US Considerations for Restricting Ukraine’s Access to Starlink
The United States is contemplating the possibility of limiting Ukraine’s access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet services, as part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to curtail intelligence sharing with Kyiv. Starlink has been instrumental in providing essential internet connectivity to Ukrainians and their armed forces, which is crucial for operating drones—an integral component of Ukraine’s military strategy. Military analysts have characterized such a decision as a potential “game-changer.”
Mikael Skillt, a former Ukrainian special forces operative who recently fought against the Russian invasion, expressed that losing access to Starlink would lead to a “clusterfk,” severely impairing communications for hospitals, critical infrastructure, and military units. He emphasized, “US satellites aren’t useful only on the battlefield; they help prevent attacks on civilian power stations, residential buildings, and infrastructure.”
Last month, Reuters reported that during discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, US negotiators, while advocating for a critical mineral deal with Ukraine, had raised the possibility of cutting access to Starlink. At that time, Musk dismissed the claims. However, following a recent heated exchange between Trump and Zelensky at the White House, Musk took to X (formerly Twitter) to state that the Ukrainian President “wants a forever war, a never-ending graft meat grinder.” He added, “This is evil.”
UK Intelligence Officials Prepare for Potential Gaps
In light of the situation, the US has already begun to withdraw essential intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, following a directive from the Trump administration to suspend military aid deliveries. UK intelligence officials are closely monitoring developments and are preparing to intervene where they can fill any gaps caused by a potential US intelligence withdrawal from Ukraine.
Trump’s readiness to utilize intelligence tools as leverage has heightened concerns among security officials that Ukraine’s access to Starlink may soon be jeopardized. A Ukrainian government official warned that if the US were to revoke this access, it would expose Ukrainians to greater danger and disrupt key military communications. US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz acknowledged that America had “taken a step back” regarding intelligence sharing with Ukraine, stating that the US was “pausing and reviewing all aspects of this relationship.”
An American official clarified that the measures pertain to intelligence provided by the US Department of Defense, including assistance in launching precision strikes on Russian targets, and would not impact operations by US agencies on Ukrainian soil. Nevertheless, Alexander Khara, a former adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, cautioned that such a decision could “cost human lives and territory in Ukraine.” He elaborated, “This affects situational awareness, target acquisition, and damage assessment, as well as the ability to strike with American-made systems.” He expressed concern that the overall consequences on the battlefield remain uncertain but fears it could lead to significant losses.
Skillt noted that Trump’s recent remarks have rendered the US and Starlink unreliable, prompting military units to consider the expensive transition to alternative providers like OneWeb—a London-based subsidiary of the French company Eutelsat, which maintains over 600 satellites in orbit. He stated, “I would switch to another solution like OneWeb. Relying on a solution that isn’t 100 percent trustworthy is not a sound strategy.” A spokesman for Eutelsat confirmed that the company is already operational in Ukraine and that OneWeb could serve as a viable “alternative.” The company added, “We are actively collaborating with European institutions and business partners to enable the swift deployment of additional user terminals for critical missions and infrastructure.”
Potential Fallout of Intelligence Restrictions
A scenario in which Musk and Trump attempt to sever Ukraine’s access to Starlink would leave over half of military units without communication lines, according to a Ukrainian commander. They emphasized that lacking “vital” US intelligence would substantially hinder daily military operations against Russian forces. “Some of the intelligence products provided to us daily by the US are essential for our operations,” they noted. “It’s conceivable that the UK could step up support, but it’s difficult to determine what they would be willing to offer.” They concluded, “This will create bigger problems for us than bullets.”
Musk expedited the delivery of thousands of Starlink terminals to Ukraine to replace communications systems that were destroyed by Russia following its full-scale invasion in February 2022. The service has become a backbone for military operations, facilitating communication between units. The satellite systems are partially funded by the US Department of Defense, with approximately half of the 42,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine being financed by Poland.
The US has invested a decade in cultivating a robust intelligence relationship with Ukraine’s military and intelligence agencies, establishing a network of spy bases near the Russian border and training an elite Ukrainian commando force to intercept Russian drones and communications. One of the unit’s graduates, Krylo Budanov, now leads the country’s military intelligence. Despite the Trump administration’s decision to sever intelligence ties with Kyiv, a US official indicated that “back channels” would be utilized to ensure that crucial information continues to reach Ukraine.
Trump’s Use of Intelligence as a Bargaining Chip
Nicholas Drummond, a former British Army officer turned defense analyst, warned that Trump’s withdrawal of military aid could trigger a “wider conflict” with Russia. He remarked, “If the US does withdraw this support, it allows Russia to launch attacks without fear of being intercepted. My concern is that NATO may be compelled to escalate its involvement, which could provoke Russia and result in a dangerous escalation.” Drummond added, “Trump’s actions could inadvertently ignite a broader conflict.”
His use of intelligence as a bargaining chip has long been a source of concern for security officials across Europe, especially after a senior White House official previously threatened to remove Canada from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance. Last week, reports surfaced revealing that UK security service officials have sought reassurances regarding how intelligence is being utilized and disseminated by their US counterparts amid rising anxiety over the shifting foreign policy of the US President. The UK Foreign Office has been approached for comment.
