Europe’s Crucial Support for Ukraine: A Call to Action
As the conflict in Ukraine continues, there is an urgent need for Europe to enhance its support for Ukraine’s domestic arms production and to provide alternative air defense systems in light of potential reductions in military aid from the United States. Taras Chmut, the director of the Come Back Alive foundation, which plays a vital role in assisting the Ukrainian army, emphasizes that systems like SAMP/T missile systems could help fill gaps if US supplies of Patriot missile systems are curtailed. However, he warns that losing access to US-supplied HIMARS missile systems, aviation bombs, and long-range missiles would fundamentally alter Ukraine’s capacity for precise strikes and urban defense.
Investing in Domestic Arms Production
Remarkably, approximately 96% of the drones utilized by Ukraine on the battlefield are domestically manufactured. These drones have become instrumental in inflicting significant losses on Russian forces, surpassing even artillery in their lethality. A soldier from the 244th battalion of the 112th brigade holds a Mavic drone during training exercises near Kramatorsk, showcasing the innovative spirit of Ukraine’s military.
The US has contributed over 200 155mm howitzers, 3 million corresponding artillery rounds, 72 105mm howitzers along with a million rounds, and more than 700,000 mortars. Recently, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that the country aims to fully satisfy its military’s artillery requirements with domestically produced weapons by the year’s end, while European countries are ramping up their production capacities, with plans to manufacture 2 million units by 2025.
Chmut, a well-respected military analyst in Ukraine, urges European nations to focus on bolstering investment in Ukraine’s domestic arms production. He stated, “If Europe provides sufficient funding today and in the near future, we can scale up production effectively, mitigating the potential impacts.” He further explained, “We manufacture various artillery shells, including 60mm, 82mm, 120mm, 122mm, 152mm, and 155mm, but our factories are not operating at full capacity. The challenge we face is not technical—it’s financial. Therefore, alternative funding sources could help us manage this situation. If we do not secure this support, we will inevitably feel the effects, but it will be gradual rather than immediate.”
Bridging Intelligence Gaps
Chmut also highlighted Ukraine’s heavy reliance on real-time intelligence, particularly for detecting ballistic missile launches. While much of this vital information is currently provided by the US, he believes that other nations can step in to provide the necessary real-time data. He remarked, “At present, the US supplies us with satellite reconnaissance, agent-based intelligence, and various forms of real-time data. If this support were to disappear, it would undoubtedly impact our operations, but the extent would depend on what other countries can offer.”
The potential loss of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite terminals, which are crucial for communication, intelligence-sharing, and live streaming, would be particularly detrimental if access were curtailed. Chmut noted that the fast-moving Starlink systems play a vital role in drone operations and are significantly harder to jam compared to traditional satellite systems.
Katja Bego, a senior research fellow in international security at the think-tank Chatham House, expressed confidence that Ukraine has likely developed contingency plans for alternative satellite systems after previous concerns about Musk potentially blocking access. She pointed out that countries like Sweden and Germany have already provided Ukraine with alternative military communication systems, stating, “While losing access would be serious for Ukraine, it won’t mean they will lose all capabilities overnight; it will simply mean their operations become less effective.”
Supporting Equipment Repair and Maintenance
In addition, Europe is encouraged to support the repair and maintenance of Western-supplied military equipment, ensuring that Ukraine can sustain its existing arsenals without direct US involvement. As Western-manufactured weapons sustain damage in the ongoing conflict, repairs can take considerable time.
The Lithuanian military has been training a team of Ukrainian military mechanics to repair German artillery howitzers, highlighting the importance of this support. One Ukrainian artillery unit praised the accuracy of their German self-propelled armored howitzers but reported issues such as software failures and overheating of control systems and gun barrels due to their intensive use. A lack of spare parts poses a significant concern, with commanders reporting shortages in essential components for the Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers.
Repair facilities across Europe have been established to keep billions of dollars worth of battlefield equipment operational. The US has also set up repair facilities in Poland to address Western equipment damaged on the battlefield before returning it to Ukraine.
Addressing Air Defense Gaps
Currently, Ukraine possesses six US MIM-104 Patriot missile batteries and a few from Germany, which are capable of targeting threats up to 100 miles away. These systems have played a critical role in defending major cities against the most advanced Russian missiles. President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Ukraine would require 25 Patriot systems for comprehensive coverage.
Chmut warned that if supplies of Patriot, PAC-2, and PAC-3 missiles were to cease, Ukraine’s ability to intercept ballistic missiles and counter mass drone and missile attacks would suffer significantly. He stated, “If we lose Patriot supplies, our capacity to intercept Russian ballistic missiles will be drastically reduced. We are dealing with real threats to our infrastructure, energy grids, and urban areas, such as the Iskander, Kinzhal, and S-400 missiles.”
The PAC-3 variant, specifically designed for ballistic missile interception, is particularly crucial. Chmut added, “Without the PAC-3 supply, we will face a substantial gap in our defenses.” Although Ukraine does have at least two Franco-Italian SAMP/T batteries capable of shooting down ballistic threats, the limited supply means that more will be needed if Patriot systems are no longer available. Other air defense systems, such as the Norwegian-American NASAMS, have a shorter range of approximately 40 km and primarily focus on intercepting aircraft, helicopters, and cruise missiles rather than ballistic threats.
“Yes, we have NASAMS, IRIS-T, and S-300, but they do not fulfill the same role against ballistic threats,” Chmut explained. “If Europe steps up to provide additional IRIS-T, SAMP/T, or even older Patriot batteries, we may be able to mitigate some of the losses, but it will not suffice to cover all gaps.”
