Europe Awakens: A Response to Trump’s Provocations
BRUSSELS – Europe has often been perceived as a region of complacency, but the actions and rhetoric from former President Donald Trump have ignited a significant response. Long dependent on the United States for military security, European nations are now urgently reassessing their defense strategies. With Trump’s overtures to Russia, his undermining of NATO alliances, and the looming threat of trade conflicts, European countries are compelled to bolster their own defense capabilities.
While it remains uncertain whether Europe can successfully establish its own robust defense mechanisms, one thing is clear: the continent is on a path to substantially increase its military spending. Many nations have begun to unveil plans to elevate their defense budgets, with several, including the UK, aiming to raise spending from the previously agreed target of 2 percent of GDP to 3 percent or higher.
The European Union, which had historically been hesitant to engage in military matters, is now actively exploring avenues to enhance defense funding. Last week, Ursula von der Leyen announced an ambitious €800 billion (£670 billion) initiative aimed at modernizing defense capabilities, while Germany’s incoming Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, proposed a staggering €500 billion rearmament budget.
Furthermore, traditional EU institutional barriers are beginning to crumble, as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s concept of a “coalition of the willing” seeks to unite the broader European community in defense initiatives.
Strategic Spending: Europe’s Defense Budget Decisions
The question arises: how will Europe determine the allocation of its defense budgets? The answer is comprehensive, covering a wide array of needs, but with an emphasis on coordinated efforts.
The European Commission is set to unveil a long-anticipated White Paper on defense in the coming week. This document will advocate for significant investment to deter Russian aggression and support Ukraine amidst the backdrop of a more withdrawn United States. It is expected to encourage the production of weapons within the EU and from like-minded third-party companies, promoting joint procurement of arms, financing collaborative defense projects, and focusing on critical areas where the bloc currently faces capability gaps, such as air defense and military logistics.
A Collaborative Approach to Arms Procurement
While individual national governments will still make decisions on specific purchases, a coordinated EU procurement strategy – similar to the successful joint acquisition of Covid-19 vaccines during the pandemic – could address challenges stemming from Europe’s fragmented defense market, which often results in inflated prices for overlapping products.
“It’s not merely about increasing spending; it’s about spending wisely, collectively, and with a European focus,” stated Andrius Kubilius, the EU’s first-ever Defense Commissioner. “We must prioritize joint procurement, integrate civil and military research and development, and leverage advanced technologies while focusing on essential defense capabilities and military mobility.”
During a recent emergency summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky engaged with EU leaders to discuss pressing security concerns, underscoring the urgency of enhancing European defense.
Shifting Away from American Defense
According to EU data, from June 2022 to June 2023, a staggering 78 percent of member state procurement was directed toward non-EU suppliers, with 63 percent of that figure attributed to American providers. As faith in US reliability wanes, a growing sentiment is emerging among European nations to sever ties with American defense contracts. For instance, Portugal recently scrapped plans to acquire the F-35, the world’s most advanced fighter jet, opting instead to source European alternatives for its F-16 replacements, with Sweden likely to follow suit.
“US weapons have become increasingly problematic as Europeans prepare to invest hundreds of billions into their own arms procurement,” observed Janis Kluge from the SWP, a Berlin-based research institute.
Opportunities for European Defense Manufacturers
This shift away from American defense systems is further fueled by political dynamics, including the support from influential US figures, such as Vice President JD Vance and tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, for far-right political factions across Europe. Practical considerations also play a role in this pivot.
“Investing in American military equipment poses significant risks to European security due to potential political interference. This concern extends to any global entity relying on top-tier US military hardware,” cautioned Guntram Wolff from Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank.
The anticipated shift in defense spending could herald a boom for Europe’s defense industry, provided that manufacturers can scale up their operations effectively.
New Developments in Defense Technology
Prominent European defense companies, such as Germany’s Rheinmetall, France’s Dassault and Thales, Italy’s Leonardo, and Sweden’s Saab, are poised to benefit from this trend. New orders for land vehicles, ammunition, and munitions are emerging from British firm BAE Systems and Finnish-Norwegian state-owned Nammo, as well as explosives suppliers like the UK’s Chemring and France’s Eurenco.
When it comes to air defense and missile systems, a transition from the US-made Patriot system to the SAMP-T missiles, produced by Eurosam (a joint venture between pan-European missile manufacturer MBDA and Thales), is anticipated.
In the realm of surveillance and reconnaissance, should Musk’s Starlink services become unavailable, Eutelsat, the French satellite operator and owner of OneWeb, may step in to provide essential satellite connectivity in Ukraine.
This push for enhanced military capabilities is also making use of previously underutilized industrial sites. For example, in February, Franco-German firm KNDS took over a plant in Saxony, previously owned by Alstom, to produce Leopard 2 tanks and Boxer armored vehicles.
The surge in European defense stocks has been notable, with Rheinmetall surpassing even high-profile luxury brands such as LVMH. However, experts from Bloomberg Intelligence project that it may take over a decade for European NATO members to significantly strengthen their defense sectors.
Despite the time required, the restructuring is underway and is set to fundamentally transform Europe’s military-industrial landscape.
