For the past decade, successive leaders of the Conservative Party have faced a common adversary: a politician named Nigel Farage, who has consistently outmaneuvered them on the right. David Cameron’s decision to promise a referendum on the EU was significantly influenced by pressure from his own MPs, who were anxious about the potential impact of Farage’s UK Independence Party (Ukip) on their electoral prospects. As Prime Minister, Theresa May found her party languishing in fifth place during European elections, as they lost ground to Farage’s Brexit Party, a situation that ultimately contributed to her political downfall.
In 2019, Boris Johnson narrowly avoided a similar showdown when Farage abandoned plans to field candidates against the Conservatives, following Johnson’s apparent shift in position regarding Brexit. However, just last year, Rishi Sunak learned the hard way what happens in the absence of a political alliance, leading to a historic defeat for the Conservatives as Farage’s Reform Party captured a significant number of votes.
Tory Schadenfreude
This week, a sense of schadenfreude has emerged among Tory MPs in Westminster, as Farage now finds himself contending with his own right-wing challenger, Rupert Lowe, who has begun to outflank him on issues such as immigration. Reform UK has recently been embroiled in internal strife, with negative briefings and infighting surfacing following a statement last Friday, announcing that the whip had been withdrawn from Lowe and that he had been referred to the police due to allegations of threatening behavior.
Lowe, for his part, vehemently denies these allegations, perceiving them as part of a witch hunt against him. A police investigation is currently underway. While Lowe has suggested a dinner meeting with Farage to resolve their differences, the Reform Party leader appears less enthusiastic, recently stating that there is “no way back” for his former colleague. The tension stems in part from comments Lowe has made since the withdrawal of the whip, where he accused the Reform Party of attempting to moderate his views on deportations and suppress his criticisms of Pakistani grooming gangs. A shadow minister has remarked, “Given what Farage has said in the past, it’s a delicious irony that he is now experiencing a taste of his own medicine.”
Some supporters of Lowe have argued that Farage’s ego has grown excessively large, leading to claims of “tall poppy syndrome” among Farage loyalists.
Life After Farage
While Lowe may not be Farage’s preferred successor, the latter must eventually brace himself for life beyond his leadership—nurturing emerging talent and potential successors is crucial. Otherwise, the party risks stagnating when Farage steps away. A more profound concern emerges: what does the Reform Party stand for, and what should its future direction be? Is this current internal conflict merely a temporary setback for an insurgent party with ambitions of reaching No 10, or does it reveal deeper issues within Farage and his inner circle?
This situation could lead to a fragmentation of Reform’s grassroots support and place pressure on Farage to shift his party further to the right. It opens up a discussion that has been simmering behind the scenes regarding how radical an insurgent party can afford to be if it genuinely aspires to attain power. Despite the drama of the past week, Farage’s loyalists retain some optimism; the party’s standing in the polls has remained stable, or even slightly improved.
The X Factor
Additionally, a recent survey provided some comfort for Reform strategists. A JL Partners poll revealed that when presented with a photo of Lowe, an astonishing 86% of the public could not identify him. Even among Reform voters, 71% failed to recognize him. While it cannot be denied that Lowe has cultivated a dedicated following at Reform events and online, he is still not a household name. The hope among Farage’s team is that he remains obscure.
Supporters of Farage argue that social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) do not accurately represent the broader public sentiment. Back in 2015, Cameron made a similar assertion: “Britain and Twitter are not the same thing.” However, since tech billionaire Elon Musk—an ally of Donald Trump—acquired the platform, it has experienced a noticeable shift to the right.
This development raises concerns for Farage that the ongoing discord might undermine the momentum behind Reform. If it begins to appear that Farage is moving toward a more “mainstream” approach in pursuit of votes, he risks leaving the door open for a new insurgent party to emerge further to his right.
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Veteran figures from the old Ukip party have already voiced concerns that Reform’s professionalization has gone too far, resulting in the party losing its edge. “Privately, many of us have noticed the membership counter at Reform is not as prominently displayed as it once was,” remarked one Tory MP. From the perspective of Reform HQ, no voter can be taken for granted. “We aren’t relying on any voters,” stated a Reform source. Yet, they also have no intentions of retreating or hastily announcing policies to appease the base: “You can’t deport anyone unless you win,” added the Reform representative.
The overarching message is that the party needs to secure 35% of the vote to achieve success in a general election—without that threshold, they are merely proposing radical policies without the means to implement them. This sentiment encapsulates a defining challenge for Farage as he navigates the political landscape leading up to the next election: finding a path to genuine power without fracturing his party’s base.
