Polling Results Indicate Discontent with Chancellor Rachel Reeves
Recent polling conducted exclusively for The i Paper reveals that nearly half of voters are dissatisfied with Rachel Reeves’ performance as Chancellor. Only 18 percent of respondents expressed satisfaction with her job, while a significant 47 percent voiced their discontent. This polling data intensifies the pressure on Reeves as she approaches her Spring Statement scheduled for later this month, where she may face difficult choices regarding tax hikes or further cuts to meet her fiscal targets.
The backdrop of this discontent is characterized by stagnant economic growth, which could hinder the anticipated pace of interest rate reductions. Additionally, there is growing frustration among Labour MPs regarding Reeves’ handling of economic issues. Her controversial decisions, such as cutting winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners and maintaining the two-child benefit cap, have sparked considerable debate. Furthermore, her move to increase employers’ national insurance contributions in the budget last October has drawn substantial criticism, with the Bank of England suggesting it may have exacerbated inflation by causing businesses to hire fewer employees or pass higher costs onto consumers.
Reeves’ decision to extend inheritance tax to farmland has also ignited controversy and sparked protests. With a net satisfaction rating of -29, she finds herself in a similar position of unpopularity as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who holds a rating of -30. However, Reeves is less favored than Reform leader Nigel Farage (-1) or Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch (+1). Among Labour voters, only 40 percent expressed satisfaction with her performance, while 27 percent reported dissatisfaction.
The timing of these poll results adds further strain on Reeves as she prepares for her Spring Statement on March 26. She has not ruled out the possibility of cutting public spending or increasing taxes to balance the budget. Tensions within the Labour Party have also emerged, particularly after Anneliese Dodds resigned from the Cabinet. Dodds criticized the Chancellor’s decision to offset increased defense spending by slashing the aid budget by 40 percent, advocating for a reassessment of borrowing rules or tax increases to fund the necessary allocations.
On the same day as Reeves’ Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will publish an update on the state of public finances. Reeves has stated that her Spring Statement will not be a comprehensive “fiscal event” featuring extensive changes to tax policy or public spending. Nevertheless, she insists that her borrowing rules are “ironclad,” indicating that if the OBR finds these rules at risk of being breached, she will be compelled to make adjustments to taxes or spending.
Reeves has committed to the principle of not funding day-to-day government operations through increased borrowing, a stance she claims is designed to reassure financial markets about the stability of the UK economy following a turbulent period. She has also suggested that she inherited a £22 billion “black hole” from the previous administration that requires addressing. Her October tax increases were presented as a one-time measure intended to generate £40 billion and provide an additional £22.6 billion for the NHS.
However, reports indicate that the anticipated £9.9 billion “headroom”—the difference between actual borrowing and the maximum allowable under fiscal rules—has been eliminated due to weaker-than-expected economic growth and persistent inflation, raising the likelihood of increased borrowing. This situation presents a considerable political challenge for Reeves, especially after she pledged not to introduce significant tax increases prior to the next general election. This promise follows backlash from businesses regarding her decision to raise the national insurance rate for employers and impose inheritance tax on previously exempt farmland.
If the funding shortfall turns out to be relatively minor, Reeves may be able to address it through minor adjustments to tax regulations. However, a more substantial financial deficit would pose a significant challenge.
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Reform Party Surges Ahead of Labour in Recent Poll
During a recent trip to Washington DC, Starmer declined to rule out potential tax increases or spending cuts. The polling data also indicates that the Reform Party has surpassed both Labour and the Conservatives for the first time, with a BMG Research poll showing Reform at 27 percent, narrowly leading Labour at 26 percent, although this lead is within the margin of error.
BMG polled 1,586 adults in Great Britain on February 25 and 26 online. Results were weighted to reflect the demographic profile of adults in Great Britain. BMG is a member of the British Polling Council.
