How England Can Secure Their First Men’s Six Nations Title Since 2020
What must England accomplish to claim their first men’s Six Nations title since the disrupted season of 2020? In that challenging year, the team began with a loss in France, followed by a hard-fought victory over Scotland at Murrayfield. They then triumphed against Ireland and Wales at Twickenham, but the season was interrupted by the pandemic lockdown. England capped off their campaign with a decisive 34-5 win over Italy in Rome in October.
Since that victorious season, England’s performance has seen a decline, finishing in fifth place in 2021, third in 2022, fourth in 2023, and again third last year. This marks their longest stretch of finishing outside the top two since the period from 2004 to 2007. The last time they missed the top two spots for five consecutive years was during a particularly bleak phase from 1983 to 1988.
Current Standings and Scenarios
As the current standings reveal, with just two rounds of matches remaining in the next two weekends, Ireland leads with 14 match points, followed by France with 11, and England with 10. Scotland is trailing with six points. Both Italy (four points) and Wales (one point) are already eliminated from championship contention.
Each match presents an opportunity for teams to earn points, ranging from a maximum of five points down to zero. Teams can earn four points for a win, two for a draw, and a bonus point for scoring four or more tries, or for losing by fewer than eight points. In the event of teams finishing equal on match points, the first tiebreaker is points difference. Currently, England sits at -3, while Ireland boasts +28, France +91, and Scotland also at -3. The second tiebreaker is the number of tries scored.
England’s Path to Victory
Numerous scenarios could unfold, but England’s most viable pathway to reclaiming the Six Nations trophy requires them to win their remaining matches against Italy at Twickenham this Sunday and Wales in Cardiff on Saturday, May 15. Achieving this would give them a maximum total of 20 match points. However, they would also need both Ireland and France to drop points in their upcoming matches.
The most likely scenario involves France defeating Ireland in Dublin this Saturday, but without earning a try-scoring bonus point. Following that, France would need to fall short of maximum points against Scotland in their match in Paris the following Saturday.
This would mean that France could finish with no more than 19 points in the final table, while Ireland might find themselves in a position where they must secure a maximum return from their final match against Italy. It’s noteworthy that the France versus Scotland match is the last fixture on the 15th, allowing England to kick off against Wales at 4:45 PM, potentially needing a significant victory while waiting to see the outcome of the Paris match—where they would be hoping for a Scottish upset.
It’s a nerve-wracking situation! Among other potential scenarios, Ireland could emerge victorious against France at the Aviva Stadium and Italy in Rome, completing a Grand Slam. This would mark their third consecutive title—an achievement that has not been accomplished by any team during the Six Nations era.
For Scotland to secure their first title since the last year of the old Five Nations in 1999, they would need to defeat both Wales and France. However, even if they reach 16 match points, they would almost certainly require Ireland to lose twice, along with England losing at least one of their matches against Italy or Wales—or both. This outcome appears highly unlikely.
