Scotland’s Rugby Dominance Over England: A New Era
Although the recent records may seem striking, Scotland’s rugby dominance over England has crept up quietly on many. For those residing north of Hadrian’s Wall, the transformation is a source of pride. From the days when Scotland consistently returned home empty-handed from Twickenham since 1983, they have now held the prestigious Calcutta Cup since 2021. Remarkably, Scotland has triumphed in the last four encounters, a feat not seen since the Victorian era, and claimed five victories along with a draw in the last seven meetings since 2018.
This shift in power has led to a significant decline in England’s performance in this fixture. However, following their narrow 26-25 victory over France at Twickenham two weeks ago, there is a mix of renewed optimism for England and potential vulnerabilities in the Scottish camp as they prepare for Saturday’s match. Predicting the outcome is challenging, but here’s what England must do to break the recent hoodoo:
Shackle Finn Russell
Finn Russell, the highly regarded Scotland fly-half and a likely candidate for this summer’s Lions team, faced a tough outing two weeks ago, suffering a head injury during an accidental clash with wing Darcy Graham. This incident contributed to Scotland’s 32-18 defeat against Ireland.
Although Russell has not trained fully since then, he remains available for selection, unlike his teammate Graham. It was Russell’s exceptional long pass to Huw Jones over England centre Jonathan Joseph that ignited Scotland’s resurgence and solidified his reputation for brilliance in tight situations. England’s Ollie Lawrence, Russell’s teammate at Bath, is familiar with his game, but knowing how to stop him is a different challenge altogether.
Russell is tied with Ireland’s Johnny Sexton for the most try assists against England in the Six Nations era, amassing four assists. His strategic kicking in 2022 even caused Luke Cowan-Dickie to knock the ball into touch, leading to a penalty try and a sin-bin for Cowan-Dickie, which created significant issues for England’s line-out. Notably, when Russell missed the 2020 match at Murrayfield due to disciplinary reasons, England emerged victorious with a score of 13-6.
Powerful Motivation
Scottish rugby has historically grappled with a lack of raw power, as evidenced by the performances of Glasgow Warriors, Edinburgh, and the national team. While they showcase some of the best offloading rugby globally, they often struggle against the relentless physicality of teams like South Africa, Ireland, and France.
Although the England pack may not match the size of these formidable teams, they have recently lost injured lock George Martin, replacing him with Bath flanker Ted Hill, who is not a traditional second-rower.
England’s Last Seven Meetings Against Scotland
- 2018: Scotland 25-13 England (Murrayfield)
- 2019: England 38-38 Scotland (Twickenham)
- 2020: Scotland 6-13 England (Murrayfield)
- 2021: England 6-11 Scotland (Twickenham)
- 2022: Scotland 20-17 England (Murrayfield)
- 2023: England 23-29 Scotland (Twickenham)
- 2024: Scotland 30-21 England (Murrayfield)
In training this week, England has emphasized the importance of physical dominance, reminding their pack of the embarrassing statistic that Scotland’s maul pushed them back an average of 7.1 meters in their last encounter. “We’ve reviewed our last two games against Scotland,” said England flanker Ben Earl. “They’re almost unrecognizable when we’ve been at our best over the past couple of years.” Earl also carries personal motivation from Scotland’s win at Twickenham, which taught him what it truly takes to excel as a top-class international rugby player.
Duhan van der Merwe Mayhem
Duhan van der Merwe, the South African-born wing, has been a significant threat to England, scoring six tries in four matches: one in 2021, none in 2022, two in 2023, and three in 2024. His most memorable moment came during the 2022 match at Twickenham, where he evaded five defenders, including No 8 Alex Dombrandt, in a stunning solo effort.
In 2021, he scored a try from a Russell cross-kick, showcasing his exceptional athleticism and skill. Last year, the excitement from the Scotland coaches echoed through the press benches as Van der Merwe embarked on a breathtaking 65-meter run, completing a hat-trick. Tommy Freeman, or whoever stands in his way for England, must be prepared to tackle the impressive 16st 10lbs, 6ft 4in powerhouse effectively. England needs to test Van der Merwe’s defensive turning circle as well.
Breakdown and Keeping Possession
Scotland’s 2018 victory was rooted in their ability to dominate the breakdown against an England team led by Eddie Jones. It began with home flanker Ryan Wilson intimidating George Ford in the tunnel before the match and continued throughout the game. In their most recent meeting in February 2024, England made a staggering 24 handling errors and was turned over 22 times, an unthinkable statistic for any team aspiring to victory.
As Earl noted this week, “When we attacked, we were passive. We played four passes when we could have played one, opting to pass instead of carry, which handed loose, turnover ball to Finn Russell, Duhan van der Merwe, and their strike runners.” England head coach Steve Borthwick has recognized the changes in personnel since last year, highlighting that key players like Joe Marler, Dan Cole, Ethan Roots, and Sam Underhill will not feature this Saturday. For Scotland, Jamie Ritchie has been brought in to replace flanker Matt Fagerson, potentially enhancing their line-out capabilities.
The Chess Match of Manipulation
Last year, England successfully penetrated Scotland’s defense with an early try from full-back George Furbank off a scrum, facilitated by clever dummy runs from Lawrence and Henry Slade, allowing Danny Care to advance on the shoulder of Earl before executing a sweeping left-to-right play. While Care is not available now, Alex Mitchell can replicate this style of play. Scotland, however, will miss their injured center, Sione Tuipulotu, a key player in their strategy.
With Marcus Smith continuing as full-back, Borthwick urges him to leverage his attacking prowess to inspire the team to play with bravery and aggression, even in the face of mistakes. “It suits our players’ strengths,” Borthwick stated. “We now have pace on the edges, along with distributors and ball-players.” Observers have noted signs of stress in Smith during critical situations against the French, highlighting the risk-reward nature of his play. Mike Brown, Smith’s former Harlequins teammate and current England full-back, remarked, “Marcus will make it work because he is that good. However, he does have areas for development as a full-back, including handling high balls, one-on-one tackling, back-field coverage, and other essential skills in international rugby.”
Scotland’s full-back Blair Kinghorn struggled against Ireland, impacted by injuries in the backline, but he will be eager to restore his credentials ahead of the Lions’ selection.
