Russia is capitalizing on Donald Trump’s recent suspension of intelligence sharing with Kyiv, launching a series of missile and drone attacks aimed at crippling key Ukrainian infrastructure and undermining President Volodymyr Zelensky’s negotiating stance, experts have informed The i Paper. On Thursday evening, the Russian military executed a large-scale assault on Ukraine’s energy facilities, injuring ten individuals, including a child, and severely disrupting essential heating and water supplies.
“Russia aims to inflict suffering on ordinary Ukrainians by targeting energy and gas production sites, persisting in its objective of leaving the population without light, heat, and basic necessities, thereby causing maximum distress to civilians,” stated Ukraine’s Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko on Friday morning.
This aggressive action followed closely behind Trump’s announcement to halt military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, a move that significantly weakened Kyiv’s capacity to detect and intercept imminent missile threats and to accurately identify Russian military positions. Despite Trump’s confrontation with Zelensky in the Oval Office last week—where the Ukrainian leader was chastised for perceived ingratitude towards the United States—discussions aimed at resolving the ongoing three-year conflict are scheduled to occur in Saudi Arabia next week.
Weakened Ukrainian Defense
“One of the primary reasons this attack proved so devastating is that Ukraine has been rendered less capable of utilizing its air defense systems,” remarked Dr. Marion Messmer, a senior research fellow in the International Security Programme at Chatham House. She elaborated, stating that Ukraine “no longer has access to the critical intelligence that would have been necessary to thwart incoming attacks.” This intelligence blackout, she suggested, has been strategically leveraged by Russia.
“US intelligence has played a vital role in enabling Ukraine to monitor Russian troop movements and anticipate potential strikes,” Messmer added. The United States’ satellite and detection capabilities have allowed Ukraine not only to preemptively strike but also to effectively counter enemy targets.
Rod Thornton, a Russian military analyst at King’s College London, emphasized that the pause in US intelligence will deprive Ukraine of crucial satellite imagery essential for identifying targets for their own missile operations against Russia. “What can the Ukrainians target if they lack visibility on enemy positions?” he questioned. “They are unable to see beyond the horizon unless they deploy their own limited drones for reconnaissance, which they have in short supply and have been reliant on American resources to ascertain the locations of Russian assets they can engage.”
Russia ‘Encouraged’ by Success of Bombardment
Thornton noted that Russia is likely to feel “emboldened” by the effectiveness of their recent attacks and Ukraine’s diminished defensive capabilities, suggesting that bombardments will become increasingly successful. “Russian drones and missiles are likely to penetrate Ukrainian ground-based air defenses due to the lack of early warning,” he stated. He cautioned that Ukraine can expect a surge in attacks, “obscured by numerous drone operations simultaneously, which will overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and hinder their ability to target the more significant missile threats.”
- Analysis: The US intelligence suspension also means Ukrainian forces now lack access to high-quality radio intercepts, diminishing their ability to monitor Russian communications on the battlefield.
- This will severely limit Ukraine’s capacity to effectively target Russian positions with their own missiles.
- Previously, American intelligence provided timely warnings to Ukraine regarding incoming threats, allowing them to execute defensive strategies.
- Now, Ukrainians can only react in the nick of time, diminishing their operational effectiveness.
Russia ‘Weakening’ Ukraine’s Negotiating Position
“These types of attacks do not contribute to fostering an environment conducive to a ceasefire,” Messmer observed, reflecting on the recent missile strikes. She hypothesized that Russia is escalating its bombardment strategy to exert pressure on Ukraine to engage in negotiations.
“The US’s decisions will likely have a substantial impact on morale in Ukraine, so if additional severe attacks occur, it may serve to further erode morale—or it could simply be an opportunistic tactic,” she added. “We should anticipate that Russia will continue to attempt to capture as much Ukrainian territory as possible to coerce Ukraine into accepting terms that are more favorable to Russia.”
In recent weeks, Trump has seemingly shifted US policy closer to Russia, initiating discussions with the Kremlin regarding the conflict’s resolution while refraining from condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine at the United Nations. The Kremlin has quickly expressed its approval, with officials suggesting that US foreign policy is increasingly aligned with Russian interests.
