Reconsidering Northern Ireland: A Call for Attention
When was the last time you thought about Northern Ireland? For many, this region is often overlooked in UK media narratives, despite its significance as a vital part of the United Kingdom. With a population nearing two million, if Northern Ireland were a city, it would be the second largest in the country. Yet, it frequently only makes headlines in the wake of tragic events, such as terror attacks. Nearly 27 years since the Good Friday Agreement, it is clear that Northern Ireland deserves greater recognition and respect.
In recent years, discussions surrounding the reunification of the two parts of Ireland have gained momentum. Until quite recently, the idea of a united Ireland was often dismissed, particularly by unionists, rendering it a distant fantasy indulged in by idealists in the south. However, the landscape shifted dramatically following Brexit.
Since 2022, the Irish Times has conducted comprehensive annual surveys examining attitudes toward reunification in both the north and south of Ireland. The findings from this year’s survey are particularly intriguing. In Northern Ireland, support for a united Ireland has risen to 34 percent, an increase of eight percentage points in just two years, with less than half (48 percent) now opposing this notion. Among the Protestant population, support for remaining part of the UK has also risen slightly, now standing at 81 percent. Conversely, within the Catholic community, support for reunification has surged from 55 percent to 63 percent in the same timeframe. If this trend continues—though it may not—it is conceivable that by 2027, a majority across both communities could favor a united Ireland.
Another significant finding is that the proportion of unionists who would find a cross-border poll favoring unity “impossible to accept” has almost halved in two years, dropping from 32 percent to 20 percent. Nevertheless, a one in five opposition remains a considerable minority, and there are persistent risks of reigniting paramilitary resistance.
In the Republic of Ireland, support for reunification has remained relatively stable, hovering around two-thirds of the population. Interestingly, this figure is somewhat lower than one might expect, having fallen slightly to 64 percent over the last two years. This reflects a more pragmatic approach, as many in the south are acutely aware that the UK subsidizes the economy of Northern Ireland to the tune of £10-15 billion annually. With the Republic’s total government expenditure projected at £100 billion this year, reunification could potentially inflate this budget by 10 to 15 percent.
Thus, a critical question arises: would citizens in the south be willing to endure tax increases to accommodate this change? Similarly, about one in five Catholics in the north prefer to remain under UK governance, fully cognizant of the potential financial implications, such as increased healthcare costs, should they move to the Republic’s system.
There is little doubt that Brexit has led to a weakening of traditional loyalties among younger demographics, particularly within the unionist community. The perceived willingness of the UK government to compromise Northern Ireland’s interests during the Brexit negotiations has only intensified these feelings. Despite a decisive 56 to 42 percent vote in favor of Remaining in Northern Ireland, the region was ultimately swept along with the rest of the UK in exiting the EU, leaving lingering resentments, much like those seen in Scotland.
Currently, the new Irish government, under Taoiseach Micheál Martin, faces pressure from Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald to create the conditions for a border poll within the next five years. However, Martin is likely to resist this push, believing that reunification should occur through persuasion and an emphasis on shared interests rather than coercion.
As we marked the centenary of the Anglo-Irish Treaty and the creation of Northern Ireland in 1922, it seems improbable that we will celebrate a 200th anniversary in the same spirit. While a united Ireland may not be on the immediate horizon, I would not dismiss the possibility of it occurring by 2050.
The crux of the matter lies in whether the longstanding religious divide will gradually dissipate over the next three decades. If this fragmentation occurs—largely dependent on a hearts-and-minds campaign from the south—then reunification could indeed follow. However, it is essential to note that it won’t be politicians who drive this change.
For many across the Irish Sea, the prospect of a united Ireland may elicit mixed feelings. While some may be inclined to say good riddance to a complex and seemingly intractable issue, most would feel a profound sense of loss bidding farewell to a land and people that have been integral to the United Kingdom for over two centuries.
Iain Dale presents the Evening Show on LBC Radio, Monday to Thursday, 7-10pm. His book The Taoiseach will be published on 23 October by Swift Press.
