Russia’s Stance on Peace Talks with Ukraine
As tensions persist in Eastern Europe, Russia is expected to impose deliberately impossible conditions on Ukraine in an effort to stall peace negotiations and further its territorial ambitions. Experts have shared these insights with The i Paper. This prediction comes on the heels of a meeting between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Vladimir Putin, where they discussed a proposed 30-day ceasefire. Following Ukraine’s acceptance of a temporary truce earlier this week, the Kremlin expressed cautious optimism about the ceasefire. However, early signals from Moscow indicate a reluctance to finalize any agreement in the near future.
President Putin has voiced support for the concept of a ceasefire in Ukraine, yet he has raised several “questions” regarding its structure and has set forth a series of difficult conditions for peace. In a news conference alongside Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, Putin questioned, “Who will give orders to cease hostilities, and what value will those orders hold?” He also pondered who would mediate in the event of a “violation of the potential ceasefire agreement.” His comments suggest that both parties must carefully consider these issues.
Analysts interpret this rhetoric as part of a broader Kremlin strategy aimed at prolonging negotiations while continuing military advances. Despite ongoing discussions, Russian forces have made significant gains, including the capture of the town of Sudzha in Kursk and further progress in eastern Ukraine. Alexander Lord, a defense analyst at Sibylline, noted, “The ball is in Russia’s court, but the current battlefield conditions suggest a ceasefire does not align with Russia’s immediate interests.” He added that Moscow may conflate a temporary ceasefire with broader negotiations to delay while seeking to gain the upper hand. “Russia may present impossible demands to buy more time and make additional advances,” he warned.
Potential Challenges to a Ceasefire
Even if Moscow agrees to a ceasefire, analysts believe Russia has various strategies to undermine it. Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general at the defense think-tank RUSI, stated that Russia is likely to seek specific “clarifications and conditions” that would be unacceptable to Ukraine. For instance, Russia might demand that no NATO or European forces be present on Ukrainian soil during the ceasefire and insist on Ukraine’s demilitarization. “The US may acquiesce to some of these demands,” he cautioned.
Another potential tactic is for Russia to utilize the ceasefire period to stockpile weapons from allies such as Iran, thereby gaining a strategic advantage when hostilities resume. “If the US agrees to reduce military support for Ukraine while Russia re-equips, the ceasefire could ultimately serve Moscow’s interests,” Lord warned. Furthermore, Russia could agree to the ceasefire only to later fabricate a violation, possibly staging a false flag attack as a pretext for resuming conflict. Giles remarked, “Even if the Kremlin consents, the likelihood of the ceasefire holding is slim. Russia has numerous opportunities to stage incidents, blame Ukraine, and reignite the war.” This scenario could enable Moscow to solidify control over its desired four regions and potentially expand its territorial claims.
Amid these developments, Moscow has ramped up its propaganda efforts, portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the primary obstacle to peace. “Russia does not want Zelensky to remain in power, and it will strive to undermine his position,” explained Olena Borodyna, a Senior Geopolitical Risks Advisor at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI). One of the key strategies involves amplifying calls for Zelensky’s resignation and advocating for elections. “There is no pro-Russian political force capable of winning an election in Ukraine, so Moscow will seek to exploit political divisions, weaken Zelensky’s government, and attack the presidency,” Borodyna added.
Additionally, Russia could leverage a ceasefire to reinforce its control over occupied territories, integrating their resources into its economy. “Russia’s critical minerals strategy, released in 2024, indicates its intention to absorb resources from these regions into its supply chain,” Borodyna noted. “Under the cover of a ceasefire, Moscow could expedite the extraction and export of minerals from the four seized regions while using elections that exclude these areas to further entrench their separation from Ukraine.”
Current Agreements by Ukraine
As discussions progress, Ukraine has agreed to an “immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire that may be extended.” A joint statement from the US and Ukraine confirmed the resumption of intelligence sharing and security assistance to Ukraine. However, notably absent from this agreement are “security guarantees,” which would provide a commitment of Western protection should Russia violate the ceasefire.
Russia’s Reactions and Future Demands
While US President Donald Trump has dismissed the idea of Ukraine’s NATO membership, the proposed ceasefire deal does not address freezing hostilities along current frontlines or making territorial concessions, despite Trump’s previous suggestions that Kyiv may need to give up land. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who led the negotiations, stated that the ball is “now in Russia’s court.” However, Moscow quickly dismissed the agreement, with Ushakov stating, “It offers us nothing. It merely provides Ukrainians with an opportunity to regroup, gain strength, and continue their actions.”
Experts believe this reaction is predictable. They argue that Russia will use previous US concessions regarding NATO and territorial cessions as leverage to push for further demands. “Ukraine is being coerced into a ceasefire by the US. Russia can exploit this situation to impose additional conditions before agreeing to any truce,” remarked Keir Giles, a Russia expert with Chatham House. “Russia has been handed a chance to request more, and it will seize that opportunity.”
Moscow has asserted that its war objectives remain largely unchanged: securing full control over Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia—four regions it has partially annexed. While Trump has floated the idea of freezing the conflict along current frontlines, experts believe Putin may insist that Ukraine withdraw from these territories entirely. “Russia has repeatedly stated that it will not accept a ceasefire unless Ukraine withdraws from all annexed territories,” Lord explained. “Additionally, they may demand control over key urban centers like Zaporizhzhia and Sloviansk, which would take significant time to capture if Western military support for Ukraine continues.” Despite the US’s commitment to resume intelligence sharing, Russia may push for an end to all Western aid, significantly hampering Ukraine’s future defense capabilities.
Meanwhile, Trump has ruled out imposing new sanctions against Russia, stating, “I can implement measures that would severely impact Russia financially, but I prefer to pursue peace.” Giles commented that this could embolden the Kremlin to pursue even more aggressive demands. “Russia may seek the lifting of Western sanctions and the unfreezing of Russian assets,” he warned.
