdrawn and has reportedly been reported to police over allegations of physically threatening the party chairman, Zia Yusuf. While Lowe has vehemently denied these claims, labeling them as “outrageous and entirely untrue,” he has suggested that the party is retaliating against him for openly challenging Farage.
In a briefing prior to the local elections, Lord Hayward commented on the potential impact of this internal strife on Reform UK’s electoral performance. “At this stage, I don’t think it will make a significant difference,” he remarked. However, he cautioned that if the dispute continues, it could become detrimental. “It would only harm them if Nigel Farage is particularly affected by the ongoing argument,” he added.
Hayward emphasized that Reform UK is largely seen as “the Nigel Farage show,” and thus far, Farage has not sustained substantial damage from the ongoing conflict. He noted that it is Rupert Lowe who has been making headlines rather than Farage. “For Reform to actually be harmed in terms of their electoral potential, this situation would need to escalate or persist for another week,” he explained.
As a Conservative peer, Lord Hayward articulated that a target of 450 councillors would be a reasonable benchmark for Labour, the Conservatives, and Reform UK to achieve in the upcoming elections. He noted that Reform is drawing support from various demographics, stating, “It’s no longer just Conservative voters; they’re attracting individuals from all sorts of different backgrounds.”
However, Hayward pointed out a significant disadvantage for Reform: Labour and Conservative parties have effectively organized postal votes in most areas, while Reform has not. He added that older demographics, who tend to vote more consistently, are increasingly aligning with Reform’s platform.
Lord Hayward identified Lincolnshire as a “natural target” for Reform, given that both the county council and the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty are on the ballot. Despite leading in several recent national polls, he observed that the party has yet to convert this support into tangible results in council by-elections. Of the 27 council by-elections they have contested since the start of the year, Reform has secured victories in only four. In contrast, the Conservatives have achieved twice as many by-election wins since the general election.
“Reform is consistently polling well, but if they are indeed in the lead as they claim, they should be able to convert that support into more wins than they currently are,” he contended. He further noted that the Conservatives face a significant challenge in the upcoming elections, as the last contests took place in 2021 during the peak of Boris Johnson’s “vaccine bounce,” which led to an unusually high number of Tory victories.
Lord Hayward concluded by remarking that the Conservative Party is still recovering from its general election defeat, emphasizing that “brands take a long time to turn around.” Meanwhile, he suggested that Labour’s anticipated results might be inflated due to the fact that they “took a hammering” in the 2021 elections, thereby setting a relatively low baseline for comparison.
