Recent reports indicate that the United States may consider cutting off Ukraine’s access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system, a move that would pose significant challenges for Kyiv’s war efforts. Starlink has been instrumental in providing vital internet connectivity to Ukraine, especially in the context of ongoing military operations. Sources suggest that Washington’s negotiators have warned Ukraine that continued access to Starlink could be jeopardized unless Kyiv agrees to a deal related to critical mineral resources.
In a controversial proposal, officials from the Trump administration are advocating for Ukraine to supply rare earth minerals valued at $500 billion (£397 billion) in exchange for ongoing financial and military support. This contentious offer has raised eyebrows among Ukrainian officials and military strategists alike.
The discussions surrounding Starlink access were highlighted during talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, as confirmed by three sources who spoke to Reuters. These conversations intensified after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky turned down an initial proposition from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Following this, the matter was revisited during meetings between Keith Kellogg, the U.S. special envoy to Ukraine, and Zelensky.
According to one insider, Ukraine has been warned of an imminent shutdown of the Starlink service if a deal is not reached, emphasizing the system’s importance: “Ukraine runs on Starlink. They consider it their North Star.” The loss of Starlink would undoubtedly be a significant setback for Ukraine, as noted by experts.
Katja Bego, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, emphasized that Ukraine has likely developed contingency plans for alternative satellite systems, especially given earlier concerns about potential access restrictions by Musk. Countries like Sweden and Germany have reportedly provided alternative military communication systems to Ukraine. Bego stated, “It’s not that other systems can’t provide that, it will just not be as good as Starlink.” She added, “It would be very serious for Ukraine to lose access. A lot of their operations do rely on this system.”
Starlink’s fast-moving capabilities are especially critical for drone operations, which have become a major factor in inflicting casualties on Russian forces. Bego also raised concerns about how the U.S. could justify cutting Starlink access, considering that many terminals in Ukraine were financed by European partners like Poland. She remarked, “We really start to see that Silicon Valley tech fusion with the new White House administration in action here, leveraging their relationship.” This dynamic could pose challenges not only for Ukraine but for many European nations reliant on U.S. technology.
Moreover, the potential disruption of other space-based intelligence services from the U.S. to Ukraine could add another layer of complexity to the situation.
On Saturday, Zelensky described a “productive talk” with Sir Keir Starmer, during which the leaders coordinated their military cooperation and emphasized the necessity for Kyiv’s involvement in peace negotiations. Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme, noted that Starlink has been a “critical enabler” for Ukraine in its military engagements. He pointed out that the system’s importance was highlighted during instances when Musk had either restricted or turned off access, leaving Ukrainian troops vulnerable.
Musk had initially expedited the delivery of thousands of Starlink terminals to Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February 2022, aiming to restore communication channels disrupted by the conflict. However, his subsequent criticisms of Ukraine’s conduct of the war led to limitations on access.
The Ukrainian government has publicly denounced Musk for attempting to limit Starlink’s functionality for their forces operating near Russian-occupied territories. Giles remarked on the potential fallout of the U.S. cutting off Starlink access, stating, “If access to critical services like Starlink and intelligence support is turned off, it will have a major impact.” He cautioned that Ukraine’s operational frameworks may depend heavily on continued access to these systems.
Washington’s threat to sever Ukraine’s satellite communications is emblematic of a broader shift in U.S.-Ukrainian relations, with critics arguing that the U.S. is acting more like an adversary than a partner. The stakes are high, as Ukraine may soon find itself compelled to continue its fight with diminished support, navigating a landscape where both U.S. and Russian demands weigh heavily on its future.
Zelensky has suggested the possibility of offering the U.S. some access to Ukraine’s extensive mineral resources, particularly lithium. Reports indicate that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio attempted to persuade the President to approve an agreement granting Washington control over 50% of Ukraine’s lithium reserves and other valuable rare earth elements. The Biden administration has framed this $500 billion proposal as a form of “payback” for the military assistance previously extended to Ukraine.
