Starmer’s Struggle: Balancing Peacekeeping Efforts and Domestic Dissent
As Sir Keir Starmer convenes a video conference with two dozen international leaders in a bid to establish a peacekeeping force for Ukraine on Saturday, his officials at No 10 are engaged in a parallel effort to negotiate a ceasefire with discontented Labour MPs. Despite holding a considerable majority of 158, Starmer has been navigating the undercurrents of unrest that have persisted since he assumed the role of Prime Minister in July. This turbulence was particularly evident when seven Labour MPs were suspended for backing an SNP amendment aimed at abolishing the two-child benefit cap.
Many newly elected MPs have shown a strong commitment to loyalty and to ensuring that the first Labour government in over a decade does not face undue turmoil. However, the rising concerns—extending even to the Cabinet level—over proposed cuts to disability benefits and an impending squeeze on spending in the Spring Statement set for March threaten to disrupt the delicate equilibrium between the Prime Minister, his Chancellor, and their parliamentary colleagues.
Starmer, alongside his Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall, is expected to announce significant reforms to the welfare system as soon as Tuesday, pending Cabinet approval. The aim is to achieve approximately £6 billion in savings from benefits payments. Yet, as details regarding the scope and scale of these cuts have begun to emerge from the Department for Work and Pensions, unease among ministers and MPs has grown. One Labour MP expressed, “This is not why I joined the Labour Party, put it that way,” reflecting the discontent surrounding the proposed benefit reductions.
- Another backbencher characterized the situation as a “battle for the soul of the Labour Party,” highlighting deepening concerns over the potential impact on vulnerable benefits claimants.
Backbencher Briefings: A Bid for Consensus
In an effort to rally MPs around the Government’s agenda, Downing Street has been conducting briefing sessions for backbenchers, emphasizing what Starmer describes as their “moral duty” to facilitate employment and reduce the burgeoning benefits bill. He warns that this bill could escalate to £70 billion in five years—surpassing the combined costs of the Home Office and prison systems. However, these meetings have often incited frustration rather than support, as MPs have sought clarity on critical policies that remain inadequately addressed. Some dismissed the briefings as mere “box-ticking exercises.”
Particular concern has emerged regarding proposals that personal independence payments (PIP), which assist individuals with disabilities in covering additional living costs even while employed, might be frozen rather than adjusted in accordance with inflation. Additionally, MPs are actively pushing for concessions that would exempt those with severe disabilities from job-seeking requirements to continue receiving universal credit payments. Others are advocating for a “security guarantee” to ensure that claimants do not lose all benefits if they venture into employment, only to subsequently drop out.
The Economic Downturn: Justifying the Cuts
Both Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have maintained a firm stance on the necessity of overhauling the welfare system. Reeves, speaking on Friday, referenced dismal economic indicators as justification for reform, emphasizing the need to reintegrate individuals into the workforce to stimulate growth. Recent official figures reveal that the UK economy contracted by 0.1 percent in January, following an unexpected 0.4 percent increase the previous month. Reeves asserted that the Government is “determined to turn around the economy” and must “get a grip” on welfare expenditures.
Supporting her claims, statistics released on Thursday showed that 1.8 million individuals are receiving the highest level of incapacity benefits without being mandated to prepare for work—this cohort includes 160,000 young people aged between 16 and 24. Additionally, mental health issues are reported by two-thirds of the 2.5 million people claiming universal credit health benefits, a number that has surged by 500,000 in the past year and is more than five times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
As Rachel Reeves grapples with the imperative to implement cuts or raise taxes to adhere to her fiscal guidelines, which prohibit funding day-to-day expenditures through borrowing, her £9.9 billion reserve buffer is anticipated to be depleted. She faces an estimated £11.5 billion shortfall in her budget, according to some economists.
The Devil is in the Detail
“I entered No 10 for the meeting, fully supportive of the need to get people back into meaningful employment,” shared one new MP with The i Paper. “But the devil is in the detail.” The complexity arises particularly around PIP, which allows people with disabilities to maintain a degree of independence and live fulfilling lives, rather than merely focusing on employment.
When asked how officials responded to the assertion that PIP is not primarily about work, the MP recounted, “They simply nodded.” The ambiguity surrounding concrete proposals from Downing Street has only exacerbated the tension. An announcement that was anticipated for the previous Wednesday was postponed as the Government rolled out a series of planning and public sector reforms. “The risk we face, combined with the lack of clarity on the specific proposals, creates a vacuum that breeds fear and leads everyone to default to worst-case scenarios,” one backbencher remarked. “I’m receiving emails from councillors and constituents with disabled children; we have MPs with disabled children who are emotionally affected, and people are genuinely worried.”
Another MP concurred, stating, “The mishandling of this issue has left my constituents feeling very anxious. We know that those reliant on benefits already struggle, as their basic expenses exceed their income.”
Growing Discontent: Strong-Arm Tactics from the Whips
Discontent is also on the rise regarding the tactics employed by government whips to coerce any MPs contemplating dissent. An aide to one Labour MP reported that whips had been warning offices that when welfare reforms come to a vote in Parliament, there would be “threats of sackings for everyone,” which could include withdrawing support for select committees and stripping trade envoy roles. “Essentially, they aim to make life as difficult as possible for those who defy the party line,” the source revealed.
Until now, MPs noted that new members had been particularly cautious about deviating from party expectations, likening the atmosphere to “something from North Korea.” However, there are indications that backbenchers are starting to assert their voices more strongly. The proposed cuts to the welfare budget represent just one facet of a broader strategy of public sector spending reductions that Reeves will be compelled to unveil in her Spring Statement in ten days, ahead of the spending review scheduled for June.
A Labour source expressed confidence that the “line will hold” in terms of support for the Government but cautioned that this could change swiftly if the unpopular decisions being enforced do not yield the improvements promised to voters during the election. “As we approach the election, there’s a chance that this line could break.”
