Infighting in Reform UK Could Impact Local Election Prospects
Infighting within Reform UK poses a significant risk to the party’s chances in the upcoming local elections, particularly if the discord “continues to fester,” according to polling expert Lord Hayward. He emphasized that Nigel Farage should set an ambitious target of securing 450 councillors to deem the election results a success. However, he expressed concern that the party is currently lagging behind its national polling figures in council by-elections.
The local elections scheduled for 1 May in England represent the first major electoral challenge for political parties since the general election held in 2024. This election is especially crucial for Reform, which is eager to gain momentum as it looks ahead to the next general election, a contest the party claims it can win.
Recently, Reform has been shaken by a dramatic internal conflict involving MP Rupert Lowe, who has had his party whip withdrawn and has been reported to law enforcement over allegations of physically threatening party chairman Zia Yusuf. Lowe has vehemently denied these accusations, labeling them as “outrageous and entirely untrue,” and has suggested that the party’s actions against him stem from his public challenge to Farage.
In a briefing ahead of the local elections, Lord Hayward commented on the potential impact of this internal strife on Reform’s performance. He stated, “At this stage, I don’t believe it will have a significant impact. However, if this situation persists, it could begin to affect the party’s prospects, particularly if Nigel Farage becomes embroiled in the controversy.”
Hayward continued, “Reform is essentially the Nigel Farage show, and thus far, he has not experienced substantial damage. Currently, it is Rupert Lowe who is garnering more media attention than Farage. If this conflict were to extend for another week or escalate further, then we could see a negative effect on Reform’s potential in the upcoming elections.”
As a Conservative peer, Lord Hayward noted that a target of 450 councillors would be a reasonable goal for Labour, the Conservatives, and Reform in this election cycle. He pointed out that Reform is attracting support from a diverse voter base, stating, “They are no longer drawing solely from Conservative voters; their support is emerging from a variety of sources.”
He also highlighted a disadvantage for Reform, explaining, “Labour and the Conservatives have organized postal voting in most regions, while Reform has not established such a system. On the flip side, older voters tend to participate more heavily, and there’s no doubt that Reform is appealing to that demographic.”
Lord Hayward identified Lincolnshire as a “natural target” for Reform, with both the county council and Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty up for grabs. Despite leading in several recent national polls, he remarked that the party has not consistently translated this polling success into wins in council by-elections. Out of the 27 council by-elections they have contested since the beginning of the year, Reform has only secured four victories. In contrast, the Conservative Party has achieved double the number of by-election gains since the last general election.
Hayward asserted, “While Reform is consistently polling well, if they are indeed leading as they claim, they ought to be converting that support into victories in more locations than they currently are.” He elaborated on the challenges facing the Conservatives, noting, “The party is grappling with a significant problem in these local elections, as the last time these seats were contested was in 2021 during the peak of Boris Johnson’s “vaccine bounce,” which resulted in an unusually high number of Conservative victories.”
He concluded by mentioning that the Conservative Party is still in the process of recovering from its general election defeat, emphasizing, “Brands take a considerable amount of time to recover and re-establish themselves in the political landscape.” Meanwhile, he suggested that Labour’s performance could be misleading, as the party suffered significant losses in 2021, setting a low benchmark for comparison.
