Europe’s Urgent Call for Independent Defense Spending
BRUSSELS – For years, leaders across Europe have expressed the need for a unified defense strategy, aspiring to secure the continent’s safety without reliance on the United States and its unpredictable political landscape. However, the complexities of this issue have often stalled progress. As EU leaders convene for an emergency summit in Brussels today, there is now a widespread acknowledgment that Europe must urgently enhance its defense capabilities and finance its own security. Discussions are underway regarding the potential allocation of trillions of euros to counter the looming threat from Russian aggression, particularly in light of President Donald Trump’s alarming hints at withdrawing US support from NATO.
Friedrich Merz, the anticipated chancellor of Germany, has remarked that it is “five minutes to midnight for Europe.” Echoing this sentiment, French President Emmanuel Macron declared that the continent has reached a “turning point in history.” He recognized that the US can no longer be counted on to uphold the West’s security framework. “I want to believe the US will remain by our side,” he stated in a televised address. “However, we must prepare for the possibility that this may not be the case.”
At today’s summit, leaders will evaluate proposals to significantly increase defense expenditures. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to unveil plans to unlock approximately €800 billion (£675 billion) in additional defense funding over the next several years. Her initiative, dubbed the Rearm Europe plan, aims to utilize a mix of untapped loans, new funding sources, and revised financing regulations to encourage banks to support defense projects. “This is a once-in-a-generation moment that requires an urgency mindset and a strategic plan to rearm Europe,” she emphasized, advocating for swift and substantial arms deliveries to bolster Ukraine’s defenses.
One NATO official shared insights with The i Paper, noting a remarkable consensus among European nations regarding the need to bolster defense spending. “There is a rare unity here. We all agree on the importance of supporting Ukraine and raising defense budgets. Although these issues are challenging, we have managed to maintain cohesion on this front,” they remarked. Merz has already secured a coalition agreement with potential partners that includes an additional investment of €400 billion (£335 billion) in German defense, alongside €500 billion (£419 billion) earmarked for infrastructure development. This announcement follows UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s recent declaration that UK defense spending would rise to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027.
There is a grudging awareness in European capitals that this pivotal moment has arrived. Back in 2014, during the NATO summit in Cardiff, shortly after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, leaders committed to allocating 2 percent of their GDP to defense. It is only now that NATO’s European members are approaching that target. However, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has suggested that they should aim for a minimum of 3 percent. Experienced officials in Brussels often claim that the EU tends to thrive in times of crisis, and this situation is no exception. European countries now face the challenge of funding and coordinating the revitalization of their dormant militaries.
More urgently, they must ensure that Ukraine can sustain its defense capabilities following Trump’s announcement of a freeze on all US funding. Additionally, they need to propose a viable peace plan that includes around 40,000 European “reassurance” troops to secure a ceasefire. Discussions are also underway regarding the potential for France and the UK to share their nuclear arsenals with the rest of Europe in the event that the US nuclear umbrella is withdrawn.
Ursula von der Leyen’s announcement of plans to unlock €800 billion (£675 billion) in additional defense funding has drawn significant attention (Photo: Yves Herman/ Reuters). The last comparable crisis faced by the EU occurred four years ago during the Covid pandemic, prompting a collective response that involved creating a shared €750 billion (£628 billion) debt to facilitate recovery. At that time, Germany was adamant that such measures would be a one-time occurrence. Today, however, there is a newfound enthusiasm in Germany for breaking fiscal taboos, both at home and within the EU framework.
Merz has expressed intentions to abolish the constitutional debt limit that has previously restricted the government’s ability to make substantial investments, and he has advocated for the EU to discard its spending limits, proposing that defense spending be exempt from stringent balanced budget regulations.
Building a Robust European Defense Framework
- European nations have lifted objections regarding collaboration with Britain on defense matters.
- Diplomatic efforts are in full swing, with notable visits by Starmer and Macron to Washington, alongside mini-summits in London and Paris.
- Principles like the “coalition of the willing” for peacekeeping in Ukraine have eased prior barriers to cooperation.
For instance, France has softened its stance on the establishment of an EU-specific defense bank or fund, recognizing that the UK should also benefit from the bloc’s financial incentives aimed at enhancing Europe’s defense industry. There is a growing consensus that joint European procurement could effectively address gaps in Ukraine’s armory. Following disparaging remarks from US Vice-President JD Vance about European peacekeeping initiatives, a European Commission official stressed the importance of resisting divisive narratives and focusing on fostering a unified European consensus. “We must avoid engaging in fruitless disputes that could further alienate us. Our priority now is to find solutions independently, and we are gradually forming a coalition that may function without US involvement,” the official noted.
French President Emmanuel Macron has articulated that Europe is at a “turning point in history” (Photo: France Televisions/ Reuters). Fabian Zuleeg, CEO of the European Policy Centre, expressed strong concerns regarding the new US administration. “Our baseline should be that they view us as adversaries,” he stated. “They are likely to employ any strategy available to undermine us, and this is not mere coincidence or a slip of the tongue; it forms part of a broader plan to divide us.”
France and Germany are also contemplating lifting their reservations about seizing Russia’s estimated $300 billion (£233 billion) in frozen foreign assets held in Europe, while many nations are considering reintroducing mandatory military service. The focus of these plans is distinctly European-centric. Recently, discussions about appeasing Trump’s aggressive trade policies through increased purchases of American weaponry have shifted toward prioritizing domestic defense manufacturers such as the UK’s BAE Systems, Germany’s Rheinmetall, Italy’s Leonardo, and France’s Thales.
Despite the potential for new funding sources, the scale of the challenges remains daunting. Urgent investments are needed in air defense, artillery, missiles, and drones, with the goal of raising average military budgets across the EU by 1.5 percentage points of GDP over the next four years. Although European defense spending has gradually increased, it remains unevenly distributed; for instance, Poland allocated 4.12 percent of its GDP to defense last year, while Spain managed only 1.12 percent. According to estimates from think tanks such as Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Europe must recruit 300,000 new soldiers, procure 1,400 new tanks, and roughly double its defense spending over the next five years to achieve self-sufficiency without US support. To meet these self-defense goals, Europe would need an additional €250 billion (£209 billion) annually in the short term, effectively doubling collective defense spending to between 3.5 and 4 percent of GDP.
“If European leaders focus solely on appeasing Trump, they may achieve a hollow victory,” warns Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “They may spend more on their militaries, but if they continue to purchase American-made equipment, they will remain dependent on the US for combat capabilities, manpower, and strategic leadership. This is a poor deal. It is better to strive for a European defense framework that is resilient to both Trump and future administrations.”
Europe has made significant strides in its approach to defense issues. In 1950, prior to the Treaty of Rome, a French initiative for a European Defense Community (EDC) aimed at integrating Western European military forces was proposed, but it was swiftly abandoned due to concerns that it might undermine NATO, which was only a year old at that time. During the Brexit referendum campaign in 2016, merely suggesting the idea of a European army may have swayed voters toward leaving the EU. In 2019, during Trump’s first term, Macron raised the notion of establishing a credible and self-sufficient European defense structure, termed “strategic autonomy,” although many countries remained wary of potentially weakening NATO. Last month, Macron invoked Poland’s defense spending of 4 percent of GDP, recalling that such levels were commonplace during the Cold War in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. He stated, “That era is over,” and now, few would disagree.
