Political Fireworks in Hull as Reform UK Makes Bold Moves
On Thursday night in Hull, political fireworks ignited – quite literally. Amidst a dazzling display of pyrotechnics on stage, Nigel Farage revealed to a raucous crowd of 2,000 Reform UK supporters that the party’s candidate for the newly established mayoralty of Hull and East Yorkshire is none other than former Olympic boxer and gold medallist Luke Campbell. “I have been eagerly anticipating this announcement for weeks,” stated a source within Reform. The audience responded enthusiastically, reflecting the growing confidence within Farage’s team that they are on the brink of delivering a significant blow to Westminster’s entrenched two-party system.
While Keir Starmer can take a moment to breathe easy this weekend, following a seamless trip to the White House (even as he faced backlash from a minister’s resignation over his decision to cut foreign aid to bolster defense spending), his challenges at home remain formidable. On Friday, Reform activists were buzzing over a new electoral calculus poll indicating that if an election were held now, Reform UK would not only secure the highest percentage of votes but also clinch the most seats, garnering 25.8 percent compared to Labour’s 24.7 percent. This sentiment aligns with recent findings from The i Paper‘s latest BMG poll, which places Reform in the lead at 27 percent, just ahead of Labour by a single point.
‘There’s a palpable sense that Reform is on an unstoppable trajectory now,” lamented one disheartened Conservative. This sentiment has been echoed within Reform HQ, where aides have set up shop in Millbank Tower, the same office from which Tony Blair and his team orchestrated their election triumphs. However, the atmosphere there is notably different; the screens in the Reform office prominently feature their preferred news outlet, GB News.
As Conservative Campaign Headquarters grapples with dwindling funds and demoralized staff members lamenting their workload and compensation, Reform UK is in the process of expanding its operations. But is this truly a march toward unassailable electoral success, or could Farage’s ambitions for No 10 still face hurdles? While the newly appointed Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf, known for his grueling 14-hour workdays, is diligently professionalizing the party, whispers of discontent are starting to surface.
- The first signs of discord can be found within the parliamentary party. Both Starmer and Kemi Badenoch are acutely aware of the challenges involved in unifying their MPs, as members often harbor conflicting views and may act out of self-interest rather than collective benefit.
- With only five Reform MPs currently, one might expect this to be a minor issue for Farage. Yet, indications of dissatisfaction are on the rise. How much common ground exists between Lee Anderson, a former Labour MP, and Rupert Lowe, a staunch Thatcherite, beyond their shared views on immigration?
- Earlier this month, the party unveiled an energy policy announcement that included a “windfall tax on renewable generated power” and a controversial “ban on Battery Energy Storage Systems.” These proposals raised eyebrows, particularly as Lowe himself owns a battery business. Was this a calculated move to put him in check? That’s at least one aide’s interpretation.
- It has not gone unnoticed that the MP for Great Yarmouth tends to operate more independently than his colleagues. “Rupert likes to carve out his own path,” remarked a party insider. When Elon Musk criticized Farage in January, suggesting he was unfit for leadership after failing to support Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (aka Tommy Robinson) in the grooming gangs scandal, Lowe’s tweets appeared less supportive compared to those of his peers.
- Farage has previously commented, “I’m sure he wouldn’t want this job even if you offered him 10 million dollars.” Nevertheless, Lowe is stepping up to clarify and develop the Reform message, as he plans to be a speaker at an event focused on “remaking conservatism” for the Centre for Policy Studies, a think tank favored by Thatcher supporters.
Then there’s the traditional base, which is increasingly questioning whether Farage has become, dare we say, too mainstream. Is he shifting leftward? They desire the party to maintain its insurgent status while attempting to attract votes from both Labour and the Conservatives, a challenge that grows as they unveil their positions. Moreover, should Reform aspire to govern, compromises may be necessary. Despite the jubilations over recent polling, the race is so tightly contested that no party is currently projected to achieve a majority.
This has led to discussions surrounding a potential electoral pact between Reform and the Tories. Reform figures believe that any pre-election alliance would be politically detrimental. How could they ally with the very party they have been critiquing? Furthermore, the notion of campaigning less aggressively in certain constituencies or presenting paper candidates doesn’t align well with Reform’s core identity. ‘The issue is that Reform is essentially a protest party, so just having the Reform name on the ballot would attract a lot of votes from my constituents,’ noted a Tory MP. “It’s not about the individual; it’s about the prevailing anti-politics sentiment.”
A more pragmatic scenario involves the two parties engaging in discussions after the election results are tallied, particularly if neither secures an outright majority. “The likely situation is that between us and the Tories, there are enough seats to impede Labour’s path,” shared a person closely connected to Reform.
At that juncture, the reality will set in: the lesser evil might just be collaborating with the Tories to prevent a Labour government. This is the prevailing mindset among some figures in both parties, who see the current moment as an opportunity to build relationships that could be crucial later on. While this is still a long way off, any potential power-sharing arrangement could put Reform’s internal dynamics to the ultimate test.
