The potential withdrawal of military aid from the United States to Ukraine could severely compromise its air defense capabilities, limiting Kyiv’s operational effectiveness to the current levels until summer, experts have cautioned. There are significant worries that ceasing supplies of the Patriot air defense missile systems would expose Ukrainian airbases, critical energy infrastructure, and vital logistics hubs to increased vulnerability from Russian missile strikes and aerial assaults. According to estimates, the United States has provided approximately 20 percent of Ukraine’s military hardware, while 55 percent has been domestically produced in Ukraine, and the remaining 25 percent sourced from Europe and other parts of the world.
U.S. military contributions have encompassed a wide array of advanced weaponry, including Patriot missile systems, F-16 fighter jets, HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, and the cutting-edge M1A2 Abrams tanks. The U.S. military allocations comprise 45 refurbished T-72 tanks, 31 Abrams tanks, 352 Bradley vehicles, 201 Howitzers, and 39 HIMARS rocket launchers. Additionally, Ukrainian forces have utilized a variety of anti-tank missiles such as the Javelin, which gained significant attention during the conflict (Photo: Ukraine Defence Ministry/AP). Notably, Donald Trump has criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, highlighting the importance of Javelin missiles supplied during his administration in repelling Russian armored incursions in 2022. However, the current U.S. administration appears to be adopting a more confrontational stance regarding arms supplies to Ukraine, a shift that could have far-reaching global ramifications.
Air Defense
Under President Joe Biden’s administration, the U.S. has delivered the Patriot surface-to-air missile defense system, capable of intercepting threats up to 100 miles away. This system has proven effective in countering various aerial threats, including jets, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, thereby safeguarding Ukrainian cities from assaults by Russian Iskander and Kinzhal missiles. Last April, Zelensky emphasized the urgent need for Patriot systems to counter the escalating Russian air threat, asserting that they could “and should save lives right now.” In response, the Pentagon pledged to expedite the delivery of Patriot air defense missiles and artillery ammunition as part of a new military assistance package. It is worth noting that only U.S. facilities manufacture the Patriot systems, and any foreign transfers require explicit authorization from Washington.
Professor Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow specializing in airpower and technology at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), warned that a cessation of Patriot supplies would leave critical Ukrainian installations susceptible to Russian missile attacks. He stated in an interview with The i Paper: “A U.S. decision to halt the supply of interceptor ammunition for the Patriot systems would swiftly and significantly impair Ukraine’s ability to protect its electricity generation facilities, airbases, command and control nodes, and logistics centers from Russian ballistic missile strikes. In the long term, it would severely undermine Ukraine’s capacity to deter the Russian air force from deploying fast jets near the frontlines.”
Are There Alternatives to the Patriot?
If the U.S. were to cease its Patriot supplies, Ukraine might need to explore alternative European defense solutions. Currently, Ukraine possesses two European-supplied SAMP/T batteries but will require additional systems and hundreds of Aster missiles, both of which have limited availability. Professor Bronk elaborated: “In terms of defense against ballistic missiles, the Patriot system is indispensable due to its effectiveness and the scarcity of alternatives. The only European option available is the French SAMP/T system, which has already been supplied to Ukraine. However, it is not as capable as the Patriot PAC-3 MSE and is available in significantly smaller quantities for both batteries and interceptor missile stocks.” The U.S. and Norway have also provided the NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) for air defense, while Germany has contributed the Iris-T system. Malcolm Chalmers, RUSI’s deputy director-general, noted that while 20 percent of military hardware from the U.S. is the most lethal and essential, Ukraine would not necessarily “collapse” without it, although the cumulative impact would be significant. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen emphasized, “Some aspects are critical for the Ukrainians, particularly the missiles used in the Patriot air defense system, which are American. This situation underscores the necessity for Europe to increase its support for Ukraine.”
F-16 Jets
The U.S. has also supplied F-16 warplanes equipped with precision-guided munitions, which have played a pivotal role in countering Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine. The arrival of these aircraft in Ukraine followed the Biden administration’s approval for their transfer in August 2023, alongside training programs for Ukrainian pilots initiated by Western nations, including Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway, which have collectively pledged to deliver 65 or more of these advanced fighter jets.
Abrams Tanks
In January 2023, the U.S. committed to providing 31 M1 Abrams tanks, each valued at approximately $10 million (£8 million), to assist Ukraine in breaking through Russian defenses. The Abrams tanks, renowned for their advanced capabilities, weigh 67 tons, making them heavier than their Russian counterparts. Additionally, the UK contributed 14 Challenger 2 tanks, further bolstering Ukraine’s armored capabilities.
ATACMS Missiles
In November of the previous year, Ukraine executed its inaugural long-range strike into Russian territory using U.S. ATACMS missiles, which possess a range of about 190 miles and can be armed with both unitary and cluster warheads. Shortly thereafter, Ukraine launched British-made Storm Shadow missiles into Russia, defying Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats. The UK government had previously authorized their deployment, although it had been delayed due to the requirement for U.S. navigational technology to accurately identify targets.
Ukraine’s Arms Production
Current and former Western officials have indicated to the Wall Street Journal that without U.S. military assistance, Ukraine would only have sufficient weaponry to sustain its current operational tempo until the summer. However, military expert Keir Giles, affiliated with the Chatham House think tank, explained that the potential cessation of U.S. military supplies has likely been incorporated into Ukrainian strategic planning since Trump announced his candidacy for the upcoming election. “It’s improbable that any Western government would have been so neglectful as to overlook this possibility,” he remarked. He also highlighted the growth of Ukraine’s domestic defense production since the onset of the war in 2022, noting that drones have increasingly contributed to inflicting significant casualties on Russian forces. “Much of the most effective weaponry currently used against Russia is not supplied by external allies,” he stated. “It’s Ukraine’s own defense industry, which has rapidly adapted over the past three years, providing an increasing share of the armaments utilized on the battlefield. The most agile and innovative drone industry resides in Ukraine itself. Thus, supporting Ukraine’s own defense production will be crucial, alongside continued external supplies of weaponry.”
