Diplomacy in Action: The Complex Web of Peace Talks
It is relatively straightforward for diplomats to convene around a negotiation table and project an air of positivity. Similarly, issuing a vague statement declaring the commencement of discussions in a “constructive manner” poses little challenge. However, the real test lies in translating these moments into a sustainable resolution for the ongoing war in Ukraine, while simultaneously generating momentum for even more ambitious diplomatic endeavors in the Middle East.
For those who closely observe international diplomacy, Saudi Arabia’s willingness to host peace talks between the United States and Ukraine, as well as between the United States and Russia, comes as no surprise. Over the past few years, the Kingdom has emerged as a significant regional player, rivaled only by Turkey. Its influence is bolstered by its provision of approximately 15 percent of the world’s oil supply. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, commonly known as MBS, is on a mission to reshape the global perception of a nation often criticized for its human rights violations. Through the ambitious Saudi Vision 2030, he aims to diversify the economy and transition towards international investment and tourism.
Hosting high-stakes diplomatic discussions is a critical component of this vision. For former President Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia was a logical destination for negotiations this week. During his first term in 2017, he made a notable visit to the royal court in Riyadh, where he was awarded the prestigious King Abdulaziz al Saud Collar, regarded as the highest civilian honor in the nation. This accolade sparkles with significance, even more so than the iconic golden escalators of Trump Tower, from which he famously descended to launch his political career in 2015.
In a striking contrast, two years later, Trump remained silent regarding US intelligence findings that implicated MBS in the assassination of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, instead choosing to refer to the Crown Prince as a “friend of mine”. Following Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election, his son-in-law and advisor, Jared Kushner, transitioned to the private sector, establishing a private equity firm reportedly receiving a $2 billion investment from the Saudi sovereign wealth fund managed by MBS. Kushner has also been vocal in his admiration for the Crown Prince, dubbing him a “visionary leader”.
- According to Thomas Lippman, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., “Saudi Arabia is now the most important power in the region, engaged in a rivalry with Turkey for influence that extends well beyond regional borders.”
- Lippman notes, “This is the kind of meeting that previously would have taken place in Geneva.”
What, then, does Trump seek from MBS in this latest round of discussions? Having dismissed the transition away from fossil fuels initiated by President Joe Biden, Trump aims for Saudi Arabia to remain a reliable oil supplier. Additionally, he desires its assistance in facilitating a broader peace agreement in the Middle East, contingent upon achieving a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Before the Hamas attacks on October 7 of the previous year, the US was actively advocating for formal diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a groundbreaking development that has yet to materialize. While behind-the-scenes interactions have improved, both nations share a vested interest in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities. For Trump, the prospect of being associated with a diplomatic breakthrough involving the Arab world’s most influential nation would have eclipsed even the achievements of the 2020 Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain.
However, any such agreement hinges on addressing the rights of the Palestinian people. Trump’s controversial proposition for Palestinians to vacate Gaza, allowing the US to transform the area into a “Riviera of the Middle East”, has drawn ire from numerous countries.
In response, Saudi Arabia has supported an alternative $53 billion plan, spearheaded by Egypt and backed by Jordan and Qatar, aimed at reconstructing Gaza by 2030 without displacing its population. Lippman expresses skepticism about whether Trump can achieve his objectives during this week’s talks, noting that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is determined to protect his country’s sovereignty. “Zelensky will go wherever necessary to save his nation,” Lippman asserts, “but he has made it clear that he will not agree to a deal that compromises any part of his country without adequate security guarantees.”
In contrast, Trump’s approach appears entirely transactional, lacking the foundation of principles or humanitarian considerations. Regarding a potential deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, wherein both nations would officially acknowledge one another, Lippman emphasizes, “Saudi Arabia will not formalize any agreement with Israel without a solution that is acceptable to the Palestinians.” He admits, “I can’t predict their motivations at this moment.”
