The Challenges Facing the Conservative Party
It is undeniably a tumultuous period for the Conservative Party. Despite the numerous hurdles and missteps that Sir Keir Starmer has faced in his initial months as Prime Minister, the Conservatives are still grappling with the aftermath of their most significant electoral defeat in history. The party is not only confronting substantial financial issues but is also dealing with alarming membership statistics, as noted by The Sun’s political editor, Harry Cole, who suggests that Conservative membership has dwindled to a mere 125,000.
Party officials have disputed this figure, asserting that the actual membership is higher than the 131,680 reported during the leadership election last November. However, they have refrained from disclosing a precise membership count or allowing public access to internal records for scrutiny.
In stark contrast, last December, Reform UK’s website showcased a live membership count that exceeded the most recent Conservative figures. This revelation was a notable triumph for Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage, who invited select news organizations to verify the website’s coding for transparency. He even suggested the possibility of an independent audit of Reform’s records.
Regardless of whether Conservative membership is reported as 125,000, 135,000, or even 150,000, the underlying truth remains: it is alarmingly low—and this should be a cause for concern among party leadership. By the end of 2023, the Labour Party boasted 370,000 members, while the Liberal Democrats had 87,000; the latter figure is likely to have increased following the party’s strong performance in the recent general election.
Optimists might argue that party membership has generally declined over the decades, reminiscing about the early 1950s when the Conservative Party had nearly three million members and the Labour Party had at least a million. Autre temps, autre mœurs, but it’s essential to recognize that political parties are engaged in both comparative and absolute struggles.
The key takeaway here is that, irrespective of the exact membership figures, Labour has more than double the number of members compared to the Tories, Reform UK has surpassed them, and the Liberal Democrats are not far behind, which should be a source of discomfort for Conservative leaders.
Why Membership Numbers Matter
Membership figures carry both practical and presentational significance. On the presentational side, these numbers serve as a form of bragging rights in a political virility contest. A party that attracts a substantial membership appears to be successful, and conversely, a party with dwindling numbers may appear to be faltering. While this may seem like a simplistic argument, in today’s fast-paced political environment, where attention spans are fleeting, concise and straightforward messaging becomes crucial.
On a more practical level, party members contribute significantly to revenue through their membership fees. As the Conservatives find themselves in opposition, they are grappling with financial constraints, with reports indicating that once-generous donors are either reducing their contributions or being drawn toward Reform UK. A shrinking membership base exacerbates this financial strain, impacting the party’s ability to campaign, engage in public relations, conduct research, and develop policy.
Additionally, party members are traditionally a vital source of candidates and grassroots activists. While we live in an increasingly digital world, many may be surprised to learn just how much political parties still depend on volunteers during election time to canvass constituencies, distribute leaflets, and connect with voters. The ground game remains critical, and like any conflict, it requires a dedicated infantry.
It’s worth noting that Kemi Badenoch has only been at the helm of the Conservative Party for a brief 15 weeks. She faces a monumental task ahead, and a continuously declining membership poses a significant challenge. Badenoch and her team must not view this decline as an insurmountable obstacle, but rather as a pressing issue that must be addressed. The first step is to halt the decline, followed by efforts to reverse it.
People need compelling reasons to join a political organization. For a party as beleaguered and discredited as the Conservatives, this necessitates two crucial elements: a demonstrable commitment to holding the government accountable and a clear articulation of beliefs and policies that coalesce into a coherent and appealing vision for the nation’s future.
Currently, Badenoch appears to be outstripped by Reform UK in terms of addressing and articulating voter grievances and frustrations. While identifying problems is the easier part, offering a comprehensive alternative is the more challenging aspect—this is the metric that will determine the fate of both Badenoch and the Conservative Party as a whole. To rebuild its diminished ranks, Badenoch must provide a compelling reason for individuals to embrace Conservative ideals.
Eliot Wilson is a writer, commentator, and former clerk in the House of Commons, serving from 2005 to 2016.
