Potential Outcomes of a Softer Brexit
As Sir Keir Starmer’s vision for a more accommodating Brexit comes into sharper focus, the real-world implications of such a deal are becoming increasingly clear. The UK is contemplating a plan to align its food safety, animal, and plant health regulations with those of the EU to enhance trade opportunities. Experts suggest that while this could lead to greater variety for British consumers, it may also require the government to scale back its commitments to animal welfare standards.
The Prime Minister has positioned securing a veterinary or SPS (sanitary and phytosanitary) agreement with the EU as a cornerstone of his Brexit re-evaluation strategy. The government aims for this agreement to facilitate smoother trade flows of food and other goods between the UK and the continent, ultimately reducing costs and administrative burdens at the border.
Research indicates that such an agreement could revitalize agriculture and food exports from the UK while simultaneously increasing imports from the EU. According to The i Paper, senior EU officials have expressed concerns that a deal could compel the UK to adopt EU regulations, effectively making it a rule-taker in matters of food safety and health standards. This would involve aligning with the European Court of Justice’s decisions, similar to the arrangement Switzerland has under its own SPS agreement with the EU.
Many seasoned Brexit analysts believe that the UK is likely to concede to these demands, as doing so would allow it to negotiate more freely on contentious issues like youth mobility. Although any agreement will require negotiation, here is what a so-called “Swiss-style” SPS deal with dynamic alignment could entail in practice:
Trade Benefits
One of the most significant advantages could accrue to British firms exporting to the EU, potentially adding billions of pounds to the UK economy. William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), stated that a Swiss-style agreement would make it “cheaper to send fruits, vegetables, and plant products over [to the EU],” as it would eliminate most of the costly red tape and border checks.
Alignment with EU standards could lead to a substantial increase in British food and agricultural exports to the EU, which have already declined by 5% since Brexit. Research conducted by Aston University’s Centre for Business Prosperity and the University of Bristol, as referenced by Bain, suggests that this alignment could boost exports by more than 20%, injecting billions into the British economy. Bain emphasized, “We want to see a maximalist and deep SPS agreement that significantly reduces costs and regulatory burdens.”
This arrangement might also alleviate the contentious “Irish Sea Border” between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, which has been a point of contention for unionists who argue that food checks undermine the region’s integral connection to the UK. Bain noted, “[An SPS deal] would significantly reduce the need for checks concerning Northern Ireland,” highlighting the improvements made in the process, although checks still exist due to Northern Ireland’s compliance with EU SPS rules.
Impacts on British Consumers
The influx of imports from the EU to the UK is projected to grow by approximately 5.6%, according to the aforementioned research. Trade experts believe that this increase would enhance consumer choice in supermarkets and other retail outlets, potentially lowering prices due to decreased trade costs. Andrew Opie, director of communications at the British Retail Consortium, explained, “The UK currently imports about 30% of its food from the EU, and minimizing trade friction through an SPS agreement would help lower costs and improve availability.”
This change could particularly benefit smaller European producers of artisanal products, such as cheeses, who have struggled with the bureaucratic challenges that arose post-Brexit. Thus, British consumers might suddenly find a broader selection of high-quality European foods available on store shelves.
David Henig, a Brexit trade expert, elaborated that while large European firms exporting to the UK have managed to navigate the additional costs and complexities since Brexit, many small businesses have ceased operations as the economics no longer make sense. “Since Brexit, you’re seeing reduced choice, and several European products have increased in price,” he noted. “Only bulk products are making it into the UK, leaving many smaller items out of reach.” Henig added that it would be easier to import products that have previously faced challenges, such as cheeses and olives.
Concerns Over Animal Welfare
There are rising concerns that the UK government may have to roll back on animal welfare standards established post-Brexit, as these may exceed the EU regulations that the UK would be required to adopt under a Swiss-style agreement. Recently, the government hesitated to commit to a ban on foie gras imports, which are not prohibited in the EU but are deemed inhumane by many animal rights advocates. Labour has pledged to outlaw these imports due to ethical concerns regarding the force-feeding practices involved in their production.
Furthermore, The i Paper has reported that the UK may need to reconsider its ban on live animal exports, a policy implemented by the Conservative government in May of the previous year and promoted as a benefit of leaving the EU. Bain noted that “the Swiss precedent requires strict adherence to EU rules—you cannot exceed EU standards, nor can you lower your standards below those set by the EU.” Henig further commented, “If the UK were to pursue an SPS deal, it’s unlikely they could maintain the ban on live animal exports. The foie gras situation reflects a similar dilemma; the government has yet to follow through on a promise to ban it and would likely encounter significant pushback from EU member states.”
Traveling with Pets
Holidaymakers may find it easier to take their pets abroad without needing a document signed by a veterinarian, a requirement introduced due to Brexit. Rob Williams, junior vice president of the British Veterinary Association, noted that the Swiss model allows pets to “travel using a pet passport without needing an animal health certificate.” He added, “Animal health certificates can be time-consuming and complex to obtain, especially at short notice, which only adds to the pressures the veterinary profession faces. Removing this requirement would greatly benefit the workforce, as well as holidaymakers who would save on costs and reduce bureaucratic hassle.”
Bringing Food to Europe
Shortly after the UK officially departed from the EU, Dutch television captured border officials seizing ham sandwiches from drivers arriving via ferry, explaining that since Brexit, “you are no longer allowed to bring certain foods to Europe, such as meat, fruit, vegetables, and fish.” This incident highlighted the practical repercussions of Brexit for British travelers. However, an SPS deal could reverse this sandwich ban, allowing individuals to “safely take their sandwich into Europe,” according to Henig.
Gene Editing Regulations
One of the most significant areas where the UK has diverged from EU standards is in permitting gene editing of crops, a practice still banned by Brussels. It is likely that the UK may need to reverse this policy change as part of an SPS agreement unless a specific exemption can be negotiated. Should the ban be reinstated, it would impose additional costs on farmers, according to Liz Webster, founder of Save British Farming, although she argues that this would be a “price worth paying” for improved trade conditions.
Nevertheless, the National Farmers Union (NFU) has cautioned against complete alignment with EU regulations, arguing that maintaining greater regulatory control over UK agricultural practices is essential for driving growth. A representative stated, “While alignment may be a starting point in EU negotiations, becoming mere rule-takers without the ability to influence those rules is a compromise the NFU would be reluctant to accept in exchange for reduced trade barriers.”
In response to these ongoing discussions, a government spokesperson remarked, “We have been clear that a veterinary or SPS agreement could enhance trade and provide significant advantages for both parties. The specifics of any agreement will be subject to negotiation. The UK and the EU already maintain similarly high standards, and we are committed to addressing trade barriers.”
