Migration Debate Takes Center Stage Amid Economic Concerns
The ongoing skirmish between the Conservatives and Reform UK regarding migration has generated considerable attention this week. Nevertheless, new research indicates that a significant portion of swing voters is more preoccupied with their economic stability than with the political theatrics unfolding in Westminster.
On Monday, Richard Tice, the deputy leader of Reform UK, proposed a controversial “one in, one out” policy for immigration. The following day, Chris Philp, the shadow Home Secretary for the Tories, took to the streets to emphasize that 2025 has already become the worst year on record for small boat crossings in the English Channel.
As part of amendments to the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill currently progressing through the House of Commons, Philp suggested that migrants would need to earn at least £38,700 annually to gain permission to live and work in the UK, aiming to ensure they are “self-sufficient and do not rely on the state.” The Government has commissioned a review of this policy, with findings expected in June.
Last month, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper asserted that nearly 19,000 foreign criminals and individuals without the right to remain in the UK have been deported since Labour took office last summer. However, a more fundamental question for all three political parties is whether immigration remains the potent ballot box issue that some strategists believe it to be.
As they prepare for local elections in May, both the Conservatives and Reform UK have recognized a strong voter inclination to adopt a hardline stance on immigration. In contrast, this week, Keir Starmer’s Labour Government is primarily focusing on welfare cuts and advocating for planning reforms aimed at increasing housing availability—both of which address core economic issues.
So, which party is making the right call in terms of strategic messaging this week? The answer largely hinges on which segment of the electorate is paying attention to this Westminster drama. Are voters captivated by the spectacle of a crocodile battling a policeman, or are they rummaging through their pockets, searching for spare change for an ice cream?
Voter Concerns Shift Towards Economic Stability
“Voters have increasingly prioritized immigration in recent years, now ranking it as the second most important issue after the economy,” stated Scarlett Maguire, director at JL Partners, in an interview with The i Paper. “For both Conservative and Reform voters, immigration is now the top concern, which explains the focus from both parties. This is particularly advantageous for Reform UK as their supporters feel strongly about the issue, and there is potential to attract disenchanted Conservatives, especially among those who believe that Reform leader Nigel Farage would make a more effective Prime Minister than Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.”
“The Conservatives find themselves in a precarious position. Many of their voters from 2019 abandoned them in 2024, citing dissatisfaction with the party’s handling of immigration as their primary concern. Rebuilding this trust will be a challenging task,” she added.
Despite internal debates within Reform UK regarding Farage’s electability, migration remains central to their political strategy. On Tuesday, Farage criticized Philp, asserting, “The latest announcement from the Conservatives reeks of shameless posturing from a party responsible for one of the most significant policy failures in modern British history. The need to deport so many foreign criminals arises directly from the Tories’ failure to govern effectively.”
While the Conservatives and Reform UK engage in this megaphone battle over migration, Labour MPs are contemplating their involvement in the fray. However, recent research suggests that their engagement may not be necessary. The Nuffield Politics Research Centre, in collaboration with the Joseph Rowntree Foundation think-tank, has discovered that “economically insecure” mid-lifers are the new swing voters driving recent shifts in voter sentiment and the decline of Labour’s support since the last general election. Winning them back is crucial for Labour MPs to retain their seats.
According to their comprehensive survey of 8,000 voters, feelings of economic insecurity are most pronounced among individuals aged 35 to 59, significantly lower among both older adults and younger citizens. Approximately 41% of mid-lifers report feeling economically insecure, compared to 28% of those aged 18 to 34 and 31% among those over 60.
- This peak in mid-life economic insecurity is attributed to various factors, including:
- Childcare responsibilities
- Mortgage repayments
- Low savings
- Unsecured debts
- Lack of disposable income for emergencies
In total, the survey indicates that around 18.5 million adults experience economic insecurity—this figure exceeds the number of individuals living in poverty and represents roughly 35% of the eligible British voting population. Approximately 8.9 million of these individuals belong to the mid-life demographic.
Professor Jane Green, who led the research, emphasized that the “economic factors driving the volatility in British politics have often been underestimated as parties focus more on immigration.” She stated, “Immigration is significant largely because politicians have made it so. The political framing of immigration is a choice—it doesn’t have to be the focal issue.”
It’s no surprise that Cabinet members devoted considerable time to economic discussions during their Tuesday morning meeting. Both Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves underscored their priorities. According to No 10’s official summary, Reeves reminded colleagues of “the consequences experienced by the country when the previous Government lost control of public finances and the impact that had on working individuals, particularly regarding mortgage costs.”
Labour MPs concerned about the rise of Reform UK in their constituencies may be overlooking a larger narrative. Instead, they should allow the Conservatives and Reform to engage in their public dispute over immigration while they redirect their focus to economic issues. For Labour to regain voter support and see an uptick in poll numbers, the message must resonate with concerns about the economy. Other political parties would also do well to take note of this trend.
