AfD’s Historic Rise in German Elections and Its Implications for the UK
No wonder the leaders of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) were celebrating on Monday morning, as the party achieved its strongest electoral performance since World War II, securing second place in Germany’s elections. In Westminster, the political landscape is shifting rapidly in response. Given the widespread unpopularity of the outgoing technocrat Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) incumbent, there was a sentiment among the centre-right Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) that they could have performed even better. They managed to garner only 28.6 percent of the vote, compared to the AfD’s impressive 20.8 percent, while the hard-left Die Linke also saw a boost in support.
The parallels with the current political situation in the UK are striking. While Labour achieved a significant victory last year, some analysts have characterized Sir Keir Starmer’s triumph as a “loveless landslide,” with Labour securing a lower percentage of the vote than any other party forming a post-war majority government. With Reform UK now outpacing Labour in the polls and previously secure constituencies facing challenges from pro-Gaza independents, Starmer must contemplate what his party’s coalition of voters could resemble in the next general election.
“One of the lessons of the German elections for Labour is that you can lose to both the left and the right,” remarked John McTernan, a seasoned Labour strategist, in an interview with The i Paper. “The SPD lost working-class voters to the AfD and younger voters to Die Linke. The threat for Labour, as evidenced in the last election, was not only from Reform on the right but also from the left, with the Greens and independents.”
As he embarks on coalition negotiations, Germany’s election victor, Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, can take some solace from polling that indicates the public views him as their least objectionable candidate for Chancellor. Approximately 34 percent of voters believe he will perform well in the role, 39 percent trust him to guide Germany effectively through crises, and 43 percent find him sufficiently statesmanlike for the office.
Merz acknowledged that the AfD’s doubling of its vote share serves as a “real warning bell, a real alarm bell for the political parties of the centre in Germany to devise common solutions.” This is a message that UK politicians should heed as well.
Nevertheless, the AfD is an extremist faction, and comparisons with the UK should be made cautiously. Party leader Alice Weidel once claimed that immigrants consist of “burqas, girls in headscarves, knife-wielding men on government benefits, and other good-for-nothing people.” Björn Höcke, the AfD leader in Thuringia, has been fined multiple times for invoking a banned Nazi slogan, “Everything for Germany,” which was also used by Nazi stormtroopers.
Merz has firmly pledged not to form a coalition with the AfD, adhering to the post-war political convention that aims to keep the far right out of power. However, he did not hesitate to leverage some of the AfD’s support to rally votes on immigration issues in the lead-up to the election.
Another noteworthy outcome of the election was the response to foreign interference. When US Vice President JD Vance criticized the “firewall,” suggesting that Germany was suppressing its voters, the nation’s mainstream parties rallied together to reject his claims. Similarly, some members of Starmer’s Labour Party are urging him to assertively represent Britain during his upcoming visit to the US.
In an intriguing turn, Elon Musk’s endorsement of Weidel did not lead to a significant boost for her party. Politicians in the UK will likely be relieved to see that Musk’s political influence is not as potent as he might wish.
Moreover, on Monday, Reform UK made it clear that they wanted to distance themselves from the AfD. “There are elements of the AfD that are, in a sense, acceptable to people, and there are elements that are completely unacceptable,” stated deputy leader Richard Tice in an interview with The i Paper. “We focus on what we’re doing well. I’m not particularly interested in other parties.” Even so, the rise of a right-wing party that has prioritized migration issues could ensure that this topic remains prominent in the UK as local elections approach in May, where Reform anticipates strong performances.
The generational divide in Germany also offers valuable lessons for Starmer, especially given that this election occurred amid increasing anxiety among young people. A recent study by the German Institute for Generational Research found that anxiety levels were particularly high among respondents identifying as far-right. Younger voters aged 18 to 24 are the demographic most likely to experience anxiety, according to a survey by the UK’s Mental Health Foundation. This situation suggests there may be emerging electoral pressures that could siphon votes away from mainstream parties in the UK.
Additionally, there is a discernible gender divide in voting patterns. Male voters leaned more towards the centre-right CDU-CSU and the far-right AfD, while female voters showed greater support for the centre-left SPD and the hard-left Die Linke party.
The AfD successfully mobilized 1.8 million non-voters and captured 37 percent of the working-class vote. According to Anand Menon, a professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London, there is a discernible “trend across Europe for the centre to lose vote share.” This trend is not surprising given the recent stagnation in economic growth and rising concerns about security and immigration. One particularly interesting aspect is the AfD’s success in attracting young male voters, a trend that is increasingly visible across Europe. However, this phenomenon is less pronounced in the UK at present, where Reform has yet to develop an economic platform that resonates with a significant number of young people.
The AfD was founded in 2013 by disillusioned CDU members and originally positioned itself as a single-issue, anti-euro party advocating for Germany’s exit from the Eurozone. The trajectory of the party has since evolved dramatically.
Starmer seems to have recognized what generations of German centrist leaders failed to accomplish: the necessity for genuine change. Without economic prosperity and robust public services, outsiders are likely to enter the mainstream and remain entrenched.
