When Natalie Queiroz’s partner was incarcerated for attempting to murder her in a horrific knife attack, she believed he would remain imprisoned for over a decade. At the time of the assault in 2016, Ms. Queiroz was eight months pregnant and endured a brutal experience, surviving 24 stab wounds and giving birth to a healthy baby girl later that same day. Her assailant, Babur Raja, received an 18-year prison sentence. However, he could potentially be transferred to a low-security open prison as early as next month—four years sooner than anticipated—due to a policy change quietly implemented last year.
Ms. Queiroz is deeply concerned for the safety of herself and her daughter if Raja is allowed to enter open conditions, which may lead to inmates being granted temporary release. To her dismay, she has been informed that she can have “no input” in the decision-making process.
‘This man tried to murder me’
“The thought of him having access to the outside world terrifies me,” she expressed. “This man who attempted to kill both me and my daughter could be allowed out on day release; it’s simply unimaginable.”
She recounted her attempts to voice concerns: “I asked, ‘Is there anything I can say regarding the risks to me or my daughter, anything at all?’ They replied that there was no way for me to provide input.”
Both Natalie Queiroz and her daughter have been left with life-altering injuries—both physical and psychological—following the attack in 2016. Under previous regulations, Raja would not have been eligible for open conditions until 2029. However, changes made in March have enabled him, along with other serious violent or sexual offenders, to be considered for transfer at an earlier stage of their sentences. This shift occurs amidst emergency measures and early release schemes aimed at preventing England’s overcrowded prison system from reaching full capacity.
Open prisons policy not publicly announced
Internal communications from HM Prisons and Probation Service (HMPPS) indicated that the revised open prison policy, which has not been publicly disclosed, would have “no effect on public protection.” They asserted that all inmates considered for open conditions would continue to undergo individual risk assessments regarding potential escape, public harm, and criminal behavior within the prison system.
However, Ms. Queiroz contests this “dismissive” assurance, arguing that domestic-abuse offenders like her former partner present unique risks and should be barred from relaxed requirements. She believes that the good behavior displayed by such inmates to obtain a transfer to an open prison is an unreliable measure of their potential actions if given the chance to encounter their victims again.
“My ex will likely meet the criteria inside prison, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a threat to me and my child,” she stated. “Domestic abuse perpetrators should not be allowed access to open facilities at this earlier stage. They should undergo a more rigorous risk assessment, including victim input.”
“The attempted murder was meticulously planned. He was focused and remarkably calm.”
‘He’s charming. He will come across as low risk’
Ms. Queiroz added, “He’s a model prisoner… he’s the same as he was on the outside—charming and friendly to everyone. That doesn’t reduce his danger, but according to his record, he will appear as a non-violent prisoner and present a lower risk.”
An internal document reviewed by The i Paper stated that the policy modification “would have no effect on public protection, as it would only remove a barrier to consideration for open conditions” and “would not make it more likely that a prisoner who poses a high risk of escape or harm to the public” would be transferred.
It explained that long-serving inmates for serious crimes were “disadvantaged” under previous regulations, which prevented them from demonstrating progress. The previous rule mandated that inmates could only be moved to open prisons when within five years of automatic release. This requirement has now been lifted, allowing offenders to be considered for transfer when they are within three years of an earlier parole eligibility date. For Raja, this means his eligibility for open prison has shifted from 2029 to next month.
Nearly 8,700 inmates currently serving extended determinate sentences in England and Wales for serious offenses—whether violent, sexual, or terrorist—could potentially benefit from this policy change.
How open prison transfers work
Prisons in England and Wales are classified from A to D, with A signifying the highest security and D representing open prisons. Inmates are categorized based on assessments of their escape risk, potential danger to the public, and overall threats to the stability and control of the prison environment. Inmates serving long sentences for serious crimes must gradually work their way down the security levels, with open prisons allocated to those who have been risk-assessed and deemed suitable for transfer. Decisions are made by prison officials following a national “security categorization policy framework.”
This framework stipulates that individuals are only eligible for open conditions as they near the end of their minimum sentence, provided they pose a “low risk of absconding, low risk of harm to the public, have a suitable plan for managing identified risks, are unlikely to continue criminality while in custody, and are not likely to exploit the low security to disrupt the order of the open estate.”
Separate regulations already existed for the Temporary Presumptive Recategorisation Scheme, developed to accelerate the transfer of low-level offenders serving short sentences into open facilities due to overcrowding. This scheme permits eligible inmates to be moved to open prisons after just two weeks in a secure facility, and up to a year before their release. However, violent offenders serving individual sentences of four years or more, alongside sex offenders, terror offenders, and individuals recalled to prison or suspected of additional crimes, are excluded from this scheme.
The Ministry of Justice was unable to provide the number of inmates who would be impacted by the policy change, as all transfer decisions are made on a case-by-case basis. Sources indicated that while the policy was introduced during a surge of emergency measures to alleviate prison overcrowding, its primary objective was to ensure that serious offenders serving extended determinate sentences were “tested” in open facilities before full release. They acknowledged that it also allows suitable offenders to be moved efficiently to utilize all available prison space.
‘There’s a child involved in this’
Ms. Queiroz’s worries extend beyond her own safety. “There’s a child involved in this,” she told The i Paper. “It’s not solely about me. He attempted to murder my daughter and admitted in court that his intent was to kill her that day, alongside myself.”
“She’ll only be turning nine when the potential transfer occurs, as she was born on the day of the attempted murder… This person, whom I seek to protect her from, could be placed in an open prison.”
All prisoners admitted to open jails are considered for “release on temporary licence,” enabling them to leave prison for designated periods for work, family visits, education, or training, and other rehabilitative activities. Although access is limited for serious offenders on extended sentences like Raja’s, prisons can still authorize temporary release after consulting probation officials and the police.
A separate initiative to expedite the transfer of low-level offenders into open prisons was launched in March 2023 and has been expanded by the Labour government.
Open prisons ‘already suffering from culture change’
Tom Wheatley, president of the Prison Governors’ Association, warned that the evolving situation was “changing the culture” of these facilities and undermining their rehabilitative purpose. “For those on long sentences, earning a place in an open prison is a significant achievement, but now they’re surrounded by individuals who might not care as they’re only serving a few months,” he explained.
Open prisons are characterized by what the Ministry of Justice describes as “minimal security” and are designed to allow inmates to spend the majority of their day engaged in work, pursuing education outside the prison, or visiting family, all as preparation for eventual release. Staffing levels are lower than in secure facilities, and searches and security checks are less frequent, as these prisons are intended for inmates who have demonstrated prolonged good behavior.
After Raja was sentenced in 2016, Ms. Queiroz enrolled in a program that provides victims of serious crimes with key information about offenders but was informed she “wouldn’t have to worry about anything until he was eligible for parole.”
‘It’s too early… I’m really panicked’
She only became aware of the policy change through a “chance conversation” while delivering a talk at a prison to raise awareness about domestic abuse. “One of the inmates mentioned moving to an open prison, and I realized how long his sentence was, leading me to think, ‘That’s too soon,’” she recounted.
“I spoke with my victim liaison officer and expressed my concerns, stating, ‘Has the criteria changed? I’m genuinely quite anxious.’ She checked and confirmed that the criteria had indeed changed, informing me that my ex would be eligible for open prison starting March 2025. My heart just sank.”
Changes to open prisons policy
- March 2023: The Temporary Presumptive Recategorisation Scheme (TPRS) is initiated to facilitate the transfer of more low-level offenders into open prisons up to 12 weeks before their release to alleviate overcrowding in other facilities.
- March 2024: The requirement for serious offenders—specifically those serving extended determinate sentences to be within five years of automatic release to be considered for open conditions—is abolished.
- June 2024: The original TPRS rules are superseded by TPRS12, which enables low-level offenders to be transferred to open prisons up to one year before their release.
- November 2024: TPRS12 is expanded to include not only inmates with an “enhanced” rating for good behavior but also those on “standard” regimes.
The Victims’ Commissioner for England and Wales, Baroness Newlove, stated that victims often feel “left in the dark” due to inadequate communication. “When victims discover that an offender is set to be transferred to open conditions, it can understandably cause significant anxiety and distress,” she noted. “It is vital that news of such transfers is communicated clearly and sensitively, and if a policy change regarding transfer eligibility has occurred, victims must be informed to comprehend its implications.”
‘Victims will be retraumatized’
Claire Waxman, London’s Victims’ Commissioner, expressed concern that the policy change had been made “seemingly without consultation or notification.” She added, “I worry that there are victims who believe their offenders are years away from returning to the community, only to be retraumatized by suddenly learning they are moving to open conditions.”
“While this change was initiated under the previous government, it is crucial that victims are informed if it affects them. The current government should ensure that, as with certain prisoners released earlier in their sentences, it clearly communicates to all affected victims what this change entails.”
The Ministry of Justice affirmed that prison governors have the authority to prevent inmates from transferring to open prisons if serious concerns arise, and that thorough risk assessments are conducted to ensure that transfers will not jeopardize public safety. A spokesperson added, “Eligible offenders are subject to comprehensive risk evaluations before being considered for open prison, and any individual found to breach the rules can be swiftly returned to secure conditions.”
