An unexpected warming of relations between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky brought a rare moment of optimism to Whitehall on Wednesday morning. British officials found themselves contemplating the implications of recent announcements from Washington regarding the future of peace negotiations in Ukraine.
During breakfast discussions, UK diplomats were absorbing the news from President Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday night, where he revealed that Kyiv is prepared to enter into a significant agreement with the United States concerning rare earth minerals. This development followed a series of high-level intercontinental visits and phone calls orchestrated by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron.
While the relationship between Trump and Zelensky seemed to have slightly improved after a heated exchange in the Oval Office last Friday, it still pales in comparison to the rapid thaw in US-Russia relations that has been unfolding in recent weeks.
- The White House has not only halted military aid to Ukraine but has also suspended offensive cyber operations and informational campaigns targeting Russia.
- Efforts to seize the assets of Russian oligarchs have been disbanded, signaling a shift in priorities.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior officials from the Trump administration visited Saudi Arabia last month to commence peace negotiations with Russia, expressing support for Russia’s potential reintegration into the G7.
On Wednesday, it was also revealed that the United States has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv, a move that could significantly hinder Ukraine’s defensive capabilities against incoming missile threats.
Moscow has once again entered the discourse. “We’ve had serious discussions with Russia,” Trump stated during his address to Congress on Tuesday evening. “Then I’ve received strong signals that they are ready for peace. Wouldn’t that be beautiful? It’s time to stop this madness.” Trump has consistently articulated that fostering a good relationship with Moscow is in the best interest of the United States, often questioning the relevance of international security institutions established after World War II, including NATO and the European Union.
Trump’s first term was largely overshadowed by the probe led by former special counsel Robert Mueller, which he labeled as the “Russia hoax.” This backdrop prompted Conservative MP Graham Stuart to boldly speculate on social media, “We have to consider the possibility that President Trump is a Russian asset.” While this stark perspective is not widely endorsed by the UK Government, it reflects the unease surrounding the evolving dynamics.
Despite the shifting political landscape, a UK Government source emphasized, “The UK is not going to reach out to Russia publicly at all; it’s very much a US thing. Our priority is to stand with Europe.” The source also noted that Trump is keen to keep Europe out of the negotiations with Russia, stating, “He doesn’t want his pitch queered. He wants his deal and perhaps a Nobel Peace Prize.”
Nevertheless, behind the scenes, UK-Russia discussions continue. Key figures in these dialogues include Yuri Ushakov, who served as Russia’s ambassador to Washington from 1998 to 2008 and remains influential in international matters.
Even though public interactions are strained, a consistent backchannel of communication has been maintained, primarily steered by the UK’s national security adviser and Russian securocrat Nikolai Patrushev. “He is the backchannel,” a Whitehall source noted, indicating that wherever negotiations are feasible, be it in Switzerland or Turkey, Patrushev is likely to be involved.
After the 2018 Salisbury poisonings, over 150 Russian diplomats were expelled from European nations, with the remaining presence in the UK dwindling to single digits. However, diplomatic channels remain open, with embassies in both London and Moscow facilitating discussions on various international issues, from Hamas to Hezbollah.
This discreet backchannel has proven valuable in de-escalating potential tensions that could escalate into broader conflicts. Collaboratively with other allies, the UK has been able to alert Russia to its aggressive actions, urging them to mitigate any hostile behavior before it spirals out of control.
Currently, while these diplomatic avenues remain active, international relations are being navigated through loud proclamations. Trump continues to exert pressure on Zelensky, pushing for a ceasefire agreement that aligns with the administration’s terms. This proposal would see Ukraine cede territory to Russia and grant access to valuable mineral resources for the US, all without solid assurances for Ukraine’s future security.
In light of Trump’s communication regarding Zelensky’s letter, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov remarked, “On the whole, this approach is positive.” Meanwhile, European diplomatic efforts persist. Defence Secretary John Healey is scheduled to arrive in Washington for talks with his US counterpart Pete Hegseth on Thursday. Additionally, the French have proposed a joint visit involving Starmer, Macron, and Zelensky to meet with Trump and present a unified peace plan.
Thus far, the Europeans seem content to delegate the responsibility of engaging with Moscow entirely to the Americans. “The Russians want a deal as much as anyone else does,” a UK Government source commented, “but they need to be able to frame it as a win; they need to say: ‘Ukraine must come to us.’”
