The Intriguing Battle for Champions League Spots in the Premier League
Aston Villa is positioning themselves favorably, while one of either Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur could very well defy their current domestic form to secure a place in next season’s Champions League. This scenario, while ambitious, is not entirely out of reach.
As Liverpool sails toward the title and the newly-promoted teams of Southampton, Ipswich Town, and Leicester City seem destined for relegation, the race for Champions League qualification has become the most captivating subplot of the Premier League this season. Below Liverpool, who sit comfortably at the top, and second-placed Arsenal, an exhilarating contest unfolds among eight teams, all jostling for position within a mere nine points of each other.
Typically, such a situation would imply that only two Champions League spots remain, but this season, the stakes are potentially higher with three spots up for grabs.
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As it stands, the Premier League is on track to secure a fifth Champions League spot, creating a cushion for the soaring Nottingham Forest and providing a potential safety net for Chelsea and Manchester City, currently occupying fourth and fifth places respectively. This shift also breathes hope into the chasing teams.
Aston Villa’s domestic form has had its ups and downs, even though they have shown promise in the Champions League. They find themselves in a tightly contested group between sixth and tenth place, with Brighton and Newcastle just above them, and Bournemouth and Fulham below, all separated by a mere five points.
All eyes are on Manchester City, as Newcastle sits level on points with them, making it likely that the battle for Champions League qualification could extend to the final day of the season. Moreover, there’s speculation that the Premier League could even see six teams in the Champions League next season, which brings United and Spurs into the conversation.
How Uefa’s Allocation for Extra Champions League Places Works
The introduction of the Champions League’s new 36-team format has led UEFA to offer an additional spot to the two leagues that perform best in their European competitions. This is determined through a coefficient table that ranks how each nation fares in Europe.
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Every match result in the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League contributes to a league’s overall coefficient score—two points for a win, one for a draw, and none for a loss. Additional bonus points are awarded based on where each team finishes in the league phase of their respective competitions.
The total points score is then divided by the number of teams from a league participating in European competitions, establishing the rank in the coefficient table.
What Does This Mean for the Premier League?
For instance, the Premier League boasts seven teams competing in Europe this season: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, and Manchester City in the Champions League, while Manchester United, Tottenham, and Chelsea are in the Europa League and Conference League respectively. Strong performances by English teams in the league phases have provided England with 62.25 bonus points, and now, with Manchester City eliminated, the remaining six teams can continue to bolster England’s coefficient average.
Uefa’s Coefficient Table
(Brackets indicate how many teams remain in European competition)
- 1. England: 22.178 – (6/7)
- 2. Spain: 19.892 – (6/7)
- 3. Italy: 18.937 – (4/8)
- 4. Germany: 16.671 – (4/8)
- 5. Portugal: 16.250 – (2/5)
- 6. France: 15.285 – (3/7)
- 7. Belgium: 15.250 – (3/5)
- 8. Netherlands: 15.083 – (4/6)
- 9. Greece: 12.187 – (2/4)
- 10. Norway: 10.812 – (2/4)
How the Premier League Can Secure a Fifth Champions League Spot
In essence, the Premier League teams still active in Europe must continue their successful runs. The margin between England and Italy, currently in third place, is reinforced by the fact that England has six clubs remaining in competition compared to Italy’s four.
All three teams—Arsenal, Liverpool, and Villa—secured victories in their initial Champions League knockout rounds, and should they progress, it would further solidify England’s dominance.
However, if Liverpool and Villa both advance, they will face off in the quarter-finals, which would eliminate at least one English side from contention. On the brighter side, this scenario guarantees at least one English team in the semi-finals, potentially adding more points to the coefficient table.
In the Europa League, Manchester United and Tottenham cannot meet until the final; however, both face challenges in their return legs this week. United managed a 1-1 draw against Real Sociedad, while Spurs suffered a 1-0 defeat to AZ Alkmaar.
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Meanwhile, Chelsea appears to be the clear favorite in the Conference League, heading into their return leg against Copenhagen with a 2-1 lead, setting them on a path to the quarter-finals.
In contrast, Spain also has six teams competing in Europe, but at least one will be eliminated this week as Real Madrid faces Atletico Madrid in the last-16. While Barcelona is well-positioned to advance in the Champions League, their prospects beyond that remain uncertain. In the Europa League, Sociedad heads to Old Trafford level with United, while Athletic Bilbao trails Roma 2-1, and in the Conference League, Real Betis is tied with Guimaraes.
The Premier League’s strength is further underscored by the fact that Italy and Germany, ranked third and fourth respectively, have only four clubs remaining from their original eight.
Thus, it would require an unusual turn of events for Premier League teams to falter significantly. If Arsenal, Liverpool, Villa, and Chelsea can uphold their first-leg victories, it would be ideal. If United and Spurs can also secure their places, the fifth spot could be virtually guaranteed.
Could the Premier League Field Six Champions League Teams?
In theory, yes. Besides the fifth-place Premier League team earning an additional Champions League spot, it is crucial to note that the Europa League winners gain entry into UEFA’s elite competition. This scenario adds extra motivation for Manchester United and Tottenham, who are currently trailing by 13 points behind fifth-placed Manchester City.
Consequently, their best chance of qualifying for the Champions League next season is by clinching the Europa League title. While this is no small feat, both clubs remain among the favorites to win the competition, alongside Lazio, Athletic Bilbao, and Roma.
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Indeed, if the Premier League secures a fifth Champions League spot and either United or Spurs triumphs in the Europa League, a pathway for a seventh English team to qualify exists.
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This would only become a reality if Villa finishes outside the top five but wins the Champions League, which rewards the winners with a place in the following season’s league phase. To achieve this, Villa would need to triumph over Club Bruges, then either Liverpool or Paris Saint-Germain, followed by possibly overcoming Real Madrid, and finally contend with either Bayern Munich or Barcelona in the championship match. A formidable challenge, no doubt.
Aston Villa certainly prefers to aim for fifth place, or ideally fourth, in the Premier League, but for their supporters, this scenario is a tantalizing dream, with odds currently pegged at 33-1.
