The Challenges Facing Canada in the Era of Trump
The late comedian Robin Williams once quipped that Canadians were the kindest people on earth, but they found themselves living in a lovely apartment above a raucous meth lab. This joke feels more relevant than ever as Canada, known for its politeness, grapples with a potentially existential crisis following Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States, demanding that Canada submit to becoming the 51st state.
“I know these are dark days—brought on by a country we can no longer trust,” remarked Mark Carney, former Bank of England governor, after securing victory in the Liberal Party leadership contest, positioning him to become Canada’s 24th prime minister. Carney, alongside his wife Diana Fox, faces a daunting challenge in defending Canada’s interests against both Trump and the burgeoning populist Conservative Party of Canada, which had been gaining traction in the polls after a decade under Justin Trudeau’s leadership.
In a stark victory speech, Carney warned, “The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country. If they succeed, they will destroy our way of life.” Many Canadians share a deep sense of unease following Trump’s resurgence, with nearly two-thirds expressing fear for the future as the U.S. president makes frequent references to Canada as “the 51st state.”
Growing Concerns About National Security
Stephen Maher, a columnist and biographer of Trudeau, reflects on the nation’s anxiety: “We are badly rattled. People are quietly discussing the need for conscription. In political circles, there is talk of whether Canada should consider becoming a nuclear-armed state. At the grassroots level, discussions are emerging about what would happen in the event of a U.S. invasion.”
Such sentiments may seem outlandish, given that the two countries share the longest land border in the world and are both prosperous democracies. Yet, Trump’s behavior, characterized by a disregard for democratic norms in his second term, raises troubling questions about the future. His administration has already imposed significant tariffs on Canadian goods, prompting Trudeau to warn that Trump is aiming for “a total collapse of the Canadian economy, as it would make annexation easier.”
Trump’s comments before taking office about utilizing “economic force” to achieve his imperialistic goals only heighten the tension. He has been known to belittle Trudeau by referring to him as “Governor Trudeau,” while also eyeing Canada’s abundant natural resources, including oil, gas, timber, diamonds, and potash.
- Reportedly, Trump expressed a desire to reassess the border based on claims that the 1908 demarcation treaty is invalid.
- He has suggested revisiting the management of the Great Lakes.
- Discussions among his aides have included Canada’s exclusion from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance.
Historical Parallels and Modern Threats
As demonstrated by Trump’s harsh treatment of Ukraine, the potential for conflict between the two nations is real. Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto, observes, “The ground has shifted beneath the feet of Canadians. Of course it sounds crazy—but so did Putin’s attack on Ukraine.”
Stein argues that the current situation can be understood through the lens of 19th-century imperialism: “The conversations are mercantilist and resource-focused.” She emphasizes the necessity for Canadian officials to prepare for worst-case scenarios, noting, “It is the subtle provocations that could place our government in a precarious situation.”
One journalist shared how he became acutely aware of the seriousness of this threat in discussions with a Washington official, who expressed concerns that Trump might stage a Donbas-style incident in Alberta, a province rich in oil and known for its conservative leanings. “He sounded scared,” the journalist recounted.
The Unpredictability of Trump’s Leadership
Given the current climate, it’s no surprise that Canadians are anxious. “There’s no way that we as Canadians would ever submit to Trump,” asserts Anastasia Cywink, a special education teacher. “But I worry for my grandchildren—it’s so unpredictable with Trump wielding so much power.”
Avery Jones, a sales manager, echoed this sentiment: “The problem is we know he is an unpredictable maniac. The commentary about the 51st state is not in jest. There is malicious intent behind it.”
The level of concern has even led to academic inquiries into how Canada might withstand a military assault from the U.S. Aisha Ahmad, a security expert, wrote in a widely circulated paper, “Trump is delusional if he believes that 40 million Canadians will passively accept conquest. A military invasion of Canada would incite a decades-long violent resistance, ultimately leading to the destruction of the United States.”
Ahmad notes that this combative approach may shock many Canadians, but their self-image of “niceness” only exists due to peace. “War changes people rapidly—and Canadians are no more innately peaceful than any other human beings.”
Adding to the complexity of this situation is the fact that Canada’s head of state is King Charles III, who recently signaled his support for Canada by meeting with Trudeau and donning Canadian military decorations during a naval event.
The Political Landscape and Carney’s Leadership
A recent poll by the Angus Reid Institute indicated that a slim majority of Canadians were reconsidering their constitutional monarchy in light of these developments. “If he gets this wrong, it could spell the end of the monarchy in Canada,” warned one analyst.
Amid this challenging backdrop, Carney—an Oxford-trained economist and Everton fan—has finally achieved his ambition of becoming Canadian prime minister, albeit as a figure often associated with elitism in an era of populism. However, Trump’s unpredictable behavior has allowed Carney’s party, which was trailing by 24 points against the Conservatives at the end of last year, to nearly close the gap following the recent escalation of threats from the White House.
Under Trudeau, the Liberals appeared to be faltering, with declining real incomes, escalating living costs, soaring housing prices, increased immigration, and a strained healthcare system. A significant two-thirds of voters felt it was time for a change, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s assertion that “Canada is broken” resonating with many.
Rallying Against American Aggression
Yet, Poilievre, who rose to prominence by leading protests against vaccine mandates and echoing Trump’s critiques of “woke” policies, now finds himself on the defensive, accused of being too close to the enemy.
This surge in patriotism has led Poilievre to hastily rebrand his campaign as “Canada First,” questioning Carney’s commitment to the nation amid controversies surrounding his role in relocating a Canadian investment company’s headquarters to New York.
While many Canadians may not know much about Carney, they seem to be warming to him, as he has transformed a 21-point deficit in party leader satisfaction ratings into a 16-point lead. “People seem to like what they see,” notes Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research Group.
However, Canadian politics has a history of swift changes, as evidenced by Kim Campbell, the first female prime minister, who briefly revived her party only to face a devastating loss shortly thereafter. Current data indicates that Carney is nearly neck-and-neck with Poilievre, reflecting the volatility that characterizes Western politics today.
Carney aims to win voter support through his calm demeanor and experience in navigating challenging situations. “Everything in my life has prepared me for this moment,” he stated after winning the leadership. Yet, he is not a natural campaigner and will face scrutiny in debates against Poilievre, who has served as an MP for over two decades.
Preparing for the Future
At the heart of Canada’s predicament lies a pressing question: how to defend against Trump as he potentially escalates into a trade war with tariffs that could cost 600,000 jobs. Canadians have responded with defiance—booing the U.S. national anthem at sporting events, removing Tennessee whiskey and Californian wine from shelves, canceling vacations in Florida, and boycotting American fast-food chains.
Leading this charge is Doug Ford, the populist premier of Ontario, who has eliminated all American brands from the Liquor Control Board of Ontario and imposed a 25 percent surcharge on electricity exported to 1.5 million U.S. households. “I feel terrible for the American people, because it’s not them who started this trade war. It’s one person who is responsible—President Trump,” Ford stated. “He’s coming after his closest friends and allies, and it’s going to devastate both economies.”
Doug Saunders, a columnist for The Globe and Mail and a seasoned foreign correspondent, highlights the ease with which international tensions can escalate: “It may sound absurd, but yes, I worry there could be some kind of U.S. military attack on Canada. I’ve witnessed how minor events can trigger violence, and how an angry or authoritarian leader can tip the scales.”
The Path Forward for Canada
Despite the gravity of the situation, Saunders notes that this moment has fostered an unprecedented sense of unity among Canadians, with many lamenting that it took Trump’s hostility for the country to recognize its vulnerabilities and band together. Ironically, should Canada ever join the United States, its liberal values could significantly shift the balance of power away from Trump’s Republicans.
However, Canada faces significant geographical challenges, including an ice cap to the north, oceans on both sides, and an aggressive superpower to the south, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of its trade. For decades, Canada has underinvested in defense, as its only significant military threat was presumed to come from Russia over the Arctic—an assumption that relied on the expectation of swift U.S. retaliation.
As Carney prepares for the upcoming election, he must contend with not only Poilievre but also the looming threat posed by Trump, who is likely to adopt a more hostile stance in response to Canada’s defiance. Ultimately, Carney faces a formidable challenge in preserving Canada’s brand of polite liberalism, as the jokes about their unruly neighbor become less humorous and more concerning.
